Night two was projected to have something like 140-200 zombies. We had something like 91 defense.
So we struck upon a brilliant plan. If we all upgraded to hovels, at least some of us would get lucky and survive the brutal onslaught. I dutifully did my part, and even cut some extra boards for others. After that, there was nothing to do but wait...
Needless to say, we all died screaming deaths in our own homes that night. 150 zombies on night two is decidedly not cool.
Same in our town (incoming 120-140 zombies on night two, and we only had 44 defense due to fighting over which to build first, watchtower or workshop).
We finally managed to build the workshop in the early morning, but everybody was depressed and ready to suicide when they saw the estimate.
I posted the following:
whoof, just got back to town, see what you mean. Heh.
It's math time, kids!
Scenario 1, leaving defense as is:
130 Zs (average) - 44 def = 86 Zs past the walls divided by 38 people = 2.2 per person if they're evenly distributed.
Everyone dies, save a lucky few if more than 2 zeds pile up on some people. Let's call it 95% casualties.
Scenario 2:
If we build Screaming Saws (missing just 1 wrought iron and 1 patch) it will add 40 ----
130 Zs (average) - 84 def = 46 Zs past the gates, divided by 38 people = 1.21 per person
This means (on average again) everyone gets one zombie, and an unlucky few (20%) will get 2 zombies. If you have a tent, you can handle one zombie.
80% will live, only 20% will die.
That's a huge improvement over Scenario 1! C'mon people! We can do this!
Rallying the citizenry with the power of !!SCIENCE!!, we built the Screaming Saws with an hour to spare before the attack. Almost everybody was drunk or drugged from the feverish frenzy of construction.
Zombie attack. As I predicted, 132 zombies attacked, 36 made it past the walls. 13 citizens died in their homes. I lied about having four chances out of five surviving - a third of the town died that night.
Now here I sit, one of the last four citizens alive in the Paralysed Hill of Bloody Tears on Day 5. One so-called "hero" ignored our pleas to help clean out the corpses and made a beeline for the bank, building a lvl-5 fort for himself and grabbing all the sheet metal and concrete blocks.
We laugh at him - he thinks himself secure in his 12-defense fort, he thinks he alone will survive to see tomorrow. We are too few to make a reliable estimate from the watchtower, but I still have my notes.
If none of us four choose to die outside the walls, there will be at least fifty zombies for every one of us.