Well, let's see -- you have, what, 2000 points to spend at the start? First, let's decide on a primary industry; we'll invest heavily in that industry at the start to get the most value possible.
A Proficient-skill dwarf has an average value multiplier on his work of 3.1676 (from summing the percentages times their multipliers on
the wiki). So a Proficient mechanic will turn 300 dwarfbucks' worth of stone (base value: 3) into 3167 dwarfbucks' worth of mechanisms (base value: 10). Of course, he'll get more skilled as he works, pushing that number up a bit.
Out of 150 cost-2 meat, a Proficient cook making biscuits can make 75 meals, each having an average per-meal value of (value*multiplier)*number of inputs*multiplier for meal), or (2*3.1676)*2*3.1676, or about 40 dwarfbucks, if I understand meal value multipliers correctly. The total value from all those meals then would be about 6000 dwarfbucks. So, screw mechanisms for moneymaking.
40: 2x copper pick, for shelter
800: 50x dogs, for food (5 meat and 1 fat per 16 dwarfbucks, costing a bit more than the cheapest meats, but yields bones, skulls, and skins). 300 meat/fat is enough to feed 7 dwarves for a bit under 3 years, or 33 dwarves for 1 year.
35: One Proficient Cook, for rendering fat and making meals out of dogs
35: One Proficient Bone Carver, for making crafts out of the bones
20: 1x Rope Reed Rope, for a well.
70: One Proficient Negotiator / Appraiser, for getting good value from trading.
300: 100x Tower Cap Logs, for beds, barrels, and a cage to hold all your dogs so they don't breed.
300: 100x miscellaneous stone, for rewalling, workshops, the depot, mechanisms, etc.
That's 1700 points, which seems like a safe number, and more than enough to survive for quite some time. Any extra can be dedicated to getting more food for the cook to make into meals. Remember, your dwarves can drink water; they'll just work more slowly. But you have plenty of time to slaughter and cook all those dogs before the caravan arrives.
Hell, if you're willing to do the booze-cooking exploit, bring plump helmets instead of dogs, and brew them: instant 5x stack size multiplier on your meals.