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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia XVII - It all ends in flames...  (Read 57256 times)

Azure Sepulchre

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #270 on: October 29, 2010, 11:56:26 pm »

Well... fuck. -_- A cop with a guilty would be handy right about now.

As for me, I'm gonna go re-read through the thread and compile a scumtell list on those still with us. I musta missed something big if the maf don't even feel threatened by me.
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Jetsquirrel

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #271 on: October 30, 2010, 03:32:22 am »

Hmmm who did kaminasquirtle investigate or was clinging on to?

Jetsquirrel

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #272 on: October 30, 2010, 03:40:11 am »

and who seemed the most suspicious in the ottofar votes? Since Ottofar himself presented himself as a easy lynch for scum due to his ehm... accusions on me (Elegy), while i clearly somewhere said that he was a BROKEN TOWNIE

Jetsquirrel

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #273 on: October 30, 2010, 03:41:13 am »

damnit i keep forgetting to direct these questions so Azure what do you think?

Murphy

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #274 on: October 30, 2010, 05:19:57 am »

Hmmm who did kaminasquirtle investigate or was clinging on to?
I think Kamina got NKd not because of what threat he was, but just because he was mostly out of suspicion. The mafia are likely to leave suspicious people alive, because these can serve as daytime scapegoats, allowing the real scum to hide. Remember when I said that if Ottofar actually flips town, then Azure will likely survive the night, because he's either a mafia himself, or a good daytime target for them to blame?

I musta missed something big if the maf don't even feel threatened by me.
What if you are a mafia yourself?
Note that I'm not accusing you yet, but the following scenario looks plausible:
1) You see an opportunity to press against Elegy, and use it.
2) After seeing that this opportunity is too weak, you stop pressing it.
3) Seeing Ottofar accept your arguments against Elegy, you now rush to accuse Ottofar, claiming your own previous actions to be a clever gambit.
4) ...
5) PROFIT!!! (not for the town, sadly)

On the other hand...
During day 1, noone else besides me had suggested that Azure might be a mafia. It went unnoticed, or at least did not spark any discussion. But if he's actually a mafia, then he should notice that and become wary of me. Combined with the fact that I'm mostly out of suspicion right now (like Kamina was), this would make me an ideal NK target. But Kamina was killed instead, so I must conclude that Azure is not a mafia.

Which of the reasons is better, I leave for others to discuss. If someone sees any flaws in my logic, please point them out.
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Spade

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #275 on: October 30, 2010, 07:08:55 am »

Quote
Combined with the fact that I'm mostly out of suspicion right now (like Kamina was), this would make me an ideal NK target.
Saying you're not suspicious makes you suspicious.
Murphy, what did you think about Ottofar's town flip?

and who seemed the most suspicious in the ottofar votes? Since Ottofar himself presented himself as a easy lynch for scum due to his ehm... accusions on me (Elegy), while i clearly somewhere said that he was a BROKEN TOWNIE

I don't remember you saying that. Even if you did, that was just a guess. For all we knew you two could be scumbuddies.
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DungeonEscape
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Murphy

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #276 on: October 30, 2010, 08:58:57 am »

Saying you're not suspicious makes you suspicious.
Why?
I'm just trying to look through the eyes of a mafia. Whom would they consider unsuspicious and thus good target? Surely one of those who had drawn few to none FoS during day one, which couldn't be said about Ragnarok, Jetsquirrel, Flintus and probably Mindmaker as well.

Murphy, what did you think about Ottofar's town flip?
I'm trying to figure out at what point we screwed it up.
A plausible scenario is that Azure's gambit wasn't a gambit initially, but a genuine attack, which he later dropped and then claimed it to be a trap in which Ottofar has fallen. But I want to hear other theories and see if I like them better.
Another possibility is that Elegy/Jetsquirrel (who had that strife with Ottofar) is a mafia, but I don't think so. There was arguing, and some of it was quite ugly, but no scumtells, as far as I noticed.
It may also be a whole town-on-town aggression, while the real mafia lurks in a corner and chuckles evilly. Maybe.

So what do you think of our situation, Spade?

P.S. On a side note, my first thought was "WTF? There weren't 5 votes, how come he is lynched?".
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Spade

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #277 on: October 30, 2010, 09:53:38 am »

Saying you're not suspicious makes you suspicious.
Why?
I'm just trying to look through the eyes of a mafia. Whom would they consider unsuspicious and thus good target? Surely one of those who had drawn few to none FoS during day one, which couldn't be said about Ragnarok, Jetsquirrel, Flintus and probably Mindmaker as well.
I understand, but you shouldn't say you're not suspicious, since it makes it sound like you're saying that there's no way you're maf, which isn't true. I know that's not what you meant to say, but it's what it sounds like to me.

Murphy, what did you think about Ottofar's town flip?
I'm trying to figure out at what point we screwed it up.
A plausible scenario is that Azure's gambit wasn't a gambit initially, but a genuine attack, which he later dropped and then claimed it to be a trap in which Ottofar has fallen. But I want to hear other theories and see if I like them better.
Another possibility is that Elegy/Jetsquirrel (who had that strife with Ottofar) is a mafia, but I don't think so. There was arguing, and some of it was quite ugly, but no scumtells, as far as I noticed. It may also be a whole town-on-town aggression, while the real mafia lurks in a corner and chuckles evilly. Maybe.

So what do you think of our situation, Spade?

P.S. On a side note, my first thought was "WTF? There weren't 5 votes, how come he is lynched?".
I think the situation is pretty bad. We have seven people, none of which are non-suspicious. If I had to guess, I'd still say one of the people who voted for Ottofar were mafia. I want to see what everyone else has to say first before accusing anyone though.

Flintus10: What did you think at the end of D1? What about now?
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Mindmaker

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #278 on: October 30, 2010, 10:17:41 am »

If anyone is wondering why I'm not posting, let me assure you I will do that soon.
Just been busy today, but I'll try to wrap up my thoughts, suspicions and theories in one big post this evening.
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Mindmaker

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #279 on: October 30, 2010, 12:31:40 pm »

Wel, well, that's been an interesting turn of events.

Flintus/Azure:
What do you think about Ottofar turning out to be town?
What will you do now? Any new "targets" (Oh how ambiguous!)?
And how do you see my role in all of this? I was supposed to be the scumbuddy, isn't that right?

Jetsquirrel, KaminaSquirtle had asked you an interesting question, right before he died, which you unfortunately couldn't answer.

Quote
the reason is that Ottofar is broken and condemned to death my 4rth vote would not make much difference at that point
So why remove it?  What would that gain you?

What, indeed.
Since he was a dead man anyway, what was the point of unvoting? Washing our hands from Ottofars demolition, aren't we?

Not the big post I had hoped to come up with, but it's a good start.
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Jetsquirrel

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #280 on: October 30, 2010, 12:46:45 pm »

I also thought about azure being scum, his attack and defense seems to be just too good.....
Like someone is actually giving him stuff to argument about, which he himself could not think off. But i have never ( i think) seen or red a game where azure has played.

Quote
About 55 hours back I said I wouldn't vote because there still was time left. There still was opportunity to fish for information; too bad we got next to none, only confusion. However, Ottofar still seems the most likely to turn out to be scum. As KaminaSquirtle has pointed out, a real townie would at least attempt to make his death a credit to the team.

I find this vote also suspicous, there is no evidence backing that ottofar was SCUM at all. Because at some point there were 3 options for him,
1. He could defend himself makin him look even scummier
2. He could blame someone else, which would lead to a discussion about diverting attention to a other player to make himself look less scummy
3. He could do nothing,

but what he did was nothing... Because he knew he was town, i did exactly the same in a mafia and i turned out town.
 In the start Elegy questioned why there were 3 votes on murphy and azure jumped on him what looked like protecting.
And Flintus lurked in the start of the game quite much and activly attacked ottofar because it could be a easy lynch for you.

so Flintus what do you have to say about this blob of text?

Quote
Jetsquirrel, KaminaSquirtle had asked you an interesting question, right before he died, which you unfortunately couldn't answer.

Because i knew he was a townie, he acted like me when he broke. He got pinned down by both scum and town, and struggling would seem even more scummy. see first post of this thing

Mindmaker

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #281 on: October 30, 2010, 01:07:48 pm »

Because i knew he was a townie, he acted like me when he broke. He got pinned down by both scum and town, and struggling would seem even more scummy. see first post of this thing

There is no "knowing" in this game.
Even though I "defended" (well at least that's what people called it) him, it was just calculated risk.
There's no knowing, if you're town at least.

I forgot to include another question in my previous post, Jetsquirrel.
One I had already posted before.

You got asked, how you would rate Elegy and I found the question to be a bit imprecise.

Ehhhh..... dunno? I'd say 7. He seemed to defend himself properly but didn't attack anyone ( i think)

Let me rephrase that question:
On a scale from 1-10 how well did Elegy play as a
 a.) townie?
 b.) a member of the mafia?

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Jetsquirrel

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #282 on: October 30, 2010, 01:43:56 pm »

Ehhhh..... dunno? I'd say 7. He seemed to defend himself properly but didn't attack anyone ( i think)

Let me rephrase that question:
On a scale from 1-10 how well did Elegy play as a
 a.) townie?
 b.) a member of the mafia?

A. 5 B. 5 C. why both fives? he didnt act suspicious nor did he try to really blame someone for being scum expect ottofar which turned out to be town.

And you're right there is no knowing, but there is a high chance of guessing , Because i experience exactly the same what happended to Ottofar. So i could guess almost precisly that he was TOWN

webadict

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #283 on: October 30, 2010, 07:17:05 pm »

I'm just going to post this now:

Town is going to lose hardcore in this game.

Seriously, do any of you know what you're looking for?

Here's a good lesson for all of you. List what you think a Town player will do, and then list what you think a scum player will do. Don't worry. I have no idea who's Town and who's not, but I'm simply going to tell you why you're all going to lose1.

I realize I'm not your IC, but there's only one way to stop you guys from losing every time, and that's to show you why you're so dreadfully unaware.

So, please, while you're playing, just list out what it is you think you're looking for, and I'll help point you guys in the right direction. This will also help scum by identifying some startling easy catches on your part.

1: This is referring to the Town only.
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Toaster

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Re: Beginner's Mafia XVII - Day Two: A picture of Death
« Reply #284 on: October 30, 2010, 09:39:13 pm »

Phone post, so no votecount, sorry.

Apologies to Flintus- he PMed me in the night and said that he would be away for day start but would return. I meant to post that at day start- oops!

Web- feel free to be co-town IC with Vector. I haven't seen her in a couple days.
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