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[Duuvian]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed before. I did a search for topics in GD with space in the name. I found these two interesting topics:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=55624.msg1199551#msg1199551
http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=53836.msg1154772#msg1154772

After reading this critical bit of evil that implies a "Space Force" was being seriously considered for the future, I was curious what people's thoughts regarding allowing planetary governments to weaponize space were.

My opinion that it is absolutely needless for a "Space Force" to be developed at this time. I think the correct way to go in this instance would be allow private corporations and individuals take the first steps in space. This obviously will be hampered by the non-existant ways to currently make profit in space short of limited tourism.

However, if the tourism market expands or something valuable in space is discovered, I feel there is no need for a "Space Navy" until acts of piracy begin to occur. I'd imagine private companies would desire to safeguard their investments by agreeing to a space-wide non-aggression pact, thus allowing for a peace in space. The piracy, when it occurs, eventually would likely be an arm of a government out to make trouble in my opinion (especially in wartime similar to piracy but with the goal of terrorizing space go-ers [think u-boats but in space], imposing a space blockade, and demonstrating their superiority in the area of space instead of seizing goods or ships [although I don't see why that wouldn't happen in addition]), or a specialized ship built by a criminal organization even farther down the road for the more classic pirate theme. It would be a long time in the making I feel, especially since it would likely have to land on earth at some point, barring a space station that may or may not be reachable with weapons by that point. Anyways though, a space military, especially when there is not much need to defend space from other countries, is kind of silly. All it would allow is a space arms race and also allow governments to influence the baby steps of whatever the space economy turns out to be.

However, there is the other side of the coin, where if you don't even have a token force present in space, how long would the piracy be a problem before the first space frigate or whatever is launched?

Would a treaty banning space military be a good idea? Or will common sense be enough to keep politicians from wanting to control humanity's access to the solar system?

[Schilcote]

1: Would a treaty banning space military be a good idea?
2: Or will common sense be enough to keep politicians from wanting to control humanity's access to the solar system?

1. Already is one.
2. You  have never heard anything about politics if you think that's a remote possibility. Politicians want power. That's the point of being a politician. A good number of them want absolute power, and don't intend to use it for good.

[Duuvian]

1: Would a treaty banning space military be a good idea?
2: Or will common sense be enough to keep politicians from wanting to control humanity's access to the solar system?

1. Already is one.
2. You  have never heard anything about politics if you think that's a remote possibility. Politicians want power. That's the point of being a politician. A good number of them want absolute power, and don't intend to use it for good.

I didn't know there was a treaty. Can you provide a link?

Also, 2. was somewhat of a rhetorical question. I was trying to imply that yes, a treaty would probably be a good idea to keep that aspect of people in check.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

The UN already seems like they wish to go and keep everyone out of space till we kill each other. All their laws in regards to space seem designed to keep everything but government-funded excursions that have no permanant effect grounded. I would be worried if they had literaly no power at all.

So, yes, we should allow personal and corporate space exploration. One needs to consider that effective ship to ship space combat is much farther away than effective space travel. To be a pirate, you would have to capture ships. Causing even some harm to the craft would leave it destroyed and all onbord dead. Sure, you could go through the wrecks and pick out anything of value, but modern pirates have failed to be wiped out because they leave the crew alive more often then they do not. If space pirates just killed everyone, they would quickly face individuals who fully know they are in a life or death situation. There would be no options of making the target surrender or forcibly taking over the craft. Plane hijackings saw a rapid decrease in success since September 11th, because people involved knew the only outcomes were action or death. Same concept with space pirates. Hell, modern pirates would get the same treatment, were it not for knowing they can get more money by ransoming the ship in question and leaving the crew alive.

[sneakey pete]

The whole "space pirates" thing might not really be possible (you know, too many science fiction books and you start beleiving things?)

Think about it, any intercept between ships would be know way before it occours, the ship that's being "pirated" would have an oppertunity to change course (and therefore mean that the "pirates" probably can't even get to them due to orbital dynamics), aswell as that any of these would actually ost a high amount of thrust which we really don't have an effective way to produce right now (ion engines are too slow, chemical rockets to fuel use-y). Boarding itself would be difficult too. Not to mention that most people are going to have some kind of "base" that practically everyone would know about, so while they're on their 1 week intercept course, a government or other party could just threaten to blow the shit out of their base. Can't see it being likely in space.

[Aqizzar]

Ah, the good old PNAC, always there for a laugh.  It's a crime to the world of politico-nerd humor that they shut their doors in shame.

I have no doubt about there eventually being weaponry in space; if you have separate groups moving into new territory, eventually somebody is going to come to blows.  I hope and pray that it will be governments and not private companies.  The last thing space needs is the East India Company wars played out in a vacuum.  It will be governments of course, because until the technology and infrastructure to support trans-orbital travel is there, it's mindbogglingly expensive to do anything outside of the satellite belt.

The idea that industry in space will naturally spawn space piracy is just ludicrous for at least the first few conceivable centuries of developed space travel.  We've had air travel for a century, and the volume and worth thereof increases exponentially all the time.  We don't have air-piracy do we?  (More's the pity, but the point stands.)  I's just not feasible to hijack aircraft, because of all the physical dangers involved, but more importantly because communication is such that you'd be instantly identified and responded to.  Space would pose much the same situation.

Stuff being stolen in port however, would probably happen just as often as on Earth, which is often in the more piratey parts of the world.  Anyway, space-piracy is a pipe dream of the highest order, and space warfare al a Moonraker is probably just as doubtful.  Oh well.

[Maggarg - Eater of chicke]

Space piracy can only be conducted in 18th century sailing ships with huge engines stuck to them.

[Sir Pseudonymous]

The problem is that there's no immediate practical value to space exploration, aside from "FUCK YEAH SPACE TRAVEL!". Any benefits are too long term for any corporation to front the cost of dangerous, extremely expensive missions.

Hell, even if the earth were turned into an irradiated ball of glass, it'd still be more hospitable to human life than any other planet (which does, I suppose, give a nice analogue to just how fucking hostile space is), even were these problems to be adequately solved (with, say, hydroponics and bio-domes), it's not possible to ship enough people off to these hellish boxes to solve population problems (without significant population control measures in place to being the reproduction rate down to below what can be shipped offworld), to ignore the ethical (read: PR) problems of forcing many millions of people to undergo a dangerous voyage to live in a cramped, dubiously safe box for the rest of their lives for the moment. Not to mention that if you had the ability to feed them all there, you could do the same here, but cheaper.

There's also no resource that could be harvested in a manner that's not ludicrously more expensive and infeasible than mining it on earth in space.


So, there's essentially no chance of a corporation successfully taking up proper space exploration. The only people who'd do anything meaningful are those in it for the "FUCK YEAH SPACE TRAVEL!" aspect, which pretty much just means NASA and eccentric billionaires. All of whom should be given backing, because otherwise China takes over the moon and we get this.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I do not agree. Every excursion into space brings new discoveries and new technologies. We, as a species, use our intellect to help adapt to any new situation. You yourself made clear just how hostile space is, so it shall provoke new adaption. We cannot get to the point of attaining material benefits from space exploration unless we start at some point, and this point needs to be now. Abandoning our pursuit of the stars ensures that we will all die, sooner rather than later.

As for resources, you cannot forget that any resource in space will be untouched. We have chipped away at what Earth has to offer for centuries, and now there is much less left, despite knowing how to obtain most resources en mass now. What we find in space will have never been harvested by anyone. The risks are great, that I grant you, but the eventual returns are far larger.

[Muz]

I don't see any reason for private companies to venture into space. Experiments? Pay NASA to do them. I can't see space tourism taking off, seriously. I mean, I'd rather pay a hundred thousand to Antartica and see penguins than to pay a few millions to go to Mars and see Martians. Same goes for looking for resources. There just aren't that many modern resources that aren't cheaper to get on earth. Oil would be cheaper to find in Africa in the next century than finding them on Mars. And even then, transportation price would be ridiculous.. and massive oil space tankers would be rather nasty.

So, I'd kinda tick out private corporations. But if some technological breakthrough manages to make space travel cheap, then it'd be a whole different situation. Space elevator isn't all too unlikely. My vote's on there being space navies. Simply because countries want to colonize space. Being the politician who got USA to claim half of Mars and Phobos goes nice on your resume and history books. Space navies are going to be extremely expensive, but if you find some useful resources out in space, it's not impossible.

You could look to history as a guide, but there's some differences. For one thing, you can't live indefinitely in some foreign planet on coconuts, and there's nobody from space bringing you valuable resources. It's going to be very difficult to find a foreign planet even worth colonizing... that's probably why we're sending so many robots to collect frigging rocks.

I wouldn't brush away space pirates if the thing takes off, though. It's certainly not as easy as in sci-fi stuff, but possible. Piracy, like any other theft, works when it's possible and lucrative. If you have a space vessel with lots of powerful weapons against a civilian vessel with no defenses, it could well happen. You don't even have to board the ship.. anyone would be terrified of being shot out in space and away from repairs.

Air piracy is just not easy. Plane cargo is very poor, compared to the millions you can get from hijacking a ship. Airplanes are also very fast with very short trips, and are always in safe territory. It's just not feasible to chase most planes, and the fuel costs more than anything you could steal. Space freighters would probably have a lot more bounty and much more time between departure and arrival. They'd still move at near light velocities, so it's going to be difficult to follow one, much less capture them.

but more importantly because communication is such that you'd be instantly identified and responded to

This alone could be a huge contributor to space piracy. Communication is going to be absurdly difficult in space. Doppler effect makes communication while travelling tough. You'll be light-hours to light-months away from other people, reception will be extremely poor. Worst of all, it's going to be tough for pirates to latch on to freighters, but even tougher for enforcement ships to latch on to pirates.

[Sir Pseudonymous]

I said corporations won't touch it, or rather won't manage to do so successfully (either they don't do so to start with, or their shareholders throw a fit after a few years of no profits and they go under), on account of there being no immediate benefit. On the other hand, I stand firmly behind excessive funding for the sake of "FUCK YEAH SPACE TRAVEL!". I'm just practical enough to say it won't give us any benefits aside from that, for decades at the very least.

[Il Palazzo]

I wouldn't brush away space pirates if the thing takes off, though. It's certainly not as easy as in sci-fi stuff, but possible. Piracy, like any other theft, works when it's possible and lucrative. If you have a space vessel with lots of powerful weapons against a civilian vessel with no defenses, it could well happen. You don't even have to board the ship.. anyone would be terrified of being shot out in space and away from repairs.

That's silly. Intercepting anything traveling through deep space is ridiculously hardimpossible without a huge sci-fi handwaving(like super-duper engines), or years of planning. And can you imagine some wannabe pirates investing TRILLIONS in their own space ship, their own resupply base, and armament, just so that they could waste months of their time and all their fuel chasing some freighter carrying... what? Minerals? Passengers? Would they try some ransoming? How much could they gain from capturing that when compared to what they invested? And since there is no stealth in space, they would get promptly detected and nuked to smitherness.
Besides, if you want to capture a vessel, why not go for the budget option and just hijack the thing?

Anyway, my point is, if we disregard all the sci-fi bits of space travel, and consider the present state of technology, there's no need for space police, as there can be no space piracy. All the eventual crime, like corporations blowing each other off the orbit or terrorism cases, can be prosecuted on Earth.

[Azzuro]

To contribute to the discussion on space piracy, piracy only occurs when you are sure that you can obtain what you want (i.e. cargo) without it being destroyed, when you are sure that there is little chance of the relevant authorities catching you, and when you are sure the loot can be safely sold without it being traced back to you.

This is the reason why piracy only occurs on the high seas, because ships can be hours away from help, and captains generally aren't all that willing to sink their own ships, and because said goods can be sold at almost every port without suspicion.(Incidentally, the reason why so many pirates ransom their hostage ship is because there isn't a market for the contents of a supertanker)

Piracy in the air could be possible if we still used airships, but as it is now, it would be nothing short of a miracle if one managed to disable a plane without it falling out of the air, and because (as Aqizzar said) planes are almost constantly in communication with air traffic. Also, planes are generally much faster than any ship, and therefore much closer to help if they needed it.

To recap on space piracy, it faces the same sort of problems that air piracy does, namely the inherent danger in destroying your loot. In my opinion, space piracy will likely be similar to air "piracy" nowadays, which is some form of hijacking/suicide bombings.

The implications of such forms of piracy would be staggering. Some form of space 9/11 perhaps?

[Sir Pseudonymous]

To contribute to the discussion on space piracy, piracy only occurs when you are sure that you can obtain what you want (i.e. cargo) without it being destroyed, when you are sure that there is little chance of the relevant authorities catching you, and when you are sure the loot can be safely sold without it being traced back to you.

Modern pirates ransom the crew (after beating and raping them, of course), and the ship. A bunch of borderline retarded thugs with AK-47s can't do shit with a freighter, and sure as hell couldn't move the cargo without being caught in the act.

[Soadreqm]

I said corporations won't touch it, or rather won't manage to do so successfully (either they don't do so to start with, or their shareholders throw a fit after a few years of no profits and they go under), on account of there being no immediate benefit. On the other hand, I stand firmly behind excessive funding for the sake of "FUCK YEAH SPACE TRAVEL!". I'm just practical enough to say it won't give us any benefits aside from that, for decades at the very least.

I agree. There's not much in space, but it's one of the only directions we can go right now. There's nothing up there but minerals, and Earth will have to be strip mined quite thoroughly before it's cost-effective to blow billions of dollars on shooting a mining craft up Earth's gravity well.

Well, if Moon turned out to have enough water to support permanent habitation without constant supply shipments from home, it might be worth to mine stuff there. It's small and close enough that it's easy to drop things on Earth.

Other than that, there's solar energy. From what I've heard, satellite-swarm Dyson spheres are technologically feasible, and once we've completely paved over the oceans and exhausted what energy geothermal boreholes can offer, it might even be worth considering.

And if we actually advance up the tech tree to interstellar travel, with near-lightspeed spaceships, it'll probably change warfare in the same way ICBMs have, compared to swords. If you can travel between stars, blowing up planets isn't far behind.