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Author Topic: I have an Idea, Thoughts?  (Read 3477 times)

Char13magne

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I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« on: May 04, 2010, 08:00:18 am »

So, hi again guys!
My idea is thus;
humans have great calculating and computing abilities, and are even able to predict the outcomes of events in such narrowed down and focused things as, say, videogames. However, we lack both the memory and the observation skills to take note of and apply the effects of multiple variables from our surroundings into our mental computations, and this is why the ability to predict the outcomes of events in real life is such a rare and treasured trait. So, your thoughts gentlemen?
« Last Edit: May 04, 2010, 08:22:14 am by Char13magne »
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fenrif

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2010, 08:53:38 am »

Wut?

Humans can predict video games, but can't predict the outcomes of real life? This is your idea? At the risk of being offensive... Wut?

Humans constantly predict the outcomes of events in real life. Its how we live our lives. Without the ability to predict the outcome of things, our lives would be incomprehensable strings of completely random events.
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cerapa

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2010, 09:13:44 am »

We predict things constantly. Thats exactly what we do. We put our food in cold places so it doesnt rot and hunt animals by predicting where they will run and setting up traps. Does a rabbit do that?
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2010, 09:17:57 am »

Many animals do that too. You dont require ellaborate abstract thoughts (which is what humans do) to predict stuff (even if it helps). For instance, predicting how a potential prey will bolt is essential to predators.
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Nilocy

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2010, 09:36:53 am »

I'd be very scared if I couldn't predict things. Infact, mostly likely I'd be dead.
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RedKing

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2010, 09:37:36 am »

If I understand what the OP is trying to get at (and that's a big if), it's that we can predict narrowly modeled simulations or simple scenarios based on past experience. What we suck at is predicting complex and/or unprecedented situations. We can't predict "the future" (i.e. the sum total of billions of discrete events over a given time horizon).

To which, I'd have to say...duh? It's easy to predict something with two variables. As opposed to a complex geopolitical situation which literally has thousands of significant variables. And numerous potential outcomes.
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Aqizzar

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2010, 09:45:51 am »

I disagree completely.  Making good predictions on narrow sets of data is exactly what computers are good at; humans are good at it too because it's not that hard.  What living brains excel at is using past information and experiences, an incomplete and non-codified data set, and no strict instructions, and making all the predictions it wants about any complex subject.  Of course accuracy falls with lack of information, and if you throw an oddball question at someone that they have no familiarity with, all they can say is they don't know.  But predicting the product of a "calculation" without even knowing what the "calculation" is or needing to ascribe any hard rules or variables to it is something humans do all the time, about every subject.  That's what intuition is.

Sure, our memory of past scenarios isn't always that great, but we are talking about a storage system based on active chemistry, if we even do know what memory is based on.  We're still surprisingly good about remembering things, precisely because we don't have to enumerate everything in our entire experience to use it in a prediction.  Present two people with a problem, whatever it is, and the one with more experience with similar problems will give a more accurate prediction, even if he can't precisely describe a single example he's basing that prediction on.  We remember stuff deep in the intuitive brain a lot better than we're able to consciously express.
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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2010, 09:54:40 am »

If anything people are too quick on the inductive draw, believing crazy things because of a few disparate data points.

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RedKing

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2010, 10:17:53 am »

I'd qualify that by saying that computers are far better at predicting things which can be mathematically modeled *and* which have accounted for most, if not all, of the significant variables. A computer will generally be a far more accurate and faster solution to plotting an artillery strike, for instance.

What we do better is "fuzzy" calculation, where we make a rough estimate to account for unknown variables based on past experience without necessarily being able to quantify or even explain why. More experience, better estimates.

In theory, a good enough AI could do the same thing, and faster. But modeling that heuristic loop that allows humans to do fuzzy learning is one of the core problems with AI design.
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Char13magne

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2010, 11:40:12 am »

If I understand what the OP is trying to get at (and that's a big if), it's that we can predict narrowly modeled simulations or simple scenarios based on past experience. What we suck at is predicting complex and/or unprecedented situations. We can't predict "the future" (i.e. the sum total of billions of discrete events over a given time horizon).

This is more what I was getting at. Although I would like to add that in the short term, even our lack of some refinement in our more advanced organs that allow extreme perception can prevent us from predicting a proper outcome (an example that displays the opposite, Sherlock Holmes can predict future events because his senses are super-humanly acute, albeit he is fictional).
« Last Edit: May 04, 2010, 11:55:39 am by Char13magne »
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fenrif

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2010, 12:00:25 pm »

Humans can't predict the future, eh?

In other news, the sky is blue!
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Char13magne

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2010, 12:08:25 pm »

Humans can't predict the future, eh?

In other news, the sky is blue!

In this case, you've just missed the point, we can't predict complicated events well into the future.
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"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets."
               Voltaire
                   
"To have another language is to possess a second soul."              
               Charlemagne

fenrif

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2010, 12:22:45 pm »

Humans can't predict the future, eh?

In other news, the sky is blue!

In this case, you've just missed the point, we can't predict complicated events well into the future.


No, I get the point, it's just moot.



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Char13magne

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2010, 12:24:36 pm »

Humans can't predict the future, eh?

In other news, the sky is blue!

In this case, you've just missed the point, we can't predict complicated events well into the future.


No, I get the point, it's just moot.

My point, oh, alright, your opinion I guess, which I see is shared by the rest of the viewing community :-\. :-[
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"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets."
               Voltaire
                   
"To have another language is to possess a second soul."              
               Charlemagne

ChairmanPoo

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Re: I have an Idea, Thoughts?
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2010, 12:26:05 pm »

yes we can. Just check a weather forecast.
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