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[Duke 2.0]

Oil Geyser Option 2 - Pray For Peak Oil?
One option not commonly being discussed, which goes hand-in-hand with the 3+ month drilling project, is the possibility that the well will just run out of pressure and stop leaking.  There's only so much oil down there after all, and the water pressure is pretty high.  Why that hasn't happened yet, I don't know, but I guess it's squeezing the oil out like a pimple right now.  Anyway, twiddling our thumbs is always a good backup plan.

but peak oil is a myth, the most hansom politicians of my nation have assured me that only demand controls the amount of oil on earth.

So if we stop demandng it, the oil leak will end! EUREKA!

Finally, a practical use for the green movement.

[Sean Mirrsen]

Aqizzar, oil is lighter than water. I'm not sure of the physics involved, but it's going to get a pretty major updraft I think, since rock is pushing on the reservoir and oil seeks to surface. It'd be the same thing if it was an air pocket, except air would escape much faster since it's much lighter. In this sense, a relief well might not even work.

[Nonsapient]

The part that amazes me most is that the oil is squirting out at all.  I mean, the water pressure at that depth is like four tons per square inch.  And yet the oil is gushing out like a landbound spindletop, months after the well was drilled and weeks after it broke.  Apparently, there's so much oil down there at at 3000 fathoms, all you have to do is jam a pipe in the ground, and you can't stop the oil from coming out.  I can see why it's so attractive.

yeah.  depending on the way they produced it, though, that will end sooner rather than later.  I'm guessing they drilled several laterals and offshoots, making a warren of holes in the ground.  Needless to say, this increases the rate at which the oil comes out,  but it drastically shortens the lifespan of the well. 

They may also have fractured the reservoir,  which has the same effect,  but worse;  in addition to making the oil come quicker, it makes the surrounding formation really difficult to drill through (because it is all broken up);  this could have big nasty effects on the relief wells.

With the relief well, what they'll do is drill into the original wellbore, then seal it off with high density mud to keep the oil from shooting out anymore.  After they get the original well sealed, they might go in and make the relief well a production well,  but it'll always be pretty malfed up.

The technical challenges of oil production are very neat.  It is a horrid horrid industry though, and I wouldn't recommend anyone getting into it if they want to keep their soul clean.

[smigenboger]

But a relief well would allow BP to continue to make profits, especially once the gushing pipe is operational once again.

[Jreengus]

Oil Geyser Option 2 - Pray For Peak Oil?
One option not commonly being discussed, which goes hand-in-hand with the 3+ month drilling project, is the possibility that the well will just run out of pressure and stop leaking.  There's only so much oil down there after all, and the water pressure is pretty high.  Why that hasn't happened yet, I don't know, but I guess it's squeezing the oil out like a pimple right now.  Anyway, twiddling our thumbs is always a good backup plan.

but peak oil is a myth, the most hansom politicians of my nation have assured me that only demand controls the amount of oil on earth.

So if we stop demandng it, the oil leak will end! EUREKA!

Quick we need to work out alternative energy sources before the oil consumes us all. I suggest a switch to nibbler power!

Spoiler: Blank space? What bla- Oh this blank space! (click to show/hide)

[Aqizzar]

Guys, if you're going to build a pyramid, at least take out that giant blank space.

yeah.  depending on the way they produced it, though, that will end sooner rather than later.  I'm guessing they drilled several laterals and offshoots, making a warren of holes in the ground.  Needless to say, this increases the rate at which the oil comes out,  but it drastically shortens the lifespan of the well. 

They may also have fractured the reservoir,  which has the same effect,  but worse;  in addition to making the oil come quicker, it makes the surrounding formation really difficult to drill through (because it is all broken up);  this could have big nasty effects on the relief wells.

With the relief well, what they'll do is drill into the original wellbore, then seal it off with high density mud to keep the oil from shooting out anymore.  After they get the original well sealed, they might go in and make the relief well a production well,  but it'll always be pretty malfed up.

Yeah, I'm basing everything I know about oil-drilling from grainy monochrome photos of carpetbaggers and wooden derricks.  Interesting stuff though.  I'm surprised I haven't heard what method of drilling they went for, because that would certainly fuck up the relief well.  What does their estimate of 90 days to drill it sound like to you?

[Sean Mirrsen]

We can just switch to whale oil you know.

I think if it goes on for 90 more days like it already does, nuking is an environmentally safer option.

[Nonsapient]

Yeah, I'm basing everything I know about oil-drilling from grainy monochrome photos of carpetbaggers and wooden derricks.  Interesting stuff though.  I'm surprised I haven't heard what method of drilling they went for, because that would certainly fuck up the relief well.  What does their estimate of 90 days to drill it sound like to you?

My boss was over one of the biggest relief wells on land;  it was a situation much like this  but the well was spewing fire in addition.    That took about three months to re-intersect the wellbore. 

i don't THINK they fractured the well, just did a few laterals.  I haven't been able to find anything on it though,  what with all the white noise in the media. 

One reason it takes so long is that you have to be very careful in analyzing your error possibilities.  Down there, you're pretty much limited to magnetic and inertial guidance (with some other very neat toys) , and have no way to check those against a surface reference.  If your tool has a ± 1 ° error per 1000' drilled,  by the time you reach 20,000 you have up to a 40° cone that your string might be in;  that makes it really hard to pinpoint a well that is less than a foot across.

So they'll be constantly re-checking things to try to minimize their chance of failure,  indexing what formation they think they are in compared to where they think they should be,  what the composition of the mud is, etc.  It'll be a very large operation.

[Blacken]

British Petroleum, Transocean, and our old friends Haliburton (because it wouldn't be a party without them) testifying that everything was someone else's fault, and that they were all totally in compliance with America's oceanic drilling laws

Of them, BP and TransOcean are going to be on the hook. Halliburton is fashionable to rage about, but they're not the party responsible for this: they're a contracting company, ffs. They do what they're told, and BP specifically told them to dispense with some of the recommended-but-not-legally-required standard procedures (which they did under protest).

BP's gonna get fu-uuuuucked. And that's assuming the relief wells do get taken care of correctly. This is gonna be a mess of court cases for a decade-plus.

[Aqizzar]

Oh I know Halliburton is a small fry in the scheme of things, I just find it hilarious that there's hardly a sticky situation America is involved in that doesn't have Halliburton's fingerprints on it somewhere.  Given their track record, I'd be amazed if there wasn't some extra corner they cut, but yeah it's mostly BP's game to lose, and Transocean is going to get reamed too.

The degree of reamage depends entirely on what happens in Congress.  Current, reparation of damages and cleanup is capped at a paltry $75million.  The Democrats want to rush through an amendment to that law either abolishing the limit or raising it a nice round number like $10billion, and the Republicans by numbers certainly aren't suicidal enough to try and stop them.  What I'm worried about is the law still taking too long to pass (reaching $75mil or such soon), and then BP claiming that they're not liable for anything after that due to the law being a post facto attainder.  They're going to be losing a lot of civil court cases for a very long time though.

Actually, my bigger worry is that oil prices are going to shoot through the roof as BP jacks up their rates to make sure they don't lose a dime.  Given the oil industry's smashing record of turning disasters and shortages into record-profit quarters, I wouldn't be surprised to see the spill cleaned up by next year, as BP break's Exxon's profit records with gas at $7 a gallon.

[Nonsapient]

Actually, my bigger worry is that oil prices are going to shoot through the roof as BP jacks up their rates to make sure they don't lose a dime.  Given the oil industry's smashing record of turning disasters and shortages into record-profit quarters, I wouldn't be surprised to see the spill cleaned up by next year, as BP break's Exxon's profit records with gas at $7 a gallon.

In terms of supply, this is ludicrous.  With that said,  I would be shocked if something like that were not to happen.

[smigenboger]

AT least there are some regulations set in place to make it not too horrible

[Il Palazzo]

gas at $7 a gallon.

1 gallon= 3.8 litres
1 USD =~3 PLN

7USD per gallon =~ 5 PLN per litre

Price of gasoline in Poland 4,6 - 4,7 PLN per liter.

And those Americans still complain.

[Aqizzar]

That's exactly why I picked that number.  What you don't understand is that Americans do a fuckton more driving than Europeans do, because we built all our cities in the 1950s when gas was a nickle a gallon and public transportation was a laughing stock.  We don't have many alternatives.

[Nonsapient]

That's exactly why I picked that number.  What you don't understand is that Americans do a fuckton more driving than Europeans do, because we built all our cities in the 1950s when gas was a nickle a gallon and public transportation was a laughing stock.  We don't have many alternatives.

My wife (from Norway) was amazed at how much we drive here, and how far.  It took her a while to really grasp that public transportation in Texas doesn't really exist;  that not owning a car meant you couldn't be employed.