What is more interesting about DF is the kind of cultural development (monkey see, monkey do) that goes on amongst DF players. We start barely being able to feed seven dwarves through a winter to eyeing each others megaprojects, populating our videogaming tool boxes with new ideas of how to go about things and how to establish our greatness, although this is perhaps inevitable given a sandbox of epic magnitude and the nature of humanity.
You're right, it's very fascinating, and there are more and more researchers who look at communities that develop alongside these games.
As interesting as it is, the main problem I see with modeling the evolution of anything is the same as how some psychologists go about doing experiments - they "know" the answer already and then design an experiment that can ONLY prove that answer. In our case, whatever evolutionary path we model will only look legitimate if it winds up at the present.
I think this is best accomplished by providing space for competing theories. What's most interesting about social modeling is that we've barely scratched the surface of defining and mapping out processes, which is why you can have fundamentally different explanations of why societies change, why historical events occur or even what they are. An interesting example, to me at least, is the Boserup/Malthus debate over carrying capacity and agricultural development. You could look at both systems of describing demographic pressures on a population (Easily conceived in a DF world), map out the functions, and then run the thing to see which better tracks to known historical realities. The same could be done with testing Marxist, World Historical, socio-environmental or other theoretical approaches.
I'm kind of rambling at this point, but a couple more things I wanted to mention. First, this game with an, eg, bronze age mod could be great for getting people interested in anthropology. I remember playing sim life (anyone remember that?), and that encouraging me in my biological interests.
DF has already increased my understanding of materials and alloys and reinforced the importance of administrative cost in the creation of structures, items, et cetera. Imagine if instead of Dwarves you had a host of different cultures, all early Bronze Age (with a little iron thrown in there), with different trade goods and available resources... Heck, with a game like that, I might finally, actually be able to tell the difference between the Myceneaens, Achaeans, Ionians, Dorians, Minoans, et cetera.
I think, rather than building a set "Cultural Pattern" it would be more interesting to see culture as emergent, too. Obviously, if your humans are dropped on a steppe with low rainfall, they're not going to be farmers. And, after growing up riding horses all their lives and hunting animals, they'll make pretty good light cavalry. By the same vein, they'll be terribly poorly equipped to maintain and create large waterworks, even if they manage to capture some irrigated farmland from their southern neighbors. Maybe they're just better off trading their horses for silk. That's the history of China and Central Asia in a nutshell (And grossly oversimplified and only focusing on one aspect).