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Author Topic: The State of the Republic?  (Read 2987 times)

Lord Dullard

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The State of the Republic?
« on: January 14, 2010, 08:35:30 pm »

Now, I don't want to make this a 'the sky is falling' type of thread, so let's try to avoid getting into either liberal or conservative talking point nonsense. Furthermore, although some alarmist articles are up for discussion here, I want to make it clear that I'm not agreeing with them simply by posting them - rather, I'd like to explore and discuss just how much merit the notion that our civilization may be on the decline has, and what steps should be taken if it is.

As the past few years have progressed, I have become more and more interested in the increasingly more visible parallels between the perceived decline of the American empire and other empires that have come before it. Before anyone takes offense to my saying 'empire', don't kid yourself - we are one, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. For the better part of the past century the actions of the United States have had arguably more worldwide impact than any other country.

Let's take a pause for a moment to examine a few quotes:

Source: http://www.statemaster.com/encyclopedia/Fall-of-a-civilisation

Quote
Theodor Mommsen in his "History of Rome", suggested Rome collapsed with the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 AD and he also tended towards a biological analogy of "genesis," "growth," "senescence," "collapse" and "decay."

Quote
Peter Turchin in his Historical Dynamics and Andrey Korotayev et al. in their Introduction to Social Macrodynamics, Secular Cycles, and Millennial Trends suggest a number of mathematical models describing collapse of agrarian civilizations. For example, the basic logic of Turchin's "fiscal-demographic" model can be outlined as follows: during the initial phase of a sociodemographic cycle we observe relatively high levels of per capita production and consumption, which leads not only to relatively high population growth rates, but also to relatively high rates of surplus production. As a result, during this phase the population can afford to pay taxes without great problems, the taxes are quite easily collectible, and the population growth is accompanied by the growth of state revenues. During the intermediate phase, the increasing overpopulation leads to the decrease of per capita production and consumption levels, it becomes more and more difficult to collect taxes, and state revenues stop growing, whereas the state expenditures grow due to the growth of the population controlled by the state. As a result, during this phase the state starts experiencing considerable fiscal problems. During the final pre-collapse phases the overpopulation leads to further decrease of per capita production, the surplus production further decreases, state revenues shrink, but the state needs more and more resources to control the growing (though with lower and lower rates) population. Eventually this leads to famines, epidemics, state breakdown, and demographic and civilization collapse (Peter Turchin. Historical Dynamics. Princeton University Press, 2003:121–127).

Quote
Arnold J. Toynbee in his monumental "A Study of History" suggested that there had been a much larger number of civilizations, including a small number of arrested civilizations, and that all civilizations tended to go through the cycle identified by Mommsen. The cause of the fall of a civilization occurred when a cultural elite became a parasitic elite, leading to the rise of internal and external proletariat.

Source: http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html

Quote
The Wealth Distribution

In the United States, wealth is highly concentrated in a relatively few hands. As of 2007, the top 1% of households (the upper class) owned 34.6% of all privately held wealth, and the next 19% (the managerial, professional, and small business stratum) had 50.5%, which means that just 20% of the people owned a remarkable 85%, leaving only 15% of the wealth for the bottom 80% (wage and salary workers). In terms of financial wealth (total net worth minus the value of one's home), the top 1% of households had an even greater share: 42.7%. Table 1 and Figure 1 present further details drawn from the careful work of economist Edward N. Wolff at New York University (2009).

When exactly does the cultural elite become the parasitic elite? It's hard to say precisely, but I'd say a pretty good measure is how good of a job of redistribution they are doing. The basics of 'trickle-down' economy and other similar conservative economic ideals assume that the cultural elite - i.e., the redistributors of wealth within our society - will act for the good of society and distribute wealth in a way that benefits those lower on the totem pole than they are. These aren't bad economic ideals (and I say this as someone who is generally liberal). For years, they've actually worked - the redistributors at the top of our society have provided the American citizen with an unprecedented level of material wealth, etc. Liberals who argue that the 'trickle-down' model of economics don't work often ignore the fact that it has successfully worked in our economy (and many other economies throughout history), where the function of the wealthy is to spread wealth in a way that benefits everyone in a society.

So what's the problem? The problem is when organizations with no fiscal responsibility or sense of morality begin to accumulate all of the profits they possibly can while totally ignoring the 'redistribution' part of the model. When corporations and individuals are allowed to hoard all of the resources available in a country without performing their fiduciary duty of redistribution, the economic model fails and we have a major problem. Under these circumstances we get the withering of the middle class that we've seen in recent years as well as the emergence of a plutarchy.

Of course, this class disparity has meant far less because of the unprecedented level of material comfort new technologies have been able to provide the average American citizen with. But the disparity has become more and more clear within the last decade - especially with the revelations that people like Bernard Madoff have literally been feeding off of the American populace like bloated financial parasites without returning anything of value or worth. And of course, he's just the very tippy-tip of the iceberg - Wall Street itself has essentially become a machine meant to fuel 'casino economics', wherein investors are lured by lenders and banks into making increasingly risky investments because of the hugely unrealistic returns that are waved in front of their faces like a monetary carrot on a stick. Homeowners prior to the housing bubble bust seemed to think their homes were giant ATM machines whose value would simply continue to increase by magic.

And at some point, 'casino economics' are absolutely guaranteed to fail. They already have once, and they will again. The problem becomes increasingly complicated with the advent of electronic worldwide trade, which is an order of magnitude more difficult to monitor and regulate than traditional methods of trade ever have been.

Another interesting article to check out is Death of 'Soul of Capitlism' by Paul B. Farrell. It comes across somewhat as fear-mongering to me, but some very good points are made about the current Crippled State of Capitalism as a whole and the fact that there's a possibility the world economy is teetering on the verge of (a much greater) systemic failure. Unlike Mr. Farrell, though, I think it's dishonest to say we absolutely know for a fact that such a systemic failure is going to happen or that we won't be able to either fix the existing system or come up with a new one in time to save ourselves and our model of life.

I had some amount of faith in Mr. Obama when he took office, but unfortunately that faith has (mostly) eroded. I think he unfortunately is a man who may have done the country a great amount of good, say, two decades ago, when his ideas might have been realistic - but probably not now. As far as I can tell he is either oblivious to the dire straits we're in and thinks the system is far more secure than it is in reality, or he's got an ace in the hole that nobody knows about. I have serious doubts about the latter.

Is it possible, though, that we're living under outdated concepts that simply aren't going to provide us with the momentum necessary to move forward? If so, what exactly do we need to fix, what do we need to replace, and what do we need to avoid? Two-faced party politics need to be avoided if a problem actually exists with the system itself. If there's a problem, the problem needs to be examined and fixed, not squabbled over while the system continues to trip over itself and invite further disaster.

It seems to me that capitalism has been tried, and has been seen to fail, and fail badly. Self-regulation might work, but is an unrealistic prospect to hope for when we have a government in place that is willing to ignore the very tenets of capitalism on which it must operate. Communism is just as bad or worse - a too-idealistic system that opens the way for people with big 'new ideas' to practice gangster politics by talking a pretty talk.

It is my personal belief that we have come to a tipping point. And even if we haven't, the timeline of the past decade should make it clear that the capitalistic model of regulating an economy is not nearly as effective as we'd hoped, especially when we allow the government to intercede and take actions that effectively quash any merit that the system of freeform capitalism has (i.e., takeovers of economic sectors (i.e., the collapse of AIG, Fannie May, Freddie Mac...)).

Does anyone at all agree with me that our current economic model is simply not going to work in the future? What ideas might work better, or which could be used to implement or fix this clearly-unhealthy situation?
« Last Edit: January 14, 2010, 09:17:14 pm by Lord Dullard »
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Aqizzar

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2010, 09:07:42 pm »

Aw dammit, I knew I should have read it when I had the chance.  It looked interesting!  I was just intimidated from reading it all at once!

At least tell me you saved it somewhere.
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sonerohi

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2010, 09:11:12 pm »

You need to -REDACTED- with the -REDACTED-.

Last edited at -REDACTED-.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2010, 11:33:49 pm by sonerohi »
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kuro_suna

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2010, 09:12:24 pm »

Personally I feel that trickle down fails when the ruling class ceases to be innovators and revolutionary's and becomes the innovators and revolutionary's children.
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Lord Dullard

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2010, 09:12:45 pm »

Well, I can re-post it. But I'm getting increasingly timid about posting anything remotely interesting here because it seems like a lot of the old politeness that used to be a hallmark of this forum has been replaced by a snarky-remark-generating-machine.

I guess it's worth a shot, though. I'll just lock the thread if people start getting mean-spirited.
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sonerohi

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2010, 09:16:39 pm »

My snarkiness was intended as a goad towards the re-posting of the OP, and I'll remove mine once it is back up. I just saw the opportunity and went with it.
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Aqizzar

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2010, 09:17:46 pm »

You know I'm interested in this sort of thing and will respond to the best of my ability, I just might not do it very quickly.
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Lord Dullard

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2010, 09:19:04 pm »

My snarkiness was intended as a goad towards the re-posting of the OP, and I'll remove mine once it is back up. I just saw the opportunity and went with it.

Naw, I didn't mean the Star Wars reference (which I actually find amusing). I'm not totally free of guilt from the phenomenon so I'm not going to point any fingers, but it just seems to me there's been a lot of... nastiness on the forums lately that I don't remember being there when I first joined (hopefully this isn't just a byproduct of my imagination).

Anyway, it's back up.
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Cthulhu

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2010, 09:27:38 pm »

I remember reading about a similar cycle.  I can't remember all it said, but basically a country is under a tyrannical rule; there's a spiritual/cultural revolution which spurs a military revolution; in the wake of the revolution the country enacts new laws that allow for a thriving economy; after a while the country's wealth leads to decadence and a sense of entitlement; the people, having realized they can simply vote for whoever gives them the nicest things, willingly let the yoke slip back around their neck; the state collapses and tyranny resumes

That wasn't exactly what it was, I know I'm missing several steps, but it's got the basics.
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Muz

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2010, 10:50:41 pm »

There's something very wrong about American capitalism. You need money for literally everything - safety, food, (clean) water, clean air, education, health care (the right to live).

I'm also not so fond of money making more money. Usury for one thing. Investments are fine.. but letting someone borrow money then charging them excess charges for borrowing money doesn't sound good. You don't actually contribute to society, you're just making money off someone's misery. I find it a little like drugs.. you give them a bit, they get addicted to spending, you let them spend more and more, increasing the credit limit.. then once you think they can barely pay it off, you sell off all their stuff and take the money.

Enron's also a strong example about how American capitalism fails. It started well enough, but as time went by, everyone got more greedy. There are so many people along the way who should've stopped the chaos.. banks.. accounting firms.. state/federal government.. but nobody lifted a finger. WTF? Another two Enron scenarios, and the economy would collapse on itself.

I dunno.. capitalism itself isn't bad. But once you start worshipping money, there's a few problems there. I think America would do well to follow every other country's economic system, having a nice balance between capitalism and socialism. Obama seems to be heading that way. I think it'd help America survive in the long term, assuming they don't collapse in the short term.
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The Architect

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2010, 11:31:33 pm »

the people, having realized they can simply vote for whoever gives them the nicest things, willingly let the yoke slip back around their neck

That's America in essense. Vote for what gives me what I want right now! Or the adverse side "I can't make a difference anyway (quite true) so I won't vote, or I'll vote for a major candidate so I don't lose"

Typo Edit
« Last Edit: January 15, 2010, 06:02:42 am by The Architect »
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sonerohi

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2010, 11:38:46 pm »

I think the government, or another large business with solid morals, needs to start forcing some honesty out of corporations. I can't say that that would fix things, but once the plate is clean and even, you can safely set food on it. Any fixes now are setting a nice sandwich on a plate covered in filth and vomit.
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The Architect

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2010, 02:22:04 am »

That's exactly what is needed; however our government has long since passed the point of no return. The corrupt hold the power and pass it around amongst themselves, and even those with the best of intentions can't do anything about it. The ones that need to be accosted for their bad behavior are the ones with the power to make sure they aren't.

Money is power. You can make more money by being corrupt than honest once the government stops regulating things properly. Once the corrupt have made that money, they have the power to make sure no one else can stop them.

Some of this might right itself if we had the forward-thinking attitude of our forebears, but even the so-called poor live in a relatively luxurious and comfortable lifestyle now. There's no reason for the majority of people to be pissed. No matter what you may say, the people of the US enjoy a higher standard of living and more freedom than anyone else in the world. And unless you're a convicted felon or something of the kind, you can do as well as you want depending on your ingenuity and perserverance. Anyone can find and hold down a good job here if they take advantage of opportunity.
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Zironic

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2010, 02:31:52 am »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clash_of_Civilizations

written in 1996 - predicts current events closely
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KaelGotDwarves

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Re: The State of the Republic?
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2010, 05:09:24 am »

An even better book is "Jihad vs McWorld" which prior to 9/11, in 1995, basically predicted 9/11 was going to happen, and once it did happen,the author had a revised edition with an "I told you so" intro.

It makes an interesting case that the diametrically opposed globalization/capitalization of society and the religious/tribal/ethnocentric/patriotic fundamentalism are in fact both enemies of democracy and freedom. And we need to watch ourselves lest we lose our basic freedoms due to one or the other.

Or in the case of 9/11 and the ensuing panic/patriot act, both.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2010, 05:22:43 am by KaelGotDwarves »
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