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Author Topic: Beginner's Mafia 4: End - Winter Wonderland  (Read 54413 times)

Vector

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #315 on: November 12, 2009, 09:04:19 am »

MagmaDeath, please tell us what you think about the current situation.
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Pandarsenic

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #316 on: November 12, 2009, 09:39:53 am »

As an IC in general, you should try to determine who is scum today but you should no-lynch since it's mislynch-and-lose but not lynch-or-lose. Webby can provide more details, I would imagine. I'm just throwing that out there now.
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SirBayer

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #317 on: November 12, 2009, 01:20:28 pm »

True. If we kill someone at this point, there're two Mafia left... they kill one person, game's over. However, this does mean that we've got a much better chance of lynching appropriately.

MagmaDeath took over for Laetificious (or however the heck you spell that), right?

Sidenote: Do we think that scum bandwagoned Org or no? AN specifically avoiding doing that seems suspect to me, on a very minor level.
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MagmaDeath

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #318 on: November 12, 2009, 02:39:59 pm »

CobaltKobold is the town. He is really the one who is doing most of the scum hunting, and I suspect he will be the next target of the mafia due to this fact.
 
tehstefan is lurking a ton. This could make him scum, or just a stratigic lurker.
 
Apostolic Nililist is another lurker, though it seems most people suspect him of being scum.
 
SirBayer could have bandwagoned onto Org, though I suspect he actually though Org was Scum.
 
Vector on the other hand is Scum. He would have died a while ago if he was not. He is experienced enough to realise that by not killing anyone, he would get rid of most of the suspision upon him. He will probably defend himself by saying the "Docter" which may or may not exist protected him, which I see as rather unlikely. We may not even have a docter, and the scum might just be using a non-existent one to clear themselves of suspision. If we did have a docter, they probaby would have protected CobaltKobold instead of Vector, especialy after Apostolic Nililst came out and said he was the most Pro-Town of all of us.
 
And yes I did replace Laetificious.
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Vector

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #319 on: November 12, 2009, 03:09:44 pm »

Hi there, Magma-man.  You seem to be pretty shaken that I'm not dead yet.  Also, nice OMGUS, scumboy.  I'm glad to see that you're trying to get a townie lynched at mylo.

Vector on the other hand is Scum. He would have died a while ago if he was not. He is experienced enough to realise that by not killing anyone, he would get rid of most of the suspision upon him. He will probably defend himself by saying the "Docter" which may or may not exist protected him, which I see as rather unlikely. We may not even have a docter, and the scum might just be using a non-existent one to clear themselves of suspision. If we did have a docter, they probaby would have protected CobaltKobold instead of Vector, especialy after Apostolic Nililst came out and said he was the most Pro-Town of all of us.

That's an interesting argument, but there's some things you seem to have not quite picked up on.  First off, "let's kill Vector because he's still alive" is really shitty reasoning, unless by Vector you mean Webadict.  Last time I checked, I have more of a reputation for lynching confirmed townies than I do for being particularly good at Mafia.

Further, what you're telling me is that I'm experienced enough that the scum would want me dead, but the doctor wouldn't want to protect me.  That's fairly illogical, unless the doctor hates me for some reason... and I can't think of anything in particular I've done, other than bitching at Apostolic Nihilist a lot.

Then there's the thing about protecting CobaltKobold.  As you say, "Most people suspect Apostolic Nihilist is scum."  Apostolic Nihilist is the one who came out and declared CobaltKobold super-townish.  The theoretical doctor's got to be a total moron if he's protecting CobaltKobold based mostly on the words of a scumbucket.  Now, I'm not saying that a doctor would or wouldn't protect me--frankly, I don't know.  I'm just saying that your reasoning is so full of holes it could be used as a whiffle ball.

Finally... how would forgoing a nightkill clear me of suspicion?  Wouldn't that just mean I was really, really stupid scum?


Can you point to anything I've done, other than not being a corpse?
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MagmaDeath

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #320 on: November 12, 2009, 04:38:26 pm »

The simple fact that you are alive really makes you likely to be scum. You either are extremely lucky about the theoretical doctor, or you are scum. Apostolic Nililist is probably not Scum, all we really have against him is the fact that he was lurking.
Right, so I figure I'll try analyzing everyone since I just realized I haven't been contributing much in this mafia. I've organized them into priorities, roughly.

Vector - He's helpful and furthermore acting extremely pro-town. This is hardly good, as most people have stopped suspecting him. If he's scum, we're in a bad situation. A really bad situation, in fact. I'm not picking up any scumtells, but we need to watch him. If he isn't dead in a few days, we need to start suspecting him a lot more. He should be one of the scum's first targets.

Laetificus - He's somewhat helpful, but he's not pressing people much. His latest jab at tehstefan was his only such in the game. At the very least, he's not active lurking and most of his posts have content.

CobaltKobold - There is little to say -- he's active and pressing people. He probably has the most posts in this thread, actually, and since he's a new player I sort of doubt he's scum. Most scum would be hesitant to put themselves in the spotlight by making so many posts as they figure the more posts they make, the more people can analyze.

RedWarrior0 - Mostly silent. He seems like he's trying to slide under the radar, but it could just be his lack of posts. At the very least, the posts he makes do contain content, most of the time.

SirBayer - Bragging about how dangerous he'd be as scum?... er, anyways. He seems to not like asking questions and is indeed trying to stop or at least avoid them. He's acting suspicious. It's similar to how I acted when I was extremely new and town, so it could just be that. Either way, he's not helping town much as it stands.

tehstefan - He's out of town, so it's a bit difficult to question him. He's posting a decent amount, but he's levying no hefty suspicions. Altogether he seems to be a bit wishy-washy, but he seems to be improved from Beginner's Mafia 3, which is more than I can say about myself.

Org - Org is Org. Lurk. Lurk. Maybe an active lurk here and there. This means he's a great scum, but it also means he's really not dangerous at all. As long as we aren't stuck with him at Lylo, we can deal with him. At the very least though, we should try and stir him up, which is what I was trying to do earlier. He's also an expert at evading questions it would seem.
Org, tell me: Does SirBayer strike you as particularly scummy? He doesn't seem to care much for questions, which is mostly what this game is based around at this stage. He's trying to reassure us that he's town by reassuring himself that he's answering 'completely honestly'.
He was also grasping at straws to implicate me earlier, though I'm not sure why -- faulty reasoning is often present in scum's accusations.
His analyses seems quite accurate for me.
I am not retracting my vote.
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SirBayer

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #321 on: November 12, 2009, 07:17:15 pm »

I tend to agree with Panda here (although that may be just because I have an awful lot of trust in him).

I'm sorry for not making a more fleshy post, but today's been what you might call "a day." I may have to post substantially later than I'd like.
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tehstefan

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #322 on: November 12, 2009, 08:11:34 pm »

I'm not quite sure I agree with MagmaDeath's logic, but I can't deny that you being alive is suspicious. Right now I'm going to vote
 
No Lynch

Because it gives us a higher chance that we're going to lynch scum, but I'm highly suspicious of you still being alive here. Especially with all the attention you've grabbed, you should be a mafia target.
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MagmaDeath

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #323 on: November 12, 2009, 09:09:57 pm »

Let me try to make my logic a bit clearer.
Vector is alive
With all the attention he has been getting, and his "Scumhunting", he should have been targeted.
He either was luckily protected by a doctor,
or He could have chosen not to kill so he could claim that he was protected.
His scumbuddy could roleclaim doctor later, and get protected from that as well.
There could still be a doctor who "Got lucky" on the first day, then "Got lucky" again yesterday but I find that rather unlikely.
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Apostolic Nihilist

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #324 on: November 12, 2009, 09:40:24 pm »

Magma, Vector is a useful townie.
The only reason the Mafia would leave him alive would be if they thought they could convince town to lynch him.
I want to know if Vector is town or scum, but drawing attention to him is not the way to do it. If he continues being pro-town and no one is accusing him AND he isn't nightkilled, then yeah, he's definitely scum.
If town is conflicted and people are voting for him, he'll be left alive just for the WIFOM potential.
Right now you aren't helping things by spreading around WIFOM based around who the mafia targeted.

There's a good deal to be found, sometimes, but more often their targets are designed JUST to make us ask these questions that'll get us stuck in an endless loop of logic.
"Vector isn't dead and thus is mafia... unless that's what they want us to think!"
This is (mylo?), and we seriously can't have this sort of stuff messing with us.
People's judgment can easily be compromised and a mislynch at this stage will lose the game for us.

Vote No Lynch.

(At least statistically, our chances of hitting scum are higher.)
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SirBayer

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #325 on: November 12, 2009, 11:41:29 pm »

I'll go ahead and hammer the Nolynch. Hopefully everything will go well.
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dakarian

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #326 on: November 12, 2009, 11:56:29 pm »

Current Vote Count:

MagmaDeath[1]: Vector
Vector[1]: MagmaDeath
No Lynch[3]: tehstefan, Apostolic Nihilist, SirBayer

Not Voting: CobaltKobold

Request to end day will require:

one more voting No lynch, 4 requests and no objections

OR

All presently voting for anything to request with no objections.


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Vector

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #327 on: November 12, 2009, 11:58:56 pm »

Let me try to make my logic a bit clearer.
Vector is alive

With you on that one.

With all the attention he has been getting, and his "Scumhunting", he should have been targeted.

Not so much.

Take a look at Webadict in BM1.  We never targeted him.  We didn't do anything with him, even when he tried to eat me alive D2.  Why?  We thought he'd be the prime target for doctor protection, so we always went after the lower-level people.  Your logic is too black and white for this sort of game.

There could still be a doctor who "Got lucky" on the first day, then "Got lucky" again yesterday but I find that rather unlikely.

Becauuuuuuuuuse....

The simple fact that you are alive really makes you likely to be scum. You either are extremely lucky about the theoretical doctor, or you are scum. Apostolic Nililist is probably not Scum, all we really have against him is the fact that he was lurking.

ALL YOU HAVE AGAINST ME IS THAT I'M NOT DEAD.  BREATHING IS NOT IN FACT A SCUMTELL, DUMBASS.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Interesting.  Let's think about this a minute.

Your counterpart goes lurkylurkylurky and occasionally posts stuff.  Okay.  Now, what do you do?  You show up.  You rip posts from Apostolic Nihilist, and that's it... even though most people think he's scum.  No one else's judgment, really.  No further analyses.  Just "Hm, I guess I'll follow Apostolic Nihilist!  He looks like a smart guy."

"As such, I'll try to convince the town to lynch Vector at mylo.  Because I, too, want to be a smart guy."

Let's look at this.

OMGUS
Buddying/"emotional coordination"
Attacking players with no/little evidence
Lurking (Laetificus)
Pushing lynches at mylo
Using evidence incompletely to engender bias (Apost attacks SirBayer heavily; says he's scum.  Etc.  Didn't like that bit, did you?  Afraid of losing your scumbuddy?)
Lack of scumhunting (Laetificus)
Spreading WIFOM everywhere


It's a scumtell bargain sale! 

Wake up and smell the cypress.  You die tomorrow.



To everyone else, I ask that you consider what I've said.  I don't really feel that I can say any more, though if I can answer any questions or clarify any points of my argument, please let me know.

For now, however, unvote.

NoLynch.
Early day end.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

tehstefan

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #328 on: November 13, 2009, 12:04:37 am »

Yeah.

I vote to End day early

Hopefully that will mean, of course, that my absence from friday to at least sunday will not be as keenly felt. Warning you all.
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I suspect you've never tried doing many illegal things yet in your game. The second the CCS knows you're "active", they'll come down on you like the hammer of God.

CobaltKobold

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Re: Beginner's Mafia 4: Day 4 Who are the true murderers?
« Reply #329 on: November 13, 2009, 12:09:49 am »

Magma, Vector is a useful townie.
The only reason the Mafia would leave him alive would be if they thought they could convince town to lynch him.
Oh gods stop buddying on me Apostolic Nihilist. All of your arguments apply equally well to Vector as to me except that you decided to go "Hey let's get on this newer CK's side".

What do you have for me? "CK is scumhunting and being extremely protown. Therefore he is town."
what do you have against Vector? "Vector is scumhunting and being extremely protown. Therefore he is scum."

I have been after you all game, Apostolic Nihilist. You are digging your grave.

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