Wagon opening on left, immigrant opening on right:
The elves came in by the wagon entrance every time, as did both the dwarven caravan and the pack animals (though they do this even on maps where they can appear anywhere). When I put the trade depot right by the immigrant entrance, some of the pack animals leave by that route. What's more interesting to me is that the liaison appeared for a decade in a row with the wagons. This was unexpected, since they appear even in locations from which they can't reach the fortress. That's not by the wagon connectivity map, which apparently is generated upon embark and then never checked again, but by the normal one which says that two levels connected only by floored-over edge ramps are not actually connected, stupid.
This map might or might not be used by sieges as well. On the one hand, I've had a squad turn up on one of these cut-off areas. On the other hand, I've had them turn up all over the map on another river-split fort. That one did freeze in winter, though, and any map that freezes will be frozen at the start of the year. Perhaps that's another test -- find a map with a river that freezes, and see what depots on either side do. I don't know how this would affect the liaison though. If frozen rivers counted as initial wagon access, there would be a lot of liaisons turning up on the wrong side of rivers.