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[The Architect]

It definitely was abrasive and argumentative here.

[Sutremaine]

c) even if a mood happens, it is chance based which dwarf gets the mood. with 20+ dwarves and only 3 that have metal related skills you want a mood for, chances are not particularly high that the proper dwarv gets chosen.

C is lessened with the knowledge you can get moods with only 7 dwarves, but is still true.  But one in seven chance, probably not good odds to recommend to a new player, especially considering population will grow more slowly in those forts (making them more vulnerable longer).

Do you have any evidence of this?

[SenorOcho]

It definitely was abrasive and argumentative here.

Which was really too bad, because you were right- Its FAR easier to get food from the caravan and have your farming up and running by the first winter than it is to trade for an anvil when all you have are piles of food and a few stone crafts and then try to make a metal industry with unskilled dwarves.
Bringing a single native platinum rock with you and having your starting Proficient Metal Crafter make something out of it can get you anything you might find yourself NEEDING from that first autumn caravan.  This is done with merely seven labor tasks, counting the building constructions.  And now you have time to focus 100% on getting in the ground before the orcs show up.  Or on your magma forges.  Or your drowning chamber.  Etc...

[random51]

Which was really too bad, because you were right- Its FAR easier to get food from the caravan and have your farming up and running by the first winter than it is to trade for an anvil when all you have are piles of food and a few stone crafts and then try to make a metal industry with unskilled dwarves.
Bringing a single native platinum rock with you and having your starting Proficient Metal Crafter make something out of it can get you anything you might find yourself NEEDING from that first autumn caravan.  This is done with merely seven labor tasks, counting the building constructions.  And now you have time to focus 100% on getting in the ground before the orcs show up.  Or on your magma forges.  Or your drowning chamber.  Etc...

Seems to me like you're seeing things the way you want them to be, not how they actually are.  Whether you go with or without an anvil you'll have no problem digging in before the first wave of non-wildlife enemy shows up.

You also seem to be saying that food production requires a lot of effort. One dwarf can feed 100+. It is less effort than metalworking, that is for sure.

While you can usually get enough food from caravans you cannot get enough booze, at least in my experience.

BTW, I was able to keep my footprint small enough that I went 3 years without having enough area uncovered to trigger a strange mood. I got an anvil off the first caravan and all it took was 1-2 bins of stonecrafts which took all of one season to produce, if that.

Your premise rests upon the assumption that metalworking is important early on, an assumption that doesn't seem to hold true for many people/forts.

I'm not saying it is wrong for you to prefer to take an anvil, I'm just saying your rationalizations for what is basically personal preference don't hold any water. The logic behind not taking an anvil is some basic math expressing how many other things you can buy for the cost of that anvil you don't need for seasons, if not years.

[nil]

From a number-crunching perspective I guess I've been convinced by the anti-anvil arguments; it would be nice to have the points to bring a breeding pair of cows, even if there's not much else I can think of needing unless the map is treeless.  On the other hand, we're basically talking about removing the ability to use a big chunk of the game to make an already easy game easier.  In other words, maybe you don't need to use an anvil in the first year, but what if you want to?  Also, trading one iron anvil for a lifetime supply of lumber feels a little gamey to me.  I guess that's sort a drop in the bucket, though. 

I liked the old system, where you didn't (and possibly couldn't) get an anvil on embark, but always got a metalcrafter immigrant in the first fall carrying a free one.