Don't bash too hard on advanced civ for being disaster recovery rather than managment or prevention. Most of the point of technology is prevention and reduction of disasters, and if you arn't one step ahead of the game in setting up your empire to be resilient against the disasters that are likely to come in the next few turns, you are unlikely to win.
I see steampunk as being more like the conventional magic: X+Y=Z, dwarven calculators, etc; while 'magic' will have more of the unpredictable outcomes, changing in between applications and games.
I'm not bashing Advanced Civilization for being disaster recovery rather than prevention, I'm praising it. I said it was a weakness of
DF that you have to spend all your time preventing disasters because it's extremely difficult to recover if they actually strike. Advanced Civilization, by contrast, makes disaster recovery very easy (and limits your overall expansion, so that it's actually kind of a waste not to get hit with a disaster), but basically ensures you get hit with at least one per round.
I've actually written fairly lengthy rants on the subject of randomness in games, and how they apply to the player's decisions... There's "card game" randomness and then "dice game" randomness (also, I distinguished "solved games", like chess, where nothing is random but the players, and "Candyland", where functionally everything is random), where in most card games, the randomness is in what you draw (the situation you find yourself in
before you make your decisions), but once you have a hand of cards (situation) to play, you know exactly what the results of the actions you take will be. Dice games, (such as most tabletop RPGs) on the other hand, have randomness after you make your decision - you choose your action, and then roll to see whether or not what you want to happen will actually happen.
"Solved games" demand long-term planning - the only real way to win in a game where both sides are equally strong is to have the ability to better forsee the consequences of your actions than your opponent does.
"Dice Games," on the other hand, tend to prevent long-term planning. You can try to make plans, but because you have no real way of understanding what the situation will be like in a turn or two, you can't really make long-term plans that are more than vague tactical advantages, like moving your units behind cover, or using spells that give you tactical advantages of bonuses to evasion or hitting. They probably know that some actions are more likely to work than others, and definitely know when some actions are more risky but have better payoffs. This style of game design tends to encourage players to solve whatever actions will give them the highest probability of success, and to just keep trying that same set of things over and over again until eventually they hopefully win. I think the most extreme/absurd case against this sort of playstyle can be seen in
this Order of the Stick comic, where the entire "wizard's duel" (well, actually, clerics, but that's beside the point) boiled down to two people standing next to each other, calmly taking turns tagging each other with spells repeatedly at one another until one failed their save.
"Card games" are not as focused upon long-range planning as Solved Games, because you will be stuck with more unforseeable events ahead of you, but because you can be assured of the results of what you are doing, you can be more assured of what will happen than in Dice Games. When a card is in your hand, you know exactly what its effect will be - and often, you can count the cards, and know that (if we are talking about, say, spades or bridge) your King of Spades will win a trick because the Ace of Spades has already been played. When you look at the cards in your hand or on the board in a Collectable Card Game, you can generally be assured that they will do what is printed on the cards, and look at the cards your opponent has on the board, and have an idea of what he can do, although you don't know what's in his hand (less so if you know what sort of deck he plays, so you can be assured that his deck doesn't have any counterspells or the like to stop your actions), it's just a matter of not knowing what new cards will be added to your hand next turn.
It goes without saying, but a "Candyland" game will have such utter randomness that the player has functionally no control over what happens, so there is no point in making a strategy at all. (This is really what that Order of the Stick comic parodies the cleric's duel boiling down to.)
When we are talking about what sort of "randomness" we are introducing onto the player, you have to recognize what ways the player will have to react to that randomness.
In Advanced Civilization, even if you get random disaster cards thrown at you that level cities, you can generally prepare for the next disaster, by gathering people togther at the end of your turns to be ready to rebuild some of your cities as soon as they get knocked down. The fact that you know what disasters are likely to pop up, and how to head them off and prevent too much damage from occuring when they land on your lap mean that even these "random" events are fairly mitigatable, allowing you some control over something that is theoretically out of your control.
In DF, you can do something fairly like this - you can't control the Forgotten Beast that comes rampaging into your fortress, but you can know that it's probably coming, and can know what sort of powers it has, and can contain the dangers, or prevent yourself from even being exposed to the risk by keeping your fort sealed off.
So then, this comes back to magic: Don't tell me about how "magic should be unpredictable", that's not a useful metric. Tell me what kind of unpredictability. Tell me what sort of ability the player should have to handle that unpredictability. Tell me what sort of playstyle these changes are going to force the player to adopt, because it is the way to mitigate the risks and maximize the benefits.
Because if wizards mean there's a random chance of opening HFS in the middle of your fort, with basically no means of the player stopping the damage, there is no sane response to wizards besides killing them on sight.
Even if the risks are small, but the benefits of magic give you nothing you can't get from more reliable methods, why bother with something risky and beyond your control - not having control over your game may sound "magicky" on paper, but it sure isn't fun in practice. People don't like being the pawns of chance - as we grow older, we leave Candyland behind as a kid's game for a reason.
This has nothing to do with "techonology is reliable, magic is unpredictable", because technology is hardly reliable IRL, and I think Clarke's Law should really be more applicable, anyway - it doesn't matter whether it is magic or technology, except for aesthetics; Functionally, if technology can be problematic and unpredictable, and magic can be reliable and predictable, then you're just arguing your personal aesthetics of what magic should "feel like", not what it should be able to do.
So again, I want to bring it back to the question, "What should this make the player do?" Or, "What problems does the player have that using this game feature will solve?"
Because when you get right down to it, that's what games are: A set of rules, and a problem to solve. Games reward the behaviors by letting players solve their problems by using the types of actions the games encourage, bounded by the rules. Whether magic or technology, we're talking about expanding the rules, so we have to ask what sorts of actions are we going to want to encourage the player to take?