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Author Topic: Let's Play Wall Street Raider  (Read 28162 times)

Goron

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #45 on: December 17, 2009, 08:46:50 pm »
Ok, so we left off with a purchase of 5% of AVTO (Avtovaz Motors) in Q1 2010.
The stock dropped.
The start of Q2 2010 rolls around.

After some backroom deliberations, we decided to buy in to the company even more- I suppose we could say we are 'pot committed'

The current stock price is 44.05
We bought our previous shares (5 million of em, 5%) at ~73 each for a total of 377.5m USD.
With the new price at 44.05 we can buy an additional 5% for a mere 220m USD.
Note, we only have 124.17m in cash. BUT, our credit line grants us an extra 344m at the moment. Should AVTO go down further, our credit will drop as well.
To avoid facing a painful margin call, I will only buy an additional 5% of AVTO (despite the ability to afford more).
Ready?
K here we goooooooooo:
Spoiler: the buy (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: The loan warning (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: The confirmation (click to show/hide)

Our situation immediately following the buy:
Spoiler: Financial Statement (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Portfolio (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Tax Info (click to show/hide)

I wait a quarter

Spoiler: ... (click to show/hide)
...
Spoiler: *Gets a rope* (click to show/hide)
...
Spoiler: *Ties a noose* (click to show/hide)



Spoiler: AVTO Quarterly Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Research Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Finance Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO at a glance (click to show/hide)

Spoiler: Our Financial Statement (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Portfolio (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Tax Info (click to show/hide)

Well F**k.

I advise we stay in. weather the storm. To sell now would leave us at 1/5 our starting position (about 200m cash with 100m debt).

There could be some benefit to selling a small amount, to avoid running out of credit should the stock drop even more- but honestly... I think we should stay in as we are... The company has potential. I think its being mismanaged. It is in a very strong financial situation- and it can surely weather this storm- The question is, can we hold on long enough for it to turn around?

(I am not going to bother getting research data on the software companies at the moment, it will be obsolete by the time we have the funds to act on them)

EDIT: You guys are driving me to drink, I am pounding PBRs here- its sad to see this money go *poof*
« Last Edit: December 17, 2009, 08:48:51 pm by Goron »
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zchris13

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #46 on: December 17, 2009, 09:16:54 pm »
Just chill.  I agree with the analysts.
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Goron

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #47 on: December 17, 2009, 11:18:51 pm »
I wait another quarter

Spoiler: Fed action (click to show/hide)

Spoiler: Interesting- but irrelevant- news (click to show/hide)
But, take notice of our financials... or available credit is down to 3.78 million. AVTO is down to 21.59
If it drops much further we will be facing a lot of trouble.
You can also see our not-so-impressive net worth of 100 million (we started at 500m, in case you forgot...)

Spoiler: A mid-quarter peek at AVTO (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: The Research Report from above, expanded (click to show/hide)
This is good news, but the analyst guesstimate is that it will reach a peak of 40. We paid over 70 for our fist buy in... poo  :-\




Let's see how things are...

Spoiler: AVTO Quarterly Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Research Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Financial Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO at a glance (click to show/hide)

Spoiler: Our Financial Statement (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Portfolio (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Tax Info (click to show/hide)

AVTO is coming back up.
It's at 24.93 and expected to hit ~40.

We bought our 1st 5% at over 70, and our 2nd 5% at over 40.
So even if it peaks at 40, we will still be at a major loss.

I advise we hold in.
But again, the options exist to pull out now with all, or some.
We do not have the finances available to buy in further.
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Spartan 117

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #48 on: December 18, 2009, 10:10:43 am »
Let's wait. Perhaps mister Analyst will be wrong and it'll go past 40.
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Quote from: Fossaman on April 02, 2010, 10:25:38 pm
Well, you know how if you take your thumb and forefinger and hold them up to your eye, you can make it look like you're squishing someone's head? It's like that, only for real.
Quote from: kilakan on July 01, 2010, 01:01:00 pm
"Sometimes being a dwarf has it's advantages, KNEE-CAPPING TIME!"

Goron

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #49 on: December 18, 2009, 01:19:28 pm »


I wait another quarter



Let's see how things are...

Spoiler: AVTO Quarterly (Year-End) Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Research Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Financial Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO at a glance (click to show/hide)

Spoiler: Our Financial Statement (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Portfolio (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Tax Info (click to show/hide)

AVTO is sitting still.
It's at 22.21 but analysts are shouting Sell Sell Sell!

I advise we hold in.
But again, the options exist to pull out now with all or some.
We do not have the finances available to buy in further.
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mainiac

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #50 on: December 18, 2009, 01:33:44 pm »
What are those analysts smoking?  The companies balance sheet is great and equity is above market cap.  It's too bad you don't have any more money, because I would say buy a controlling stake.  Not having enough money to pursue that strategy, I'm not too sure whether to hold or fold.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
--------------
[CAN_INTERNET]
[PREFSTRING:google]
"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
Quote from: misko27 on October 20, 2016, 10:52:51 pm
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

Goron

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #51 on: December 18, 2009, 01:40:07 pm »
The whole industry is down. Profitability is low in all companies.
Thats what keeping the stock down (low, or even negative return on assets).
AVTO is also growing during a time when the industry is shrinking.
'Thats why I think staying in will benefit us greatly once the industry turns around.

Of course, one could argue that if we sellout now, we could recoup our losses in the time it will take for the industry to turn around:-/
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mainiac

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #52 on: December 18, 2009, 01:44:01 pm »
If you want to keep your stake but are afraid of credit drying up, you might want to buy a derivative.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
--------------
[CAN_INTERNET]
[PREFSTRING:google]
"Don't tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I will tell you what you value"
« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
Quote from: misko27 on October 20, 2016, 10:52:51 pm
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.

andrea

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #53 on: December 18, 2009, 02:07:22 pm »
I knew we had to wait to buy the second 5%... now it would have been 10%, which would give us some control!

I say we stay. When industry is strong, but stocks are low, it is time to buy, buy buy.
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Goron

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #54 on: December 18, 2009, 02:12:56 pm »
Quote from: andrea on December 18, 2009, 02:07:22 pm
I knew we had to wait to buy the second 5%... now it would have been 10%, which would give us some control!

I say we stay. When industry is strong, but stocks are low, it is time to buy, buy buy.
Yeah... it woulda been nice to buy in right now rather than before, eh?
oh well... live and learn

(also, I was wrong, you need 20% for control, not 15- but, thats doesnt matter with AVTO because General Motors owns like 42% of the company, so we would need 43% for control)
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Spartan 117

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #55 on: December 18, 2009, 02:28:41 pm »
We can weather the storm. If we wait 'till the industry bounces back we can get a profit without being wimpy.
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Quote from: Fossaman on April 02, 2010, 10:25:38 pm
Well, you know how if you take your thumb and forefinger and hold them up to your eye, you can make it look like you're squishing someone's head? It's like that, only for real.
Quote from: kilakan on July 01, 2010, 01:01:00 pm
"Sometimes being a dwarf has it's advantages, KNEE-CAPPING TIME!"

Goron

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #56 on: December 19, 2009, 02:08:14 pm »


I wait another quarter

Spoiler: Things start looking bleak early January (click to show/hide)
Our credit line is shot.
We have 0.85m cash, but our cost of living is like a mil a year, - so this won't last us long.
We need AVTO to come up so we get some more credit.


Spoiler: But there is good news (click to show/hide)
(Jan 12) just a few days after discovering we have no credit line, I also notice AVTO's supposedly on the rise. To what mark? Don't know yet. Hopefully high, though.


Spoiler: Almost out of January (click to show/hide)
We are worth less than 1/5 our starting position :-\

Spoiler: @#*!& (click to show/hide)
(Feb 10)
Well, at least we have some cash now, just over 19m. That will hold future us for a while, at least. I normally would have borrowed a couple mil when we had a credit line to keep this from happening, but oh well:-)




Let's see how things are...

Spoiler: AVTO Quarterly (Year-End) Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Research Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Financial Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO at a glance (click to show/hide)

Spoiler: Our Financial Statement (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Portfolio (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Tax Info (click to show/hide)

Well crap... Only option I can see is to stay in longer.
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Spartan 117

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #57 on: December 19, 2009, 03:32:05 pm »
Stay the course, brother.  :P
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Quote from: Fossaman on April 02, 2010, 10:25:38 pm
Well, you know how if you take your thumb and forefinger and hold them up to your eye, you can make it look like you're squishing someone's head? It's like that, only for real.
Quote from: kilakan on July 01, 2010, 01:01:00 pm
"Sometimes being a dwarf has it's advantages, KNEE-CAPPING TIME!"

Goron

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #58 on: December 19, 2009, 11:23:28 pm »
I wait another quarter

Spoiler: some mid-quarter events (click to show/hide)



Spoiler: AVTO Quarterly (Year-End) Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Research Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO Financial Report (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: AVTO at a glance (click to show/hide)

To keep things in perspective:
Spoiler: Auto-Europe Projection (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Auto-Europe Summary (click to show/hide)
AVTO is trying to exploit the industry situation right now. They are growing assets at 17% while many of the top companies are shrinking assets as high as 10%.
They are also investing heavily in R&D which hurts their return on assets ([/i]kind of[/i] profitability) but will help it int he long run.


Spoiler: Our Financial Statement (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Portfolio (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Our Tax Info (click to show/hide)


I suggest we stay in. Although the analysts say sell, I think this company can really go places (as soon as they drop their R&D budget to like 3%).
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zchris13

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Re: Let's Play Wall Street Raider
« Reply #59 on: December 19, 2009, 11:38:36 pm »
They are running the knife here, aren't they.
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