It is a horribly regressive set of moves being called progressive by, frankly, liars.
There are two progressive elements;
- Capital gains tax increase for those in the highest tax band.
- Income tax personal allowance increase by £1000, worth £170 per year in taxes saved.
The first is actually a sensible revenue stream. Thing is, the Lib Dems had pushed for a higher rate than this. Compare the new 28% to the
top band income tax of 50% on earnings over $150,000. [EDIT: The increase will apply to those on the higher rate of 40%, incomes over £37,401. I don't disagree with this part, but it's that the increased capital gains are still only taxed at <2/3 of income that doesn't make sense.] Add in the £10,100 exemption before the capital gains kick in and the tax here is pretty soft for individuals who see most of their income through capital gains. So while this is largely progressive, it's still fairly minimal and I don't see it offsetting the other changes.
The personal income tax allowance is also nice, and if their 880,000 figure is true (the number of people who will stop having to pay tax) then a solid progressive step. However, it leaves a few holes.
1) This is a
personal allowance. Single income households will be hurt in comparison with those on two incomes.
2) Income tax already only covers 62% of the population. The rest won't benefit at all from this, being on the lowest incomes and being hit hardest by the decreased benefits and increased VAT.
That VAT increase really hurts when combined with that above fact. VAT is hugely regressive.
The takeaway numbers for VAT;
The richest 10% pay one in every 25 pounds of their income in VAT; the poorest 10% pay one in every seven pounds as VAT
And that is before the increase, which will only push the numbers up. Those who are hurt most are those who gain least (if anything) from the income tax allowance.
And again, the income tax allowance is a watered down version of a Lib Dem goal to push the allowance to £10,000.
The benefits cuts are even worse than they look at first glance, and there are only a couple of other silver linings out there, which aren't exactly applicable across the board. Going to have to try to dig out some more analysis.