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Author Topic: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O  (Read 14972912 times)

kaijyuu

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44835 on: February 27, 2014, 01:42:33 pm »

I'll tentatively say yes :P
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LeoLeonardoIII

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44836 on: February 27, 2014, 01:51:12 pm »

I'd like to think that, if the car has sensors, and it records what a human does under various sensor conditions (a vehicle ahead is slowing down and has brake lights on, or you need to change lanes into a turn lane but there is oncoming traffic which might also do the same), that after recording millions of driver-hours it would be able to construct stimulus-response rules.

Then get rid of the driver who is sleepy and drunk and smacking his kid in the back seat and eating a Big Mac and putting on lipstick and cooking waffles using the cigarette lighter port, and give the car sensors in all directions, and I think you'd end up with cars that are safer than with human drivers.

And that's the goal: you don't need cars to be perfectly safe, just safer than humans.

Eventually you can get safer AI cars that can maintain 120 MPH freeway speeds flawlessly, but that'll probably happen long after the cars are in production and general use.
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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44837 on: February 27, 2014, 01:56:26 pm »

Then get rid of the driver who is sleepy and drunk and smacking his kid in the back seat and eating a Big Mac and putting on lipstick and cooking waffles using the cigarette lighter port, and give the car sensors in all directions, and I think you'd end up with cars that are safer than with human drivers.
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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44838 on: February 27, 2014, 01:59:13 pm »

It's only funny until you get rammed into by someone doing it.
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i2amroy

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44839 on: February 27, 2014, 02:00:38 pm »

The one thing I'm not sure self-driving cars will accomplish anytime soon is defensive driving. Sure, they can obey all the rules of the road just fine, but can they deal with a car swerving in front of them? Honest question.
Mostly. They certainly are getting to the point where they can take evasive action more then just slamming on the brakes. Can they take preemptive measures such as backing off when a car near them is acting erratically? Not at the moment. They do counter this by having two other things greatly in their favor, reaction time and situation awareness. A computer will never be blindsided by another car swerving into the lane, or not see them until too late because they were looking the other direction or changing the radio station. They also react near instantly to surprise situations, compared to the average human highway driver reaction time of ~2.5 seconds (for a total surprise, things like emergency lights shorten this time drastically). At a 70 mph highway speed, that means your car will move about 250ft farther before stopping if you are slamming on the brakes vs. a computer doing it, and that extra distance means that for a lot of situations your computer is still going to do a better job at stopping/slowing in time to avoid a car swerving into your lane even if you had taken some space precautions against that vehicle. (All on top of the fact that every autonomous car on the road means one less that will randomly swerve into your lane).
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LeoLeonardoIII

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44840 on: February 27, 2014, 02:04:27 pm »

OK but we will need one set of autonomous car instructions for Russia and another for everyone else. For a while I figured they were just wildcat mad dog driving hooligans but I've become convinced their rules of the road are just extremely different.
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kaijyuu

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44841 on: February 27, 2014, 02:04:52 pm »

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GlyphGryph

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44842 on: February 27, 2014, 02:05:53 pm »

Edit: Ninjaed by i2amroy :(

The one thing I'm not sure self-driving cars will accomplish anytime soon is defensive driving. Sure, they can obey all the rules of the road just fine, but can they deal with a car swerving in front of them? Honest question.

They can already do this better than your average human driver. Significantly faster reaction speed and the ability to effectively process 360 degrees of detail with precision make for a huge boon.

In fact, every test I've seen has indicated that the prototypes we have are already significantly better at prolonged driving than human beings, and are safer overall by a big margin even in this early stage.

It's not that humans can't drive better than autonomous cars - at least so far, they can. It's that they don't. The attention of autonomous cars does not wander, they do not get distracted, they do not fall asleep, and they do not get surprised.

The barrier for "being statistically better than humans" is actually incredibly low, and all evidence points to them already doing significantly better even in situations where they have to deal with humans. Since these cars wouldn't actually swerve randomly, their presence actually aids other humans already on the road and makes it EVEN SAFER overall - a double-win.

I would much, much, MUCH rather every car on the road be driven by robots than have to deal with another day of your average Boston driver, I can say that for sure...

Now, these cars certainly have their limitations, mostly in terms of navigation, but as far as safety is concerned it's mostly a whole lot of panic for no reason at all, and a general belief among those distrustful of technology that machines have to be perfect (instead of just better than what they are replacing) in order to be acceptable.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44843 on: February 27, 2014, 02:06:56 pm »

We're going to have a utopian society in 2026 thanks to electric car batteries.

That's hardly a scientific article. :c That's just a PR newletter paid for by MS/Tesla & Co to reaffirm their 'predictions' that Tesla will [eventually, maybe, hopefully] go up thanks to a completely unrelated industry being full of potential. After it finally reached a point where the previous 'predictions' [guesses] were no longer laughed at.

Remember, Tesla can't even crash-proof their [proprietary] car batteries that they trumpet everywhere, let alone design a safe autonomous car. That'd be much more investment that they, honestly, haven't done since they spend all their R&D money on the Solar Car issues/safety.

They'd essentially be de-tracking from their main business to jump into one they have zero exposure in, which, quite simply, would be suicide for a company like Tesla as they're running on the 'solar/hip rich person car' momentum. Not trying to leech off Googles automated car push might be the only thing that differentiates them in term of high tech car companies.

Tesla is a good buy @~100, no more, no less.

The one thing I'm not sure self-driving cars will accomplish anytime soon is defensive driving. Sure, they can obey all the rules of the road just fine, but can they deal with a car swerving in front of them? Honest question.

They can already do this better than your average human driver. Significantly faster reaction speed and the ability to effectively process 360 degrees of detail with precision make for a huge boon.

In fact, every test I've seen has indicated that the prototypes we have are already significantly better at prolonged driving than human beings, and are safer overall by a big margin even in this early stage.

It's not that humans can't drive better than autonomous cars - at least so far, they can. It's that they don't. The attention of autonomous cars does not wander, they do not get distracted, they do not fall asleep, and they do not get surprised.

The barrier for "being statistically better than humans" is actually incredibly low, and all evidence points to them already doing significantly better even in situations where they have to deal with humans. Since these cars wouldn't actually swerve randomly, their presence actually aids other humans already on the road and makes it EVEN SAFER overall - a double-win.

I would much, much, MUCH rather every car on the road be driven by robots than have to deal with another day of your average Boston driver, I can say that for sure...

Now, these cars certainly have their limitations, mostly in terms of navigation, but as far as safety is concerned it's mostly a whole lot of panic for no reason at all, and a general belief among those distrustful of technology that machines have to be perfect (instead of just better than what they are replacing) in order to be acceptable.

Still; Tesla doesn't make those nor have they begun to spend the [massive amounts of required] money doing so.

Remember, this is a company ran by an 'idea guy' at heart. I like Musk, but he has a tendency to abandon his pet projects if they don't make enough money for him.

Note this is disputing Tesla's laughable assertion that they are any kind of position to take advantage of the self-controlled car industry, not about the self-controlled car viability itself. I just know Tesla inside-out through my DD and can say they are lightyears away in terms of both time and spending to be able to produce anything of the sort.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 02:12:42 pm by Mictlantecuhtli »
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Xantalos

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44844 on: February 27, 2014, 02:07:40 pm »

On this very forum.

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GlyphGryph

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44845 on: February 27, 2014, 02:14:12 pm »

Oh yeah it's got nothing to do with Tesla, not disagreeing there. Just responding to Kai's comments.
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Putnam

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44846 on: February 27, 2014, 02:25:35 pm »

The one thing I'm not sure self-driving cars will accomplish anytime soon is defensive driving. Sure, they can obey all the rules of the road just fine, but can they deal with a car swerving in front of them? Honest question.

I know I'm late, but... why wouldn't they? These aren't dumb robots going on predetermined routes.

i2amroy

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44847 on: February 27, 2014, 02:33:06 pm »

The one thing I'm not sure self-driving cars will accomplish anytime soon is defensive driving. Sure, they can obey all the rules of the road just fine, but can they deal with a car swerving in front of them? Honest question.
I know I'm late, but... why wouldn't they? These aren't dumb robots going on predetermined routes.
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Zangi

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44848 on: February 27, 2014, 02:38:10 pm »

Seriously? That guy believes we'll get completely autonomous cars in eight years? People have made the same predictions in the 1980s, and we really haven't advanced that much in the autonomous cars direction since the 1980s.
I will go out of my way to not purchase one of these fancy cars.  My spawns, if I ever do get any will not get an autonomous car.  They will learn to drive first before I even give em any support in acquiring an autonomous car.
I'm pretty sure I am not alone in this thinking.  It will take decades to ween a nation like the US off of non-autonomous vehicles.  If they don't just outright ban/outlaw non-autonomous vehicles. 
Even then, there will still be a need for people to drive things like tractors and other off-road stuff.  Yea, knowing how to drive non-autonomous vehicles in a future where most if not all vehicles are autonomous may be a valuable skill...

There is also my belief that it'll take a bit for all the critical bugs to be worked out... so even if I am for this change, I wouldn't be an early adopter...

The one thing I'm not sure self-driving cars will accomplish anytime soon is defensive driving. Sure, they can obey all the rules of the road just fine, but can they deal with a car swerving in front of them? Honest question.

I know I'm late, but... why wouldn't they? These aren't dumb robots going on predetermined routes.
Defensive driving is pretty easy. 
1. Keep the appropriate amount of distance behind the vehicle it is behind.  (Heck, I personally can shadow people ahead of me by keeping the same rough distance between myself and them without having to touch the brakes unless they slow down a lot or stop.)
2. Turn signals and turn signal detection/understanding.
3. Pedestrian/biker at your side of road, slow down and avoid.  If vehicle coming from opposite way.  Slow down and mind the distance, stop/let other vehicle pass if pedestrian/biker is an asshole taking up the road.
4. If oncoming vehicle is leaning toward yourside of the road or swerving a bit, hug your side of the road as you pass.
5. Understanding right of way from signs and the stop/slow/go lights.  (Also understanding when it is against the law to turn on red.)

And so on... this is probably the most basic things you need to know... which should theoretically be possible for a bot with working sensors to not fuck up.

Of course... if your sensors are broken... that is probably where manual driving comes in.
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LeoLeonardoIII

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #44849 on: February 27, 2014, 02:53:02 pm »

Oh here's an interesting thought. I think people frequently drive badly because they selfishly want to get where they're going sooner at the expense of everyone else getting there a little later and/or less safely. You'll see some guy weaving through traffic on the freeway, not because he enjoys it, but because he foolishly didn't give himself enough time to get where he's going. Or perhaps encountered some petty "emergency" which he feels that he needs to attend to ASAP.

A robot car wouldn't do that. You tell it where you want to go and it drives you there as best it can.

We have a car company putting a vacuum cleaner in a car and nannying you into being unable to use it while driving - similarly, in our car we can't have a passenger use the navigation system while the car is in motion because the designer figured the driver would be doing it and driving distracted as a result. Shortsighted, unnecessary, but possibly safer than letting it work how you would want.

Because of this existent climate of car companies trying to make safer cars, I don't think they would add in a feature where you could tell the AI how important your time is and let it make riskier decisions and/or drive more aggressively in order to save time. For one thing, every driver would set it to maximum at all times, much like some people seem to think every email they send is "high importance". Since nobody would set it to 1 of 5, even on a leisurely cruise, why even give them the option?

There's also the public opinion that the AI driver is going to make a lot of mistakes, and to counter that the car company can't afford to include an option that allows the owner to let the AI take greater risks. They want to look as safe as possible at the start, and what happens in the beginning will affect the cultural expectations for AI drivers in the future.

However I don't doubt that some high-end cars will feature an "Emergency Driving" mode that is more aggressive. This perfectly mirrors the self-fulfilling stigma of the "Jackass BMW Driver".

Anyway, the end result is that in the beginning you will have cars with an AI Assist, which alerts you to hazards and makes suggestions, like an extension of the navigation system. Or you'll have an AI Driver which can do the work while you sit back and eat your waffles (finally! in peace!). Or you can take control and just drive yourself.

And everyone will just choose to drive themselves because they can be jerks and speed and cut people off and swerve around under trucks. As long as the alternative is getting where you're going at an average of 30 MPH city / 60 MPH freeway, people will choose to drive manually and go 40 / 75+. They'll rationalize it as "I'm a great driver and I don't want to let the fallible AI make a mistake and get me into a wreck".

Here's another issue: what happens when a wreck does occur and neither driver is using an autopilot? Are they both automatically somewhat negligent by not using the safer autopilot? If one driver is using an autopilot and is technically at fault but the AI failed to work correctly and avoid the crash, and the other driver is driving manually, can we say that the autopilot driver was really at fault, or was it his car? Is he negligent in letting a possibly faulty autopilot drive? Is the other guy assumed to be at fault because we trust the autopilot more than a manual driver?

What if someone hacks their car to think it's in autopilot mode when it's really manually-driven, thus allowing the driver to engage autopilot post-wreck and claim he was on autopilot the whole time, fooling even the car's black box? What if a driver hacks his car and sets its risk acceptance level higher than normal?

Will insurance companies start charging more if you drive manually? Will they demand access to your black box records in order to charge an appropriate amount? In which case, what privacy rights do the car owners have when the insurance company inevitably sells their black box records to advertisers and car-theft rings?
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