Hi!
I have only recieved about 3 waves of immigrants, topping out at 18 dwarves. Also, only 2 caravans and neither are from dwarves. Its been about two or three years. Since I never embarked with an anvil, I'm somewhat screwed, aren't I?
Well, it is difficult to say, but if you do get human caravans, it is not completely hopeless. I advice you to start by deactivating invaders in the init file. You probably won't be able to get up decent defenses without an anvil, so you need to buy a little time there.
Now, humans do create and sell anvils, so even if you don't get dwarves, you can hope for the humans to bring an anvil. Since you don't have a barony, you won't get the human diplomat, it seems, so you can't request an anvil directly. However, the caravans seem to respond to your purchases: So, if the caravan brings metal bars, buy only metal bars from them. And if they bring iron bars, buy only iron bars from them. Hopefully, this will make them more likely to bring iron goods and thus eventually an iron anvil.
On the other hand, even if you don't have an anvil, you can still trade for picks from the humans. For extra woodcutting (I assume you started with at least one tool of each type), a wooden training axe will do. Also note that goblins are now the same size as dwarves, so you should be able to use their equipment - once you have made them part with it permanently. Without bronze or steel weapons, weapon traps are comparatively weak, so you will probably need very deep defenses, but it is not impossible, I think.
Halo: The d_init is universal as far as I know, so it is not such a file issue. So, either the pop cap is no longer flexible (has anyone tested that?), your fortress already has the pop cap number of citizens, or there is some other reason that makes dwarves reluctant to visit (lots of deaths, for instance).
Deathworks