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[Rube]

The D3 timeline.

1. Toaster and USEC both vote for Vector here. For the same reason, the night kills.

2. Toaster attempts to drag me into the lynch against Vector here. A 3rd vote would ensure Vector gets lynched.

3. Ottofar roleclaims cop, implicating USEC and Toaster as scum. They're both suddenly and mysteriously unsure about their votes, and backtrack here and here.

That seems mighty suspicious...

[Toaster]

I forgot to unvote last post.


Ottofar:  You missed a question- see below.  (changed emphasis)

Ottofar:  That makes things interesting.  Quick questions:  Which order did you scan them?  Why did you scan them?  There's a 50% chance of a godfather this game- do you think one of them is one?  If so, which one?

I'm pretty sure that I've got this figured out, but I want that answer first.

[Rube]

I forgot to unvote last post.


Ottofar:  You missed a question- see below.  (changed emphasis)

Ottofar:  That makes things interesting.  Quick questions:  Which order did you scan them?  Why did you scan them?  There's a 50% chance of a godfather this game- do you think one of them is one?  If so, which one?

I'm pretty sure that I've got this figured out, but I want that answer first.

Nice try, trying to reinforce the idea that there's a 50% chance one of Ottofar's inspects was a godfather.

Ottofar had to have picked a scum to inspect to begin with. If he was picking targets at random he had a ~30% chance to inspect scum. I'm assuming Ottofar is a little more accurate than a RNG, so I'll give him a 60% chance that at least on of his targets was scum. I'm feeling generous.

He had a 50% chance to pick the scum that wasn't godfather (assuming there was only one godfather). That 60% becomes 30%.

There was a further 50% chance that no godfather was ever in this game. That 30% becomes 15%.

It's a 15% chance Ottofar inspected a godfather. Or Ottofar is lying. Or USEC and Toaster are scum. Take your pick.

[Ottofar]

Oh, sorry.

I'd guess, if I've hit godfather it is Rube, who has somewhat improved his act on d3, though.

[Toaster]

Thanks, Ottofar.

Also - I'm not very good at math, I think it's actually ~23% chance Magwebster is scum. That's higher than I would've assumed, we really need that extension...

You should have dropped math here, Rube, because yours doesn't fly.

You're pulling in irrelevant details and leaving out important ones to try to prove yourself town with statistics.  It doesn't matter who he could have scanned- it matters who he did scan.  I know I'm town.   If Ottofar's a cop, he's town.  That leaves three scum possibilities.  Since we can only have one GF, that would guarantee USEC as scum.  Rube, your best defense against the possibility of you being scum is "it's unlikely."  The way I see it, 50% is pretty good odds.

Now, it comes down to "Is Ottofar telling the truth?"  I believe his claim now, which as I said, means USEC_Officer is scum, and I'm almost positive Rube is his scum buddy.

[Rube]

Thanks, Ottofar.

Also - I'm not very good at math, I think it's actually ~23% chance Magwebster is scum. That's higher than I would've assumed, we really need that extension...

You should have dropped math here, Rube, because yours doesn't fly.

You're pulling in irrelevant details and leaving out important ones to try to prove yourself town with statistics.  It doesn't matter who he could have scanned- it matters who he did scan.  I know I'm town.   If Ottofar's a cop, he's town.  That leaves three scum possibilities.  Since we can only have one GF, that would guarantee USEC as scum.  Rube, your best defense against the possibility of you being scum is "it's unlikely."  The way I see it, 50% is pretty good odds.

Now, it comes down to "Is Ottofar telling the truth?"  I believe his claim now, which as I said, means USEC_Officer is scum, and I'm almost positive Rube is his scum buddy.

It's not 50%. I'm not sure I can make basic statistics like those any simpler without introducing hand puppets. Although thank you for obsfucating simple statistics in front of everyone like that. Not extremely scummy at all (hint - actually it is).

That's why I like using math, by the way. I'm not asking anyone to trust what I'm saying. They can work it out for themselves.

I'm still not 100% sure Ottofar isn't lying however. You seem too quick to bus USEC, and you're acting uncharacteristically scummy. It would be easy for you to say Ottofar was lying if you and USEC were scumbuddies, and yet you're dismissing the idea that he's lying out of hand... I think you might have something planned... In either case, now I'm sure you're scum Toaster.

[Lonewolf I]

Votecount:
USEC_OFFICER - {3} Ottofar, Vector, Toaster
Ottofar - {0}
Vector - {0}
Toaster - {1} Rube
Rube - {0}

Not Voting:
USEC_OFFICER

Day ends on in 26 hours at 8:00pm CST

[webadict]

Yo, USEC, whichever team you're on, you need to defend yourself.

[Lonewolf I]

Webadict has been promoted from Replacement Queue Placeholder to Honorary Town IC.

[Toaster]

Again, if your best defense is math, you're hiding that you don't actually have a real case.  Math is nice and logical, but it doesn't apply here.

[Ottofar]

How about we shorten the day, if you're sure of your votes.

[Rube]

Again, if your best defense is math, you're hiding that you don't actually have a real case.  Math is nice and logical, but it doesn't apply here.

Please, you've already thoroughly proven you're scum. The only question now is whether USEC or Ottofar is your scumbuddy.

There's this that points to Toaster being scumbuddies with USEC. Toaster could be bussing USEC, and setting the scene to accuse somebody else of having been USEC's scumbuddy in D4.

However there is growing evidence that Ottofar might be Toaster's scumbuddy. Toaster acts as though he's confirmed something from Ottofar's post here, which apparently is enough for him to arbitrarily decide Ottofar is a cop. If Ottofar was town it would be easy for Toaster to claim Ottofar was lying, get him lynched and win the game.

Perhaps Ottofar claimed cop to implicate both Toaster and USEC as scum, knowing that USEC would get lynched first (thus winning the game for scum). He said as much here. Now he's trying to get the day shortened while the majority of the votes rest on USEC.

I don't know which is correct. I know that Toaster is scum in either one though.

[USEC_OFFICER]

Sorry everybody. Was sick yesterday with a terrible headache. Reading everything now.

[USEC_OFFICER]

Answering questions:

TEXT

Wow. That was a lot of text. By (Generalized) defence consists of this:

1. I am a passive, defensive, cynical, defeatist person. That's who I am. That's how I play. That's how I played for 100% of my posts.

2. I don't like to post to things that other people have already pointed out/said. This is also my second game. If I'm not posting that much. ie. day two, other people have already said what I wanted to say/I have very little idea on how to scumhunt/I don't like posting for the sake of posting. If I don't see the point of posting something, I won't post. This can happen a lot. (Like day two.)

3. I post when I think, hard. Like when Ottofar said he was cop. It's a kneejerk reaction.

I realize that this will not satisfy you, but it's who I am. It's my second game, so I can't really point out any of my other games, like you did.

Ottofor is scum, pretending to be cop; This begs the question, why? Roleclaiming cop will attract a lot of attention. Ottofor got 2 votes at the end of D2, and may have thought roleclaiming cop would divert that attention. Then we look at who he claims he checked - me and Vector. Why pick two people who are still alive in the game if he was lying? It'd be easier and safer to pick someone who was lynched or night killed, who we all know are townies.

Of course he could've been planning on us thinking that, cue WIFOM.

I'd like to hear his answers to all our questions. Especially which order he cop-checked me and Vector.

My idea was that this placed the least scummy looking person (Toaster) with the most (Me.) It also looks like to me that Rube and Vector would be more likely to believe him. And so, you'll vote for me.

@USEC, this, and much more,  is evidence that you are scummier than Toaster.

Can't you spend the three seconds to come up with more reasons why I am scum? Because it sounds like you have a lot of them. Tell me more.

The D3 timeline.

1. Toaster and USEC both vote for Vector here. For the same reason, the night kills.

So you think I'm scum for trying to figure out who's scum? So what if me and toaster both voted for Vector? After all, you, Vector and Ottofar are all voting for me, are you not? Does that mean that you all are scum?

3. Ottofar roleclaims cop, implicating USEC and Toaster as scum. They're both suddenly and mysteriously unsure about their votes, and backtrack here and here.

So your opinions didn't change when Ottofar said he was town? I got new information, and had to reassess my vote. It can take me a while to think everything out.

Now, my logic states that if I decide that Ottofar is not scum, I vote for Toaster.

Here's the chances that people are scum, based on the three possiblities, that Ottofar's claim provides:

• Ottofar is telling the truth, no godfather: USEC_OFFICER: 100, Rube: 0, Vector: 0, Toaster: 100, Ottofar: 0
• Ottofar is telling the truth, godfather: USEC_OFFICER are Toaster paired with: 100, Rube and Vector are paired with: 100, Ottofar: 0
• Ottofar is lying: USEC_OFFICER: 25, Rube: 25, Vector: 25, Toaster: 25, Ottofar: 100

Use it yourselves.

Anyway, since I know whether I am scum or not, I can eliminate any instances where I am/could be scum. Now, the revised list, with USEC_OFFICER as 100% town:

• Ottofar is telling the truth, no godfather: Rube: 0, Vector: 0, Toaster: 100, Ottofar: 0
• Ottofar is telling the truth, godfather: Toaster: 100, Rube and Vector are paired with: 100, Ottofar: 0
• Ottofar is lying: Rube: 33, Vector: 33, Toaster: 33, Ottofar: 100

Now, as you can see, the first possiblity is impossible (from my Point of View). After I eliminate it, I see that if Ottofar is telling the truth, someone must be scum, with Toaster having a 100% chance of being scum. However, if I decide Ottofar is lying, (And therefore scum), I vote for him.

The only problem that I am having is that toaster is a good player, both town and scum, (Which sucks, as this is my second game.) and that Ottofar so far as posted as he usually does. (At least, in all the mafia games which I've read that he's been in.)

I'll call extend, to give me more time to think.

[Rube]

So you think I'm scum for trying to figure out who's scum? So what if me and toaster both voted for Vector? After all, you, Vector and Ottofar are all voting for me, are you not? Does that mean that you all are scum?

Was this directed at me? It was inserted into a quote of mine so I'll assume it was - no, I'm not voting for you. I'm voting for Toaster. Also there's only 2 scum.

Anyway yeah, I'll back an extend. Have you got anything you'd like to add to the recent discussion, Vector? You're being awfully quiet so close to what could be the end of the game.