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Author Topic: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O  (Read 14938810 times)

None

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160305 on: July 13, 2022, 10:00:22 am »

1488 wasn't well known as a dogwhistle until fairly recently. If it is old enough, it is possible for it to be unintentional.

An unintentional 1/10,000 yeah. Assuming even probabilities between digits and I guess it looks like a year but eh.

Dudes born on Jan 4th 1988 and is adamant to not change his email address.

He also named the video file "fuck you bitches watch this" and helpfully told the people who hit my car to just bounce after leaving the note since he figured I didn't live in the area, sooooo.

also I guess I bumped into one of his ex-girlfriends at the bar the other day and apparently he's hard into drugs, like not weed or 'moon rocks' (???) but drugs.

On the bright side, the fuzz found the people who hit my car and they have insurance, so besides the possibility that my car is totaled, everything's coming up Millhouse.

can i leave the country yet?
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Frumple

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160306 on: July 13, 2022, 11:39:25 am »

Has anyone else noticed that the sun seems to make people mind-numbingly dumb?
I have lived in florida my entire life. There is nothing you, or anyone else, could do at this point to convince me otherwise. Heat is the mind killer.
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heydude6

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160307 on: July 13, 2022, 01:08:33 pm »

Has anyone else noticed that the sun seems to make people mind-numbingly dumb?
I have lived in florida my entire life. There is nothing you, or anyone else, could do at this point to convince me otherwise. Heat is the mind killer.

There is genuine correlation that states that countries with hot climates tend to have worse economic well-being than countries with cold climates. Economists haven't yet figured out why, but the link is real.

Some notable examples: Brazil, the continent of Africa, Mexico, The Middle East

You can contrast them with notable chill darlings like: Scandanavia, Britain, Canada

There are of course exceptions (ie. Russia for cold, Australia for hot), but they're just outliers on an otherwise solid trend.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2022, 01:11:00 pm by heydude6 »
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Great Order

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160308 on: July 13, 2022, 01:21:56 pm »

Problem is history's a nice big n=1 study. Anything caused by random chance can't be evened out by repeats.
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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160309 on: July 13, 2022, 01:41:04 pm »

Italy is hot but smart, which bucks the trend. I think the more reliable indicator is access to fish in the diet, since populations with rich fish access have smarter populations whatever the weather. But all this determinism talk reminds of ancient wives tales about how the hot weather made Spanish and Italian men hornier. It is a hilarious idea, and you may very well find people who will live up to the stereotype for the fun of it, but at the end of the day there isn't a logical thesis or evidence basis for the prejudice

TD1

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160310 on: July 13, 2022, 02:17:51 pm »

I mean, there's an inherent bias anyway if the tales are coming from ancient wives. An element of wishful thinking one might say  :P
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EuchreJack

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160311 on: July 13, 2022, 02:23:37 pm »

Hey, check out the first page of this topic sometime!

How far we've come!

Now that I think of it, there was a thread for this like a month ago. And god I hate emoticons


Today a cop came up to me while I was walking with a pal outside and asked me what I was doing in the neighbourhood, how long I was here and what suburb I live in.

Apparently one of the neighbours called because they didn't recognize me, since I'm only here to babysit my nephews for the week.
There is a surprising amount of Dicks on this forum.
...and how far we have yet to go.  :P

heydude6

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160312 on: July 13, 2022, 02:47:51 pm »

but at the end of the day there isn't a logical thesis or evidence basis for the prejudice

My entire point is that there is a scientific (if you can consider data science a science) consensus on there being a negative correlation between heat and economic prosperity. The only question left is whether this is an incredibly unlikely, but ultimately random coincidence caused by history rolling a nat 1, or if there's actually a cause for it. You can come up with a lot of potential theories for it.

Maybe the heat is correlated with darker skin color, which encourages victimization by white people. Maybe heat makes you a juicier target for colonialism. Maybe hot places like desserts are harder to extract resources from leading to less productivity. There are all sorts of interesting theories you can come up with to explain this one. You just have to look at history and see which one is correct.

Ultimately, you can dismiss any weird idea as just being an old wive's tale, but we can only ever make progress by investigating these things with science.
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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160313 on: July 13, 2022, 03:03:16 pm »

I mean, there's an inherent bias anyway if the tales are coming from ancient wives. An element of wishful thinking one might say  :P
I don't mean to be spreading humours in the forum but Plotina's got me acting Roman

My entire point is that there is a scientific (if you can consider data science a science) consensus on there being a negative correlation between heat and economic prosperity. The only question left is whether this is an incredibly unlikely, but ultimately random coincidence caused by history rolling a nat 1, or if there's actually a cause for it. You can come up with a lot of potential theories for it.

Maybe the heat is correlated with darker skin color, which encourages victimization by white people. Maybe heat makes you a juicier target for colonialism. Maybe hot places like desserts are harder to extract resources from leading to less productivity. There are all sorts of interesting theories you can come up with to explain this one. You just have to look at history and see which one is correct.

Ultimately, you can dismiss any weird idea as just being an old wive's tale, but we can only ever make progress by investigating these things with science.
That's one way to look at it, but I've got a PI boss who can't stand wasting resources chasing after theories before you've even established a likely cause you can isolate. E.g. it would be worthwhile establishing what plausible link between hot weather and economic progress exists before you start throwing money and researchers into the fray. Temperature is one of those things which is frankly annoying to define for such a theory.

-Do you use mean average temperature
-Do you use upper/lower boundaries of temperature
-What about those countries which have alternating seasons of hot and cold
-What about those countries which consist of hot states, cold states and everything in between (e.g. China & USA)
-What about prosperous hot countries like Singapore and Malaysia
-What about prosperous hot countries which have since declined like Sri Lanka
-What about cold countries which have since delined like Russia or Mongolia
-What about neighbouring cold countries and hot countries where the hot country is doing better (e.g. cold Chile vs hot Argentina)
-What about neighbouring hot countries where one hot country is doing worse and one is doing better (e.g. Namibia vs Botswana)

There are so many factors which are far more deserving of attention, such that temperature alone deserves only to be a footnote in some other factor's theory. E.g. freshwater access is far more likely to be a reliable indicator of a country's economic potential just by virtue of how cheaply it can sustain its own population. Because a hot country with good water freshwater access (e.g. Egypt) is going to be able to do much more than a hot country without (e.g. Chad) or a cold country which is struggling to secure freshwater access (e.g. Kyrgyzstan).
This is why I place my bets behind fish access, because at least fish access has a plausible cause and effect already in place. More fish access = bigger brains and bigger brains = more economic stuff because big brain people have a fetish for taxable actions

Il Palazzo

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160314 on: July 13, 2022, 03:27:49 pm »

A thousand+ years ago you were more likely to find the richest sociopolitical entities in the hot areas. The current bias can be easily explained by the glut of the presently richest countries sharing historical roots in western Europe. Whatever made those Europeans develop prosperous economies would then be to blame (cf. Jared Diamond's 'Guns, Germs, and Steel' for an attempt at rationalising the discrepancy).
Furthermore, describing the current distribution as 'incredibly unlikely' without putting some numbers to work is kinda a meaningless statement. There are, what, some 200 countries in the world as of today? With these many (i.e. few) points, any distribution you can dream of arising by chance would be rather quite firmly in the realm of credibility. (not that I think it's pure chance)
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scriver

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160315 on: July 13, 2022, 03:39:02 pm »

I feel I need to add that while Russia is cold as fuck in the winter, isn't it also really hot in the summer?
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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160316 on: July 13, 2022, 03:55:32 pm »

Perhaps Northern states (forged in the collapse of Rome, and from distinct Germanic and Celtic peoples) simply provided a melting pot for various intellectual traditions.
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WealthyRadish

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160317 on: July 13, 2022, 04:32:48 pm »

Maybe the heat is correlated with darker skin color, which encourages victimization by white people. Maybe heat makes you a juicier target for colonialism. Maybe hot places like desserts are harder to extract resources from leading to less productivity. There are all sorts of interesting theories you can come up with to explain this one. You just have to look at history and see which one is correct.

Here's one:

Northern and Eastern Europe spent its pre-modern history as an economic backwater with very low agricultural productivity and low urbanization/surplus compared to almost anywhere with a warmer climate (partly as a consequence of a short growing season with inefficient crops) and this trend only reversed slowly as a result of colonialism and early exploitation of fossil fuels (or adjacency to economies more directly benefiting from colonialism or industrialization).

Pre-industrial colonialism was made possible by:

1) Unusual incentives related to economic backwardness (Europe's ruling class imported luxury products from richer but distant places while having virtually nothing to trade in return, creating centuries of grinding deflation until they stumbled ass-backwards into pillaging precious metals from the Americas and militarily imposing maritime trade monopolies in Asia)
2) Access to the Chinese/Indian/wherever technology from the Mongols which some other backwaters lacked (not getting destroyed by the Mongols in the process also helps)
3) Weak and violent states (by global standards) fighting each other endlessly for 800+ years with little consolidation or interruption, recreating the state/military modernization process that incidentally also happened 2000 years earlier in China
4) A pre-modern tradition of thin and high walls that incentivized use of heavy artillery (this incentive was absent in places that entered the gunpowder era with better economies and thicker walls, but heavy cannons on ships, walls, and in sieges ended up being the future)

Exploiting fossil fuels in industrial machinery first was made possible by:

1) Northern China's 13th century huge coal+iron industry getting destroyed and the region depopulated by the Mongols in a 100 year conquest that erased its innovations and memory until modern times
2) British and European lack of sustainable forest management eventually creating a non-industrial market demand for household coal-use in Britain (coal is extremely undesirable for household use compared to burning wood and wouldn't have been mined if European forestry had been less unsustainable)
3) Britain's high water table compared to northern China (ideas behind steam engines had been around for thousands of years in various places, but it turns out one of the few places where the extremely inefficient prototypes with very high bulk fuel transport costs are economical is when pumping water out of a coal mine itself, which is unnecessary in dry Chinese coal mines)
« Last Edit: July 13, 2022, 04:38:19 pm by WealthyRadish »
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160318 on: July 13, 2022, 05:05:32 pm »

None of those hold up to much scrutiny.


1) Unusual incentives related to economic backwardness (Europe's ruling class imported luxury products from richer but distant places while having virtually nothing to trade in return, creating centuries of grinding deflation until they stumbled ass-backwards into pillaging precious metals from the Americas and militarily imposing maritime trade monopolies in Asia)
2) Access to the Chinese/Indian/wherever technology from the Mongols which some other backwaters lacked (not getting destroyed by the Mongols in the process also helps)
3) Weak and violent states (by global standards) fighting each other endlessly for 800+ years with little consolidation or interruption, recreating the state/military modernization process that incidentally also happened 2000 years earlier in China
4) A pre-modern tradition of thin and high walls that incentivized use of heavy artillery (this incentive was absent in places that entered the gunpowder era with better economies and thicker walls, but heavy cannons on ships, walls, and in sieges ended up being the future)


1. Very few states had any major precious metal influx from the New World. Only Spain did so in huge quantity (the English and Dutch stole a fair bit of this), and the economic effects of that much specie were not good. One of the big contributors that led to Hapsburg Spain being replaced by Bourbon Spain was that massive inflation had gutted the economy.

Equally important, the trade networks in question brought great wealth to everyone involved. It wasn't just a matter of "all our gold and silver goes out, spices and silks come in". The crippling effect you're talking about didn't happen.

2. Any technology desired could flow along the same trade networks, and Europe wasn't the total technological backwater that people think it was. The biggest difference between Europe and elsewhere is that we don't easily recognize a lot of what they did as technology, because it was improvements of a sort that are invisible to moderns no matter how big they were at the time.

3. Also nonsense. The only reason that some places (like the Muslim world) were relatively less violent was that they'd already "progressed" further along that same path. Many areas that would later be subject to colonialism were rich and powerful empires at that time.

4. All medieval fortresses were obsoleted by gunpowder. The most expensive and formidable curtain walls ever built could be (and, IIRC, were) knocked down by cannon with ease. Having slightly thicker walls didn't help a damn - resisting cannonfire required the demolition of the fortifications and replacement with a completely new system.


Quote
Exploiting fossil fuels in industrial machinery first was made possible by:

1) Northern China's 13th century huge coal+iron industry getting destroyed and the region depopulated by the Mongols in a 100 year conquest that erased its innovations and memory until modern times
2) British and European lack of sustainable forest management eventually creating a non-industrial market demand for household coal-use in Britain (coal is extremely undesirable for household use compared to burning wood and wouldn't have been mined if European forestry had been less unsustainable)
3) Britain's high water table compared to northern China (ideas behind steam engines had been around for thousands of years in various places, but it turns out one of the few places where the extremely inefficient prototypes with very high bulk fuel transport costs are economical is when pumping water out of a coal mine itself, which is unnecessary in dry Chinese coal mines)

1. Meaningless. Mined coal was replacing charcoal everwhere in the early 1100s, not just in China. The only major exceptions were places like some of the Germanies, where careful forest management had ensured a much more reliable source of charcoal.
2. Only Britain had a near-total deforestation, and that long predated the industrial use of coal. This was because their naval and maritime traditions required huge quantities of lumber to build the ships (which also made the virgin forests of North America extremely valuable). Coal replaced wood in household heating not because of unavailability, but because it is far more energy dense and thus much more practical to transport and stockpile.
3. It is true that the need to pump mines dry was the first practical use of the steam engine. However, the notion that "ideas for steam engines were around for thousands of years" is nonsense. That claim is based on the Aeolipile, which did exist. However, the Aeolipile was useless, and it is utterly impossible to adapt it into something that can be used - trying to power anything with it would instantly overwhelm the tiny amount of torque you can get out of it. Experiments in practical use didn't crop up until the late 1600s (a handful of patents exist from a century earlier, but no evidence of any practical experiments has been found), and those were very impractical because getting to useful working pressures would often make the things explode.The mid-18th century devices, and more importantly the 19th century ones, were the first to exist because this was when materials capable of handling them began to exist.
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TamerVirus

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Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« Reply #160319 on: July 13, 2022, 05:12:36 pm »

Random nuclear PSAs have been popping up in my local area and it's got some people spooked.
I'm sure it's nothing though  :P
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