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[Darvi]

Well, with 9 people, and 2 scum...

Day 1: 1/4 Chance of king being scum, and 3/4 chance of town king. With 1/4 chance of lynching scum. So after day 1 there's 3/16 chance of scumlynch.
Result: 3/16: 1 scum; 13/16: 2 scum. 7 People left after NK.

Now comes the difficult part to keep track of.

Day 2, 2 scum: 1/3 chance of scumking, 2/3 chance of townking, with 1/3 chance of scumlynch. So 2/9 chance of scumlynch, multiplied with the probability that there's still two scum that's 13/72 chance of 1 scum left and 91/144 of both being alive.
Day2, 1 scum: 1/6 chance of scumking, 1/6 chance of scumlynch if king is town. leaving us with 5/36 chance of scumlynch that day. With the probability on scumlynch on first day, that's 5/192 chance of townwin and 29/192 chance of scum still alive.
Result: 5/192:townwin; 91/144: scum both alive; 191/576: 1 scum alive. 5 people left after NK

Day 3, 2 scum: 1/2 chance of scumking, and townking has 1/2 chance of townlynch. 3/4 chance of scumwin, 1/4 chance of 1 scum left. With the chance that both scum are still alive that's 91/576 chance of 1 scum left and 91/192 chance of scumwin.
Day 3, 1 scum: 3/4 chance of townking, 1/4 chance of scumlynch if town is king. 3/16 townwin, 13/16 of scum still being alive. With prob(1 scum left), that's 191/2592  chance of townwin, and 2483/9216 chance of scum being alive.
Result: 191/3072: townwin; 91/192:scumwin; 1313/3072: 1 scum alive and game still running. 3 people left after NK.

Day 4: 1/2 chance of townking and then 1/2 chance of scumlynch. 1/4 chance of townwin, 3/4 chance of scumwin.
Result: 1313/12288: townwin; 1313/4096: scumwin.

Total result:799/4096: townwin; 9763/12288: scumwin.


... somewhere  I made a mistake...

Edit: I think I found it. *keeps editing*

edit2: aaand still missing 1/96 somewhere... -_-

[Pandarsenic]

The problem is the random stats can't account for people's actions. Obviously.

[SaintDraze]

You know what? the only real way of avoiding something like Km 4 is to do away with the king maker and go with Random.Org...
that or the king maker action is giving to a random player each night... which would work if scum could be kingmaker...

[Leafsnail]

Well, with my excessively large probability tree, I put the chance of scum winning at 0.7224.  This is taking modelling assumptions based on not lynching the KM except at lylo (where scum counterclaim).

I think this is about normal for a mafia setup... Vengeful, for instance, has a 0.6 chance of scum winning with random actions, iirc.

[Darvi]

With KM-lynch there is .79 probability of scumwin. But then again my calculations are bogus.

[SaintDraze]

Wait... so what is a bastard game of mafia?

You have to try to kill just one guy? and eveyone has a shit pile of roles?

[Darvi]

Rule 1 of bastard mafia: The GM lies.
Rule 2: The rules are not what they seem to be.
Rule 3: you are screwed.
Rule 4: Never talk about rules 1-3

And I think what you were talking about was Kill Webadict Now. Which was a bastard mod on account of the target changing every day and other stuff.

[SaintDraze]

Oh I get it now...


So the Mod is actively trying to !#$!#@ everything up...

That sounds so....
Fun?
Dwarf fortress kind of fun =D

[Darvi]

Kinda, yeah.

[webadict]

I think having a game named after me makes me King of the Mafia.

[Pandarsenic]

Well, the example of Kill Webadict Now as a Bastard Mod is that everyone was informed at the start that Webadict was the scum and that they should kill him immediately.

I was telling the truth.

However:

If he's lynched, the first person to unvote him gained his role and he flipped their role; that player then becomes The Webadict, who has the same role.

The Webadict also had a large number of one-shot abilities that could be used in addition to a nightkill. And there was a Jester. And a Survivor I think.

[Darvi]

One of the JoaT's was a survivor.

[Leafsnail]

And you set it up so that everyone could actually win, but so that it was staggeringly unlikely.

[Darvi]

Either way, it's a very interesting read. Somebody should do that again sometime.

[Pandarsenic]

Oh, yeah, I was really hoping for that. It was possible but very unlikely that everyone in the game could become a Webadict in succession, the Jester could be lynched, the Webadict/Survivor/Jester could kill nobody, and every player could (in turn) end up integrated into the cult; on the last day, the Townie would vote the Webadict, then unvote, then revote and lynch him with the Survivor. With that every player in the game would've won.

It would, however, require every player to work together and thus was borderline impossible.