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[Sonearage]

Damn, Forgot colours
Unvote Kashyyk but point the FoS at him, why are you not replying?

[RandomNumberGenerator]

Not really. Leaf basically said "OMG! You changed strategy from anti-town to meta! You never meta'ed before!" and I was pointing out that I had, in fact, mentioned Wizard Duel prior in the thread.

Again with the not addressing me directly.  Whenever you talk to me, you criticise my strategy.  If you're answering someone elses question, you invoke a single game of meta, even though you've never actually played with me as scum.  It looks like you're still blitzing me with "reasons" while not caring whether or not I am scum.

Hey, he asked me the question, so I was replying to him. Why would I reply to you when someone else asked me the question? That makes no sense to me.

As far as the reason thing... Yes, I have reasons for why I think you're scum. And IMO, that's a good thing. Anything I throw at you, you just circumvent with baseless accusations toward me. Oh hey look, I believe that is a reason I believe you're scum that doesn't have anything to do with your strategy or plans. I've mentioned it before, as well. It's a very common thing for scum to do; since scum knows people are town, they lack any good reasons why someone might be scum and instead try to make up arguments that sound good.

I'm feeling scumvibes from Leafsnail, but nothing definite.

Enough, though, to unvote anyone I'm voting for and vote for Leafsnail.

Any real reasons?

Oh hey, it looks like you care about reasons, too. As long as I'm not the one talking about them. So what, are you a hypocrite and scum?

[webadict]

Damn, Forgot colours
Unvote Kashyyk but point the FoS at him, why are you not replying?

Now why did you do that, sonearage?

[Mephansteras]

To answer your question, Cheddarius, my name has so many anagrams because it is a long name with many common letters in it.

At this point, though, we should start focusing more on how people are reacting to thing and we should prod anyone who has been lurking so far.

FOS on Leafsnail and RandomNumberGenerator. Both have been acting a bit suspiciously, but I'm not convinced this isn't just a town fight so far.

Akigagak, why are you fishing for Cheddarius' role?

Wait, what? How are they suspicious? What have they done that's suspicious? What do you think of them?

Unvote, vote Meph. You cannot jump in and throw blame around with no reasoning. You also cannot go around without stating YOUR opinions. Try again.

Sorry, I was in a bit of a hurry when I posted that.

I find Leafsnail suspicious because his plan was deeply flawed and the more we poked at it the more bad ideas he threw at us (like wanting Santa to claim). It could have been innocent, or he could be scum trying to prevent the town from getting any power roles and prevent Scrooge from becoming an SK (the worst option for the scum that he could become).

RandomNumberGenerator has been pushing at him pretty hard, which isn't scummy by itself but could be a sign that he's scum trying to go for an easily explainable lynch on a townie who's slipped up.

It's also possible that they're both town and Leaf just doesn't have a good grasp on the rules yet. But I don't want to make the mistake that the town did in Paranormal 12 and just forget the two of them because they got in a big fight. That's how Neruz slipped by everyone after day 1. He fought forsaken to the point where no one seriously considered lynching either of them because everyone was too tired of listening to the arguments.

So, FOS of both of them. I'm watching them carefully to see if I can figure out what's actually going on, but I'm not confident which of them (if either) is scum yet.

[dakarian]

Apologies, but I realize there's a bit in the rules I need to specify:

- Santa can send letters to others.

- During santa's Trip, he'll also decide to give himself a present (always a 1-shot) or coal.  Note he cannot USE that present himself.  The grinches will see (or steal) what santa gives to himself.

[Kashyyk]

Now why did you do that, sonearage?

I'm presuming it's because she's only just remembered that she's still voting for me. But since I've been absent the last few days it would have been understandable to keep the vote on me (not that it would have done anything...)

Also, unvote Sonearage.

[RedWarrior0]

Considering it, the real reason is RL. And I can escape some of the demands from that easily enough. You no longer need a replacement.

[dakarian]

Note that no one is required to even look at this thread until Monday.  Thus if anyone's RL issues will keep them away until then then have no worries. 

For now I'll mark you as 'here' again.

[RandomNumberGenerator]

Is this still going on?

[dakarian]

It is, though it seems many have thought Monday was still the weekend.

I'll allow until midnight tonight.  Send your letters, send your votes, and finish up.

[webadict]

... Maybe a vote count?

[Cheddarius]

Hmmm, someone should run the numbers on letter-sending risk/reward.
There are 2 Grinches, 1 Helper, 1 Santa, and 1 Scrooge.
2 good recipients and two bad, that is. 8 other. Out of 12.
Chance 1 = chance of contacting Santa or his helper. Calculated by one minus the chance of not contacting santa with any letter - one sixth (proportion of santas) to the power of the number of letters.
Chance 2 = chance of not contacting a grinch: one minus chance 1. Calculated by one sixth to the power of the number of letters.
Chance 3 = chance of contacting Santa but not the grinch - calculated by chance 1 times chance 2.
Chance 2 is not included because it's just one minus chance 1.
Letters    Chance 1   Chance 3
0            0.0000      0
1            0.1667      0.1389
2            0.3056      0.2122
3            0.4213      0.2438
4            0.5177      0.2497 - highest chance of getting "clean" ability
5            0.5981      0.2404
6            0.6651      0.2227
7            0.7209      0.2012
8            0.7674      0.1785
9            0.8062      0.1562
10          0.8385      0.1354
11           0.8654     0.1165

Dak, if I'm breaking the rules, sorry - I'm not suggesting that this be the main aspect of sending letters, just providing some information to those who would like to supplement their mainly scumhunting-based choices.

[RedWarrior0]

Maths seem broken.

n letters have a chance of hitting Santa or the helper equal to n / (11! - (11-n)!), if I figured it out right. Then with that you can find Chances 2 & 3.

[RedWarrior0]

EBWOP: Got the equation wrong. Should be n((11-n)!) / 11!

[RedWarrior0]

Got it wrong still

I'll try again. Your nth letter has a 2/(11-n) chance of hitting Santa or the helper. Add the chances and it should be right.