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[USEC_OFFICER]

So you think I'm scum for trying to figure out who's scum? So what if me and toaster both voted for Vector? After all, you, Vector and Ottofar are all voting for me, are you not? Does that mean that you all are scum?

Was this directed at me? It was inserted into a quote of mine so I'll assume it was - no, I'm not voting for you. I'm voting for Toaster. Also there's only 2 scum.

Anyway yeah, I'll back an extend. Have you got anything you'd like to add to the recent discussion, Vector? You're being awfully quiet so close to what could be the end of the game.

It was in a quote that I hadn't seen yet. And of course I know your voting for toaster.

(What makes you think that I had more than three scums in my post? You know what I mean.)

[Vector]

I don't have much to say, to be honest.  First I was waiting for USEC_OFFICER's reply, and then I was thinking about it and all the probabilistic messes I haven't felt like computing through.


To address a few salient points, however:

I'm a behavioralist, and the evidence is telling me that USEC_OFFICER is scum.  I don't take "I am a passive, defeatist, cynical, defensive person" as an excuse anymore, since I once gave exactly the same argument to Webadict in a scum game.  ... My first scum game, to be precise, which was also my first game.  This is the first reason why I'm not giving him any slack.  The other reason is that "hmm, who's the godfather" slip.

As far as the "who is the other scum" question, I'm not sure--I usually do things on a case by case basis.  I honestly don't understand the need for probabilities and whatnot, because all this game really requires is "impossible," "possible," or "absolute,"  and a little linear ordering in-between.  The recent posts haven't really seemed pointful, since they're mostly a wave of number-crunching that obscures the behavioral facts.  As such, my eyes kind of glazed over and I didn't respond.

In short, I'm going to need to reread the thread yet again to find USEC's partner.

[USEC_OFFICER]

I don't take "I am a passive, defeatist, cynical, defensive person" as an excuse anymore

All I can do is direct you to prior games (... I'm especially proud of my work in Rysith's Semi-Bastard Mod and Beginner's Mafia 4) and allow you to make your own assessment of my playstyle.

So its okay if you have played a lot of games?

[Vector]

I don't take "I am a passive, defeatist, cynical, defensive person" as an excuse anymore

All I can do is direct you to prior games (... I'm especially proud of my work in Rysith's Semi-Bastard Mod and Beginner's Mafia 4) and allow you to make your own assessment of my playstyle.

So its okay if you have played a lot of games?

Don't be a fool, USEC.  We both know that you can see more clearly than this.

There is a significant difference between "I am a scummy person, please don't lynch me--and also ignore all those other accusations you levied against me and I ignored" and "That's not my scum playstyle, but don't take my word for it.  Look yourself."

You see, I am not playing "pin the nightkill on the donkey."  That game is pointless.  We all know it.  All I can do in my defense, when people are voting me in hopes that they've thrown the darts at the right donkey, is say "I am not donkey-shaped.  Have some photographs from a couple of years ago.  I know I may have morphed into a donkey or a horse or something like that, so you can't take my word for it--but have some pics.  That's me in Bermuda."

What you are doing, my dear sir, is saying "I know I look like a wolf but that's because I have this unfortunate genetic disease that makes me kind of... wolfy!  I'm really a sheep!  Really really!  And every picture you'll ever find of me is pretty undistinguishable from a wolf, but just take my word and wolfy smell for it, hokay?"

[Rube]

The game essentially boils down to guessing. Educating guessing, but still, an educated guess is in part random. Probability exists to find out how likely a random outcome is. Dismissing probability out of hand because you don't understand it handicaps you, heavily.

Behaviourlism has nothing to do with it. This is a forum game. I could go trawl through other games on this and other forums and wholesale copy-paste townies posts to use as my own. Your behaviourlism would have nothing to go on because scum could literally be using the words and inflections of geniune townie posts. It's a nice idea that you can play Sherlock and psychologically profile everyone based on how often they correctly punctualise, but it doesn't work when people can take hours to carefully edit their every post. It would only work if we were all sat around a table.

Town wins by observing who was lynched, who was night killed, who buddied with who, and who attacked who. Then we look at who would benefit most as scum from all those events, and make a guess. It's all probability.

I'm just giving some advice, I don't expect to change your mind. For better or worse D3 draws to an end. I would've liked to get the odds a little higher in our favor, but we'll see where the dice land. Maybe we'll get lucky.

[Lonewolf I]

Votecount:
USEC_OFFICER - {3} Ottofar, Vector, Toaster
Ottofar - {0}
Vector - {0}
Toaster - {1} Rube
Rube - {0}

Not Voting:
USEC_OFFICER

Day ends on in 90 minutes at 8:00pm CST

One shorten request heard.  Two more required to shorten.
Two extension requests heard.  One more required to extend.

Note: One can Oppose Extension or Oppose Shorten to negate a vote for such.

[Vector]

Dismissing probability out of hand because you don't understand it handicaps you, heavily.

I am a student of mathematics.  I understand statistics.

I also know the people who play game theory and mathematics here, and they aren't the winners.  They're the ones who can't see clearly enough to read behavior.

Town wins by observing who was lynched, who was night killed, who buddied with who, and who attacked who. Then we look at who would benefit most as scum from all those events, and make a guess. It's all probability.

It works better when you feel than when you think.  It's about listening to the words, not about your dry meanderings.  Probability is nothing.  Townies buddy.  Scum go on roaring angry rampages.  Both OMGUS, drop scumtells, and so on.  It's about provoking reactions, attacking, curb-stomping when you have to.  See what you can see, and so on.

It's a nice idea that you can play Sherlock and psychologically profile everyone based on how often they correctly punctualise, but it doesn't work when people can take hours to carefully edit their every post. It would only work if we were all sat around a table.

They can, but will they?  How about the people who carefully punctualize before the game, and then during it start using run-on sentences?  What about the people with loads of posts who end up hardly posting in the game itself, or about those who suddenly start mis-punctuating when you attack them?  How about the shy folks who suddenly turn into lions?

It's all about data, my friend.  I get it my way.  You get it yours.

[USEC_OFFICER]

I don't take "I am a passive, defeatist, cynical, defensive person" as an excuse anymore

All I can do is direct you to prior games (... I'm especially proud of my work in Rysith's Semi-Bastard Mod and Beginner's Mafia 4) and allow you to make your own assessment of my playstyle.

So its okay if you have played a lot of games?

Don't be a fool, USEC.  We both know that you can see more clearly than this.

There is a significant difference between "I am a scummy person, please don't lynch me--and also ignore all those other accusations you levied against me and I ignored" and "That's not my scum playstyle, but don't take my word for it.  Look yourself."

You see, I am not playing "pin the nightkill on the donkey."  That game is pointless.  We all know it.  All I can do in my defense, when people are voting me in hopes that they've thrown the darts at the right donkey, is say "I am not donkey-shaped.  Have some photographs from a couple of years ago.  I know I may have morphed into a donkey or a horse or something like that, so you can't take my word for it--but have some pics.  That's me in Bermuda."

What you are doing, my dear sir, is saying "I know I look like a wolf but that's because I have this unfortunate genetic disease that makes me kind of... wolfy!  I'm really a sheep!  Really really!  And every picture you'll ever find of me is pretty undistinguishable from a wolf, but just take my word and wolfy smell for it, hokay?"

So I can use it as a defence if I play a lot of games? Vector, might I ask you how long it has been since you played mafia, besides this one?

[Vector]

Oh, my god.

You seem to not actually understand this concept.  I'm not going to explain it again, because apparently my analogies flew over your head--but if you reread what I said and consider it, it should make sense.

To give it a final whirl:

I was accused of having a bad case of shoot-yourself-in-the-foot-as-scum-itis.  I said that I did not previously have such a case, and gave some evidence in case anyone cared.

You were accused of being scummy.  You said "that is what I do, yes.  Happy WIFOM "



Also, it's been something like 3 or 4 months.

[USEC_OFFICER]

So you did not look at this hyperlink at all, to see how I played in my only game so far?

[Vector]

So you did not look at this hyperlink at all, to see how I played in my only game so far?

Funny.  You look much more relaxed and active over there, as opposed to your cringing self in this game.

Thanks for the meta-evidence.  It helps my case.

[USEC_OFFICER]

So you did not look at this hyperlink at all, to see how I played in my only game so far?

Funny.  You look much more relaxed and active over there, as opposed to your cringing self in this game.

Thanks for the meta-evidence.  It helps my case.

Probably because this is day three (Which I didn't get too.) And really? You don't think I'm cringing? Mind you, my heart is racing now, which is probably why I'm less relaxed and more cringing. (Which you won't believe/think it makes me scum.)

FAKEEDIT: Rereading it, I believe I seem more relaxed as I had developed a devil-may-care attitude (Notice the fact that I call a shorten on me.) Now I feel that I'm going to make everybody lose, which is probably affecting me. (A lot.)

[Vector]

Overreactions to something as simple as this do tend to look rather scummy, yes.

By the way, I only compared D1 in both cases.  I didn't think it'd be fair, otherwise.

[USEC_OFFICER]

Overreactions to something as simple as this do tend to look rather scummy, yes.

By the way, I only compared D1 in both cases.  I didn't think it'd be fair, otherwise.

Well then what I say still stands. I felt that I dodged a bullet, and hid. Dying twice on day one would suck.

As for overractions: It's what I do.

[Vector]

Well then what I say still stands. I felt that I dodged a bullet, and hid. Dying twice on day one would suck.

As for overractions: It's what I do.

If you are town, I will eat you alive when this game is over.  SERIOUSLY, man.