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[Cheddarius]

Well, that equation doesn't seem to work, if I'm not mistaken.
Clearly one letter has a 2/12 chance of hitting Santa/helper, right? Because there are two santa/helpers and 12 people total. So, 1/6th.

But your equation gives 2/11-1, or 1/5 chance of hitting. So that doesn't work.

[RedWarrior0]

There are 12 players. If you send a letter, you are probably not Santa. Thus the 11. And I did get the equation wrong. All three times.

[Cheddarius]

Ah, yes! You would have 2 santas of 11 possible targets... well, my numbers should be similar, just with 11s instead if 12s.
Here is my reasoning for my formula:
You have 11 possible targets. Two are grinches. The chance that you will not hit either grinch with any given letter is nine out of eleven. As you know, the chance of two events coinciding is the chances multiplied - for example, the chance of rolling a three and then a five is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. Therefore, the chance that you will not hit either grinch with two letters is nine elevenths squared, with three letters, cubed, etc. So, ((9/11)^n)
Now, the chances of not hitting either Santa or his helper are the same, since there are two santa/helpers and two grinches. The chance of hitting either santa or his helper are one minus this chance. So, (1-((9/11)^n)).
And chance 3 is those multiplied together. Should be around 4 or so.

[RedWarrior0]

Another flaw: you seem to include the possibility that someone would send letters to the same person multiple times.

[Cheddarius]

Eh? How so? Each power is a different person, assuming (falsely of course, but this is only theoretical) that everyone has an equal chance of being a grinch or santa.

My later numbers are definitely wrong, though, since with 11 letters you're bound to have chance 3 be 0. I'll look into that.

Er, maybe we should continue this somewhere else to reduce spam or something...

[Cheddarius]

New thread at http://www.bay12games.com/forum/index.php?topic=47059.0 .

Dak, sorry for putting this much non-Mafia stuff on here.

[Pandarsenic]

Wait, did the day just end?

[dakarian]

My deadlines are soft:  The day ends when I write the post saying so, even if it's past deadline.

Final Vote Count:
RandomNumberGenerator[2]: Akigagak, Leafsnail
Mephansteras[1]: Mr.Person
Sonearage[1]: Webadict,
RedWarrior0[1]: Zai
Akigagak[2]: RedWarrior0, Mephansteras,
Leafsnail[2]: RandomNumberGenerator, Pandarsenic

Not Voting: Cheddarius, Sonearage, Kashyyk,

No requests to extend has been made.  A tie is reached.  No one was lynched this day.

It is now night.  Night roles, wait for instructions.

[dakarian]

It's Christmas Time! It's Christmas Time!

YAYYYY!!!

well... perhaps not a YAY!   RandomNumberGenerator, Mall Santa, passed away last night.  The poor thing.


Survivors:

Mr.Person
Zai
Cheddarius
Pandarsenic
Kashyyk
Webadict
Mephansteras
RedWarrior0
Sonearage
Leafsnail
Akigagak
 

Deadline: Tuesday, 9pm EST

[webadict]

Okay, so, first business: Who was stolen from?
Second off, I think we should claim who sent us messages and whom we sent them to.
Third, should we have Santa and his helper claim now or wait?

[Mr.Person]

Yeah, we should give everyone a chance to state if they got anything stolen from them before saying anything else.

[RandomNumberGenerator]

*Cough*

Keep... *Cough* Christmas Spirit... Alive...

[CobaltKobold]

*drops a sack of coin on RNG, carts away*

[Pandarsenic]

I sent no letters. I'll explain why if you wish.

[Akigagak]

Okay, so, first business: Who was stolen from?

Nobody, we get our presents tonight.