The European Union is going to collapse due to international tensions between the various member states, specifically, Greece and Germany. If you are unaware of the situation in the area, it's simply this; Greece is taking on massive debts without any economy to back them up in a way that makes the United States over the past ten years look like the paragon of smart spending.
The European Union has tasked Germany with taking on the lion's share of Greece's debt in order to prop up the Greek economy. German media and politicians are getting very sick of it. The current generation of Germans does not remember World War 2, and thus they cannot be guilt tripped into it as they had been before. In the middle of a world wide recession, in the midst of Germany's own economic problems.
Throw in the crypto-Fascist running Italy, and you have a set up in Europe similar to the late 1920's. The Balkans is still a powder keg, Germany is pissed at the rest of Europe, Italy is run by a madman, and the world is in a deep economic crisis. Throw in the increasing waves of Muslim immigrants from North Africa and the Middle east all throughout Europe while distrust of Muslims is particularly high, leading to such things as the Anti-minaret law in Switzerland, and you have a major powder keg in Europe that only needs a fuse to be lit. For a modern Archduke Ferdinand to be assassinated. The situation is sensitive enough for it to spiral out of control.