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Author Topic: Painting a Black Swan  (Read 6217 times)

Criptfeind

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #30 on: June 06, 2010, 09:49:11 pm »

Young up and coming scientist kicks Einstein in the nuts and makes FTL travel.

Not sure if it would be good or bad but it would certainly be interesting.
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silhouette

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #31 on: June 06, 2010, 10:01:20 pm »

Well it is a theory, and the speed of light CAN be changed....
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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #32 on: June 06, 2010, 10:02:49 pm »

Well it is a theory, and the speed of light CAN be changed....

What. What unholy thing has science done this time?
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Criptfeind

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #33 on: June 06, 2010, 10:04:20 pm »

Did it change like 40,000 years ago or something? Or not, that sounds like something I would have read in world weekly news.
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Rotten

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #34 on: June 06, 2010, 10:17:26 pm »

Did it change like 40,000 years ago or something? Or not, that sounds like something I would have read in world weekly news.
There is a theory about things in physics (such as particle weights, or force strengths) changing slightly, but this is over a timescale of billions of years, and still isn't accepted by many physicists. It was in a Nature (or maybe Scientific American? I forget) article a few weeks ago.
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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #35 on: June 06, 2010, 10:20:52 pm »

*Psst*...   
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Grakelin

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #36 on: June 07, 2010, 12:35:06 am »

I think it's a big, complicated physics thing about how speed is relative to whatever is moving, such as the light.

I'm no physicist, though.
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MrWiggles

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #37 on: June 07, 2010, 01:24:33 am »


My prediction:
1. Fall of capitalism. Prices of manufacturing individual goods is dropping to nothing. Especially with things like software. Capitalism isn't working very well here.
Probably wont happen. Capitalism is working fairly well. Capitalism is doing what Us and Europe said it would do. Its help in crease standing living the world over, its helped increase literacy rates, it help increase life-spans so on. Cheaper goods means easier goods to gain, means goods are more common. Capitalism is diminishing  roles of sovereign borders. Capitalism is bring the world closer together. What we're seeing really is shift economic center. The tallest this, richest that, longest this ect, are no longer in the US, or Europe or other well known first world country. They're in the Middle East, Northern Africa, and South East Asia.

Capitalism isn't perfect. Capitalism can't provide constant highs. Capitalism does provide small increases over time.

As crappy as it sounds, Sweat house labor are some best jobs to get in countries which have them. They have the best pay, least danger.

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2. Change in religious sentiment. I think there's been a massive shift in religious beliefs throughout the last 50 years. Some big religions get smaller, at least four small ones getting more popular. Middle eastern religion is becoming significantly more organized, western religion fighting to be more secular.
I would like to see, but I'm biased. Secularism is growing, though the last time I checked, Islamic beliefs were still having better overall growth. Spain is a has state religion. You used to be able to pay your taxes at churches. This has declined, as is overall church attendence, and its decrease.  England its almost consider goshe to be religious. Its catching, defiantly. And eventually it'll get there. I bet africa, Middle east and south and central america will probably holds out for ever.

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3. Fall of Israel. Israel's a horse that a lot of nations are betting on or against, but they're losing out. That flotilla raid was Turkey's Pearl Harbour - they've been very ambivalent on Israel, and that's just shoved them and much of the EU towards the hostile side of the fence.
I dont see this happening either. the UK and the US are sorta forced in forever need to keep Israel going since its their baby after world war 2. Its not impossible, but as long as they dont piss the UK and US off at the same, they'll have some sorta of support.

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4. Nuclear weapons. As people begin to accept terrorism as a valid war strategy, it'd be more morally acceptable to kill civilians. WW2 Japan will be used as propaganda of nukes = peace. Guns were once immoral. Planes were immoral. Cruise missiles were immoral. There's going to be a time when some country owns nukes and nukes no longer become immoral.
I can see the line of reasoning here. Though unlike conventional ordance, nukes will fuck everyone and thats an undeniable fact. (Though some powers on the world want to really really badly.) Even small tactical nukes will affect more then its intended targets.

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5. Electric car. One of the founders of Better Place gave a talk about how they planned to give everyone electric cars, make a pile of profits, and help the average person save money. This includes revolutionizing the energy grid. It also means that petrol prices will drop massively.. all those nations reliant on oil exports.. well...
This would be awesome, however it faces the exact same issue as green power generations. We lack the ability to store industrial amounts of electricity. We can totally make electrical cars now, however no one wants to give up on amenities they have grown used to when the cars that have are still on the market. Not impossible, just impossible for the near future.

It would need a few things to happen that are independent of each other. There been talk about using nano tech to restructure silicon based batteries which have been known for years to be a better reservoir for electricity then lithium, and the other main stream materiel, it however had no longevity. By restructuring the interlay of the silicon, this issue can be circumvented quite handily. We already have a large silicon industry that could handle this production. I dont know whats going on here. I havent read up on it in the last year or so.

The other thing, is room temperature super conductors. This would let up use our crappy batteries/capacitors and still have electrical cars, among ushering a new industrial revolution.

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6. Quantum mechanics, nanotechnology, and signal processing. There growing fast like the electrical companies were boosting up in the 80s. I've seen some amazing things done with them and studied under one of the pioneers. Huge bonuses to almost every field in every day life, it'll change life just the way the computer did. And at least introduce more privacy concerns.

What this means is pretty unpredictable, but I bet they'll be significant.

I got nothing really. We dont have to many applications for nanotech right now, other then its really cool and it could do a lot. Its just to much in its infancy to counted on. Kinda of like carbon nanotubes. For my QM anything always raises red flags. I dont know to much on signal processing.



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1. Fall of capitalism. Prices of manufacturing individual goods is dropping to nothing. Especially with things like software. Capitalism isn't working very well here.
I hope so, but I also hope that communism does not take over, communism is the better idea but it never works, we need a combination between communism and capitalism.
Anarchism is supposedly another dream that wont come reality, but who knows.
What we really need is a dictator of the world who actually cares for its people, and who isn't greedy, very very very very rare...
Communism does fail when its applied. Though I dont believe you mean communism here at all but socialism. And Anarchism in all its various all fail. Human beings have been governing themselves for about four thousand years+, and not once anywhere did it work. And we've done a lot of weird form of governments. Hell, there suppose to a town in the netherlands that anarchy, but it functions closer to a socialist democracy.

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2. Change in religious sentiment. I think there's been a massive shift in religious beliefs throughout the last 50 years. Some big religions get smaller, at least four small ones getting more popular. Middle eastern religion is becoming significantly more organised, western religion fighting to be more secular.
Personally, i think religion should be kept to oneself and not shared or organised, each to their own, but i doubt thats going to happen.
Obviously theirs the dark horse of middle eastern religion taking over, and you know how some of them have the thoughts that religion should be connected with the government.
(Speaking of religion connecting with the government, this is pretty much happened/happening but on a weirder scale in the U.S, if you look at it, only Christian presidents have been presidents, and therefore the ideas of said presidents...)
Sigh. I suggest doing something called reading and research.  Only for the last 40 years has religion been a concern for presidency. Thanks to the cold fucking war hold overs. /sigh.

Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Abe Lincoln werent christians or very Christians. Jefferson made the least magical religion to date. There so none magical, they get confused and hang out merrily with secularist. There  are others I could list with effort, but these were on the top of my head.


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4. Nuclear weapons. As people begin to accept terrorism as a valid war strategy, it'd be more morally acceptable to kill civilians. WW2 Japan will be used as propaganda of nukes = peace. Guns were once immoral. Planes were immoral. Cruise missiles were immoral. There's going to be a time when some country owns nukes and nukes no longer become immoral.
Japan was used as a test for their nukes, poor Japan, might reflect the crazy shit going on their, but hey, might be right, after all Japan has pretty much declared that they wont participate in wars any more.
Poor planes, what did they ever do to people :(.
And as for the civilian thing, this probably will happen as well, naturally much latter down the track.

I dont know whats going on here.

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5. Electric car. One of the founders of Better Place gave a talk about how they planned to give everyone electric cars, make a pile of profits, and help the average person save money. This includes revolutionizing the energy grid. It also means that petrol prices will drop massively.. all those nations reliant on oil exports.. well...
YEA! Damn countries reliant on oil, leave the oil alone.
But electricity will soon dominate almost every aspect of society as it is getting more and more advanced.
Sooner or later electric cars will take over the oil dependant cars, in all aspects, speed, cost, efficiency, Etc...
But perhaps the oil industries will attempt to hold back the revolution of electric cars by assassinating people, hell, its happened before...
I dont know if you are being real here, so I have a tin foil hat for you on hold. Oil companies, all of them know they are in a loosing industry. The big mean evil oil companies are some of the largest investors in green technology. Their getting ready to jump ships because of capitalist pressure for profit.


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- Mechanical upgrades to the human body, this would be accepted for the people who were in accidents or had birth deformations, to have their body parts replaced with better mechanical ones.
Further on in, perhaps only by a year or so, people will start demanding them and getting their body parts replaced just for the upgrades, as a mechanical body part would be better than an organic one.
Their will be some people who resent the mechanical upgrades and prefer to stay natural, sooner or later another war will occur, and depending on the technology...
The six million dollar man will stay a dream for a very long time. There no real method as of yet to let the human body use anything bionics. There large persisting issue between infections, dying tissue, numb nerve endings. Even something as simple as the heart has proven to be a great challenge. These are just technologies in making the body accept it has none organic things in it.

There have been some small successes. There are artificial ears, and eyes that have shown moderate success, though they require cranial implants.

This doesnt include the issues with legality, and getting any of these bionic parts approved, and even if super bionic parts would ever be approved or made. Let alone the probable expense. As even a manual claw are quite expensive.

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-Control of the population.
I mean numbers.
Sooner or later people will start culling the populations of the world, as we are getting ever so close to the carrying capacity of the earth.
It will happen naturally, whether by leaving it alone till we topple over the carrying capacity and millions die of starvation, or if it happens before we go past the carrying capacity.

...
Anyway, a lower amount of population = better, but not too low otherwise we will have less difference in the human race, which equals bad for evolution.
This doesn't need to happen. Reading and some research. If you take a gander at the UN world population study, you'll see that moderate predictions has the world population capping at 10 billion by um. Fuck. 2030? Or was it 2050? I cant remember which decade right now. Third world nations will continue to have high birth rates, while industrialized countries will have none sustaining birth rates. We may see stabilization or decline after this. In which case, its well under humanity ability to take care of itself.

And even if it did need to happen, there no legal or moral way to do so except through means which are happening now. Education and provision for birth control, which will help consolidate the 10 billion popcap.

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-The second dark age.
Self explanatory

-The second golden age.
Self explanatory

I guess they are, but their so nebulous they dont say anything. There been many golden ages and a few dark ages. These terms are ill define to be productive.

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-Lack of resources causing people to go to drastic measures, nuclear power plants becoming the norm.
Third/second world countries, sometimes even first world countries, building the plants shoddily, causing many disasters (fun times...).
The only real resource war will probably be over water rights and management. It probably wont come to arm conflict, just pissy politicians.

Considering the US is the strictest in terms of Nuclear power plants, no probably not. Our only nuclear fuck went exactly how it was suppose to, and sits on three mile island with near home and schools and not even a  worry. Modern nuclear power plants dont really have this worry. Melt down is a thing of the past with third generation plants, and you have to almost do it on purpose for second generation plants.

Third world countries lack many things in order produce nuclear power plants. Money, and the technology. No one is sharing nuke tech with countries that dont have them. The most that third world countries will get will be self contained power plants, that act functionally similar to huge batteries that can power a small town for ten years.  There a few firms in the US with them on the drawing board, but they are having a hard time getting permission to build them.

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-The evolution of cold fusion.
Allowing us to easily use cold fusion, finally an end to the energy/resource draught.
Reading and research. Cold fusion wasn't given up on because it was hard, but because its impossible. Its consider much in the same like as perpetual motion machines.

Fusion however, is doable and it will be here eventually.

Well it is a theory, and the speed of light CAN be changed....
This right here, is my biggest pet peeve. For science, theory is as good as it gets. A model of how the universe works with predictions and practical applications.  In this context, theory doesn't mean guess.

An excellent video explains this in less then 10 minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/user/potholer54#p/u/27/zcavPAFiG14

And there are some out there fringe science with models showing fluxing c, but its not the accept due to its poor evidence.  With what we know now, it holds best that c was and is always constant.

If anyone is interested in learning about Relativity, these video series are high quality, very accurate very digestible explanations.
http://www.cassiopeiaproject.com/vid_courses3.php?Tape_Name=Relativity
« Last Edit: June 07, 2010, 01:36:27 am by MrWiggles »
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PTTG??

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #38 on: June 07, 2010, 12:59:20 pm »

Well it is a theory...

I will never respect you as long as you or I live. I will take great pains to ensure that, carved on your gravestone, will be the text "Here is silhouette, who did not know the meaning of the word "Theory"."
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kuro_suna

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #39 on: June 07, 2010, 01:14:17 pm »

According to stephen hawking going faster than the speed of light is impossible but messing around with the flow of time is surprisingly easy. I wonder if you could make something like a FTL drive if you made a sort of time space onion where each layer has a different amount plus or minus of time dilation.
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Muz

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #40 on: June 07, 2010, 02:10:54 pm »

Plenty of valid points, Mr Wiggles... but I think the discussion is about things that sound impossible but will happen :P Things like changing the laws of physics don't count. But any "probably won't happen" cases are just the right ones to discuss.

Capitalism brought good things, but so has monarchy. The USA practices some very extreme, evil capitalism though. You have people these days putting money at higher priority than everything else, including life. There's the Enron scandal, national debt, there's people selling their houses to afford a life saving operation. Any opposition on the USA health reforms boils down to people not wanting to pay to keep illegal immigrants (other humans) alive. It's not impossible for "pure capitalism" to fall some day, and replaced with a more socialist version.

Quantum mechanics isn't impossible. I mean heck, they're teaching practical uses for it in the undergraduate level now where I study, with some quantum computers and quantum cryptography prototypes being worked on. Signal processing is the stuff that lets you do Photoshop stuff, radars, and is how your graphics card works. It's still not really taught in itself, but someday, it'll be a course on it's own, just like electronics and photonics are no longer a part of Physics courses. When that happens.. well, real time Photoshopping your face will be easy, spy gadgets, image enhancement, communications, security devices, anything involving illusions and detection will be dirt cheap.

Electrical cars are also very possible.. plenty people I personally know have a working model of a car. Electrical storage and connection to the grid (so that it doesn't shut down when everyone recharges their battery at once) are being worked on at this moment, they're getting investors from energy companies and governments. If you look at that link, it's already affordable, practical, and governments love it.

Cold fusion isn't very likely soon, but I don't see it any more impossible than building giant robots. Hey, we've got transistors smaller than most molecules, impossible to imagine 50 years ago. Cold fusion is many steps away, but a breakthrough somewhere else could make it possible.
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Jreengus

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #41 on: June 07, 2010, 05:53:00 pm »

Well it is a theory, and the speed of light CAN be changed....

What. What unholy thing has science done this time?
As I understand it the speed of light does change all the time, depending on what it's travelling through. What we refer to as the speed of light is simply the speed of light in a vacuum.
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MrWiggles

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #42 on: June 07, 2010, 06:28:03 pm »

The US doesn't practice evil capitalism, more then then anywhere else its takes a high place. Capitalism, like most models of economics, if not all are amoral. Capitalism focuses on profits, with high margins and gives rewards for doing so. It makes no judgment toward what the products are, or what they do to the end users. Capitalism would be happy selling broken glass as a sore throat remedy as it did selling slaves. Thats where regulations and laws come in. Capitalism is the mechanics of the game, laws are the rules of the game.

And socialized medicine is not better then privative medicine. They both have pros and con. It seems there growing tiredness of privatized medicine. So now the US wants to try it hands at the pro and cons of social medicine. *shrugs* Medicine is expensive. It takes years of training, years of research, years of trials, and years of experiments. The man hours for almost anything medical is mind boggling. This expense is there if the medicine is socialized or privatized.

And lets not forgot, that socialism of any scale is expensive. Not just terms of money but of resources. Resource distribution is currently just driven by money. Who is going to be paying for this if there no system that thrives on making resource distributions, cheaper, efficient and profitable?

Capitalism is one of the tools that allows the US and, the other first world nations to be where they are today. Its one of the more important tools. Its not perfect, but I dont see it going away until resource distribution doesn't cost resources of itself to distribute. Star Trek federation has a high form of some sort of socialism. This is because, energy is basically free. From this,  clothes are free, food is free, construction materiel are mostly free. With little cost in garnering resources come with little cost of distributing them.

Capitalism is trying to do this. Capitalism can make itself obsolete.

Capitalism tumbles, but it so far doesn't tumble as far as it did once ago, and it gets higher overall after such tumbles. The biggest tumble was the great depression. This along with WW2 caused US to spring forth into a super power, and had a gold era of the 1950 and 60s economically and technologically. Not really in terms of domestics or civil issues. Though no golden era is all encompassing.

Cold Fusion isn't hard. Its so improbable that its functionally impossible. There been research into it nigh on 90 years. The only other research field that been as stagnant from its inception to contemporary time is parapsychology. Its buckus. Bunk. Woo. And unfortunately so.

Wikipedia article supports this. Heck, there was a Time article just a couple of months ago where a new method of cold fusion failed as it always has when it came for it to be reproduced and for the research to be peer reviewed.

Fission. Thats where its at. That near future.

I also didnt mean to suggest that QM was impossible, it meant that QM anything, generally gets tagged an explanation for various forms of woo, such as telepathy or perpetual motion or the furry sub cultural who believe they can be reincarnation of fictional animals. I really wish I kidding on any of those points. It forces me to take it with a grain of salt.

If I had the money, I would totally get a Telsa Roadster electric sport car. It gives props to the underrated crazy fuck Telsa, so thats a plus but its one smexy roaster. It also has some decent range. Not as good as other luxury sports cars or convention cars.

The web site is cool, danke for the link. Electrical cars are making progress. Though I could be wrong, but the site doesn't address the general issues with electrical cars. Driving range, amenities and maintenance cost. Generally an electrical car can do well in one of these categories currently but are sub par in other, where conventional fuel cars dont.

Battery replacement (or capacitor) and driving range are two huge obstacles that are being tackled. It'll get there, because it has to.  Its just kinda no where near competing with a conventional cars.
Hybrids though are a genius compromise.


My general list of my general holy shit nearish technologies that will change the world (Though its not an OH NOES BAD SHIT LIST):

Room temp medicine: This one is incredibly simple but so hard. One of the greatest hurdles in health care, is almost all medication and supplies need to be kept refrigerated. This is a gross and huge cost, and it makes getting good health care in rural and under developed nations extremely hard.  With this, the cost of medicine would be cut down by several factors.

Room Temp Superconductors: I've touched on this previously. Majority of all electrical energy produced is wasted through inefficient transfers and expelled as wasted heat. This would drive cost down in all industries. This would make electricity easer to produce, cheaper to produce. This would make electrical cars ready feasible, instead eventually feasible. This would make reliance on green power plants readily feasible. As green power plants have two critical obstacles, the most major is inability to store industrial amounts of electricity. The second is that the areas where the green power production would be best is far away from the areas of largest consummations, therefore require longer power transfer lines.

Mass Production of Carbon Nanotubes: This is as close as there is to unobtanium. Earth quake proof building, fire proof buildings. Cheaper building to make, as carbon nanotubes apparently love getting their freak on and make more carbon nanotubes from the thin fuckin air. This would make space elevators viable. This would be the crown jewel of materiel engineering, even more then room temp superconductors. So many human activities require strengths in materials that barely exist and are barely capable of preforming the job.

GM Hysteria dies the fuck down, and everyone forgets about organic foodstuffs: This one is a bit more colorful then other two, as its closer to a pet peeve then real world changers. Organic foods are bullshit. Just more expensive, less efficient way to grow the exactly the same superior breed crops. China had a serve vitiam deficiency. They modified their largest superior rice crop to contain the lacking nutrient, and bam problem solved! There hearty wheat variations for low rainfall regions so they can grow their own food. Its what we've been doing with crops for the last eleven thousand years. Selecting and creating desired traits to make them grow faster, give better nutrients and easier to grow. Instead of taking decades to centuries to get a new crop, it can now take months to years. And there no danger. No new allergies or ecological harm has arisen from GM foodstuff, as it is taken into account.
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Footkerchief

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #43 on: June 07, 2010, 06:29:02 pm »

*Psst*...   
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The artificial kind is always missing something.
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MrWiggles

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Re: Painting a Black Swan
« Reply #44 on: June 07, 2010, 06:29:47 pm »

Well it is a theory, and the speed of light CAN be changed....

What. What unholy thing has science done this time?
As I understand it the speed of light does change all the time, depending on what it's travelling through. What we refer to as the speed of light is simply the speed of light in a vacuum.

This is true, it is however constant. c does not change within those medium even if c is different between mediums.
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