I was playing minesweeper while rebooting my router, and came across an interesting question I hadn't considered before:
What is the probability of the tiles labelled A, B, C, and D containing a mine in this corner section of the board? (not knowing the total number of remaining mines or state of the rest of the board)
ABCD
2X3X
An 'X' indicates a known mine.
My first thought was to consider the number of unique arrangements, which would be:
X X
2X3X
X X
2X3X
X
2X3X
-- and from this, using the assumption that each outcome is equally likely, conclude that the probabilities of containing a mine would be:
A: 2/3
B: 1/3
C: 1/3
D: 1/3
-- but I'm not certain if it's correct here to only consider unique combinations or if repeated permutations may matter (where the configurations with two mines would then have "double" weight), giving:
A: 4/5
B: 1/5
C: 2/5
D: 2/5
It seems to me that for this problem it would matter how the algorithm places the mines; if it's picking pseudo-random indices on the grid to place mines until it runs out (the most likely way to write minesweeper), then repeated permutations could matter, as they are at least distinct in the sequence in which the mines were placed. It seems absurd that A would be a mine 4/5 of the time empirically, however, and now I think that the underlying assumptions may have muddled the whole issue.