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Author Topic: [DAY 4]Aztec Mafia[SPANIARD WIN]  (Read 38385 times)

Vector

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #330 on: February 02, 2010, 09:23:18 pm »

Bleh.  I'm pretty sure that Rolan is town, but I have severe doubts of Pandarsenic.  He's been sidelining through this entire game.

Extension until Pandarsenic gets back.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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Org

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #331 on: February 02, 2010, 09:24:25 pm »

? Is he gone?
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Vector

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #332 on: February 02, 2010, 09:25:07 pm »

...

Yes.  He posted such in his "possibility of absence" thread.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Org

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #333 on: February 02, 2010, 09:25:39 pm »

Well, he hasn't said that in here.
Not my problem.

But let us see if we get more votes.
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webadict

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #334 on: February 02, 2010, 09:28:49 pm »

Well, he hasn't said that in here.
Not my problem.

But let us see if we get more votes.
He'll be back either tomorrow or the next Day, Org. Extension.

Why is Zai stabbed twice?
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Vector

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #335 on: February 02, 2010, 09:31:42 pm »

So, JaaSwB got scumkilled, and we have Zaix2/Rooster dead.

That means that we've got two priests and an artifact going; my guess is that Zai got sac'd and artifacted.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Rolan7

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #336 on: February 02, 2010, 09:51:24 pm »

I'm actually pretty sure we have a high priest plus the new artifact bearer, not two priests.

I worked out the numbers, and we have good odds if we claim and then kill all non-priests, but I think we're better off killing another two suspects (one lynch, sacrifice the person with the second-most votes).  Much safer if the scum really is a Cortes.  No idea what the odds of that are, this is my second forum mafia (including BM8, still in progress!).

It does appear that the Cortes cannot be overwhelmed by multiple sacrifices, but... hm...
Can the artifact bearer nightkill the Cortes?
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Vector

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #337 on: February 02, 2010, 09:55:00 pm »

I'm actually pretty sure we have a high priest plus the new artifact bearer, not two priests.

I worked out the numbers, and we have good odds if we claim and then kill all non-priests, but I think we're better off killing another two suspects (one lynch, sacrifice the person with the second-most votes).  Much safer if the scum really is a Cortes.  No idea what the odds of that are, this is my second forum mafia (including BM8, still in progress!).

It does appear that the Cortes cannot be overwhelmed by multiple sacrifices, but... hm...
Can the artifact bearer nightkill the Cortes?

Whoops, miscomputed.  Sorry.  And yes, I agree with a massclaim now, but only after scumhunting a bit more.

(Also, go sign up for more games >_>)
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #338 on: February 02, 2010, 09:55:56 pm »

Nope.
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Rolan7

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #339 on: February 02, 2010, 11:28:38 pm »

What happens if we mass claim:
Assume 1 high priest, 1 aztec artifact bearer, 1 Cortes, 3 tribesmen (no tax collector)
Cortes claims to be a tribesman of course, so we see 4 "tribesmen".
Even though we have 1 lynch plus 3 nightkills, we can't just kill off all 4 "tribesmen" because Cortes is NK immune and will kill the priest who finds him.

Plan 3-kill: Claim, then choose the three most suspicious "tribesmen".  Lynch one, assign one to the artifact bearer, and one to the high priest.
25% chance: Scum lynched, we win.
50% chance: Attempted sacrifice on Cortes, now we know who he is and have at least two town left to lynch him (since he will have NK'd someone, probably the priest not targeting him).  We win.
25% chance: We lose.
So, 75% straight chance of success, assuming we pick at absolute random.

Plan 2-kill: Claim, lynch one, then have the High Priest kill someone (since they have to)
25% chance: Scum lynched, we win.
25% chance: High Priest hits Cortes and dies, lynch and we win.
50% chance: Scum NKs, probably High Priest.  Left with 1 scum and 3 town, one of whom is artifact bearer.
Safer.  Only 50% straight chance of instant win, but no 25% chance of losing.

Plan no-lynch: Claim, no lynch, assign someone to Priest and to Artifact Bearer.
50% chance: One of our NKers hits the Cortes, the other gets NK'd, left with Cortes + 2 tribesmen, we win.
50% chance: 1 scum and 3 town, same as previous plan except the scum chooses which of our power roles get to live.

Summary: Do we go for the 75% chance of an instant win, with the risk that we find the Cortes *least* scummy of four people?  I will be one of those four people, by the way.  Or do we play it safe with Plan 2-kill?  Plan 2-kill seems marginally better than plan no-lynch.

After all this, I'm satisfied that a mass-claim is a decent, perhaps good, idea.
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This one didn't want to be who they was. On the Surface – it was a dull, unconsidered sadness. But everything changed. Which implied everything could change.

ExKirby

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #340 on: February 03, 2010, 02:44:02 am »

Plan two seems like a decent one. I'm game, seeing as I already roleclaimed Townie.
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webadict

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #341 on: February 03, 2010, 08:36:37 am »

Well, I'll claim too:

I'm a Taxer. I got JaaSwB Commoner and ExKirby Commoner.

Also... I got the Artifact last Night. I thought Zai was scum, so that's why he was stabbed ONCE.

So, Vigilante Cop is dead tonight.
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Rolan7

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #342 on: February 03, 2010, 08:50:39 am »

They may prefer to kill the priest, particularly if they're a Cortes (show up as noble to investigations).

As I hinted before, I am a tribesman and thus one of the 4 suspects.
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She/they
No justice: no peace.
Quote from: Fallen London, one Unthinkable Hope
This one didn't want to be who they was. On the Surface – it was a dull, unconsidered sadness. But everything changed. Which implied everything could change.

Vector

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #343 on: February 03, 2010, 09:36:17 am »

I'm also a taxer.  Both nights, I was roleblocked (I think): N1 I passed out, and N2, I couldn't find my money bag.  Additionally, I'm going to suggest lynching Pandarsenic, since with Webadict's claim that clears everyone in my opinion but Pandar and MagmaDeath.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

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pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

Pandarsenic

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Re: [DAY 3]Aztec Mafia
« Reply #344 on: February 03, 2010, 08:20:05 pm »

Hey, bounced on briefly between classes, skimmed a couple posts in each thread, saw people here being retarded.

I'm a double-kill-y priest (Messages won't load so I'm typing this up while I wait for that).

I killed Neruz first night, and last night I dropped both Rooster & Zai (gaining the power to tax, apparently).

PPE: Ritual Priest, there we go.
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