JanusTwoface - Military Mad Scientist, Assassin Bot (Day 2)
(role & alignment by Dariush)
N1 - Killed Org, N2 - none, N3 - none
I'm not sold on the notion that he's confirmed townie. Only Dariush confirmed him, and in turn Toaster confirmed him. His play has been townie enough, but he can play a mean scum game by being too pro-town for our own good. If Dariush is the ext, as I mention later, then JTF could be the ext-op, would have the tech to kill Org, and would be the obvious target of Dariush later claiming PMs; he has gone far to try to clear Dariush.
In order for this theory to work, I, Toaster and JTF have to be (together) dopp, ext and ext-op AND ext-team should be working with dopps. Don't you find that EXTREMELY improbable?
Improbable? maybe. Extremely? not really. I didn't imply dopp involvement was mandatory for that; Toaster could be the ext and lie about his inspection of you, his op, and you merely not choosing to correct him; in this case JTF could still be a misled townie. Only two of the three are needed to be scum, and since you're in the middle (Toaster inspected you, you claimed to JTF), you are the most likely... Or Toaster may be honest, but you have a scan-fooling modulator and felt safe "claiming" to your operative JTF... Other combinations are possible, and some require more coincides than others, but none are "
EXTREMELY improbable", no.
2) Or another possibility: I am actually a Kook. Somebody has to be the kook in a Paranormal. In this game it was me. True fact: If I were a dopp I could have chosen not to believe your claim and instead lynch you over Ottofar.
Nothing says there must be a kook; but it is true that your bussing Ottofar would make no sense.
On the contrary - things have gotten pretty desperate for dopps so it would be the safest course of action to lynch one of fellow dopps to remain out of suspicion.
For the second day in a row? Hardly. Plus things have gotten desperate precisely because Ottofar was lynched. Before that there still were three of them. Jim helped hang both Pandar and Ottofar, and if he had kept his vote on you no one would have thought worse of him, and Ottofar would have been saved. No, I'm pretty sure those who were voting Ottofar at the end of the day (JanusTwoface, Jim Groovester, KaminaSquirtle, Toaster) are not dopps. At least one is likely an alien, though.
Compare this with the Pandar lynch: Janus & Toaster were on it very early; Jim and Kamina got distracted by trying to lynch me first, but came around later, at the same time as Leafsnail; webadict waited until it was clear he wouldn't be saved, and Arg was voting MBP the whole time (as was Mish, incidentally). Ottofar was voting Kamina. Do you see some patterns here?
4) Are you certain it was your stun on webadict that prevented the dopp kill and not Zathras' block on Argembarger? There's no way you can be absolutely certain about that.
2) [Jim,] You said that there MUST be a Kook. Even if I take that lie for a simple mistake, there's still not a single verifiable argument in your favor, and you are the most likely dopp of the currently alive.
4) Web WAS dopp, so in order of that to work dopps would have placed the kill not on the leader, but on an adjectiveless dopp who was already under suspicion.
I understand the draw to the "Jim is dopp" theory; if he had been inspected, and only after that claimed Kook, it would be more damning than claiming on his own, though, and I still think that bussing Ottofar (and pressing him the entire game) would be too much of a gambit; I find it hard to believe that he's the last dopp mostly for that, but I suppose it's possible.
As for the other point, I also think that web was more likely to have the kill last night, and was blocked by your orb; this does not clear Arg, though, as if he was dopp guardian he'd have protected wuba, and my block prevented that. And although Arg was under suspicion, the pressure on him was nowhere close to that on you or Ottofar; he could still have had the kill. The main reason I don't think so is because I was the only one who had been pressing wuba, and I ended the day voting you, so he should have felt confident enough to try it on his own, plus he had no other night actions.
Also, as I pointed out earlier, your blocking him does not clear you either; if Toaster lied or was mistaken about your role, you could be the exterminator and have had both kills last night. I would still like you to post some of the night's flavour (paraphrased) so we have more data for an informed opinion.
Let me review that - Argembarger accused Ottofar, who turned out to be scum... And that makes him scum himself?
It's possible, because he backed off too easily from those accusations. Ottofar was endlessly scummy, and still Arg didn't end the day voting him (he was voting you). If he had kept the pressure up on Ottofar, it would make his case look better, but he gave up too quickly and without enough reason; it ended up looking more like a lame attempt at distance than real scumhunting.
By the way, this last comment of yours is directed to someone who did accuse (and hang!) Ottofar, who turned out to be scum, so if you think Arg's attack on Ottofar makes it less likely he's scum, why is it not so for Jim? You are being inconsistent there.
Overall, I find your arguments scummy and insufficient. I don't think you are the dopp, but I am more inclined to think you are the exterminator. It would require that out of Toaster and Janus one is an alien and the other a misguided townie (in either order), or other coincidences, but I don't think that stretches the limits of the possible.
Arg will likely hang today, and you tomorrow. Neither of you has yet said anything to change this.