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[Free Beer]

Oh, and as an afterthought, there's the fact that he spread WIFOM everywhere as a response to Leafsnail's roleclaim. Would a Townie really do that?

[Vector]

I read your WoT.

I think Pandarsenic is lazy town.  I think he's exhausted, and I think that if he were scum and kept Leafsnail alive--even if Leafsnail got a scum reading--he could have just offed you and coerced me into attacking Leafsnail with him.

You're the one who really stands to gain from Leafsnail dying.

I also like the part where you've suddenly started speaking more softly, as though that's going to convince me.  You're scum.


And, as an afterthought: There's the fact that he looked at an alternate reading as a response to Leafsnail's roleclaim.  Would anyone about to get shafted do something else?

[Free Beer]

I read your WoT.

I think Pandarsenic is lazy town.  I think he's exhausted, and I think that if he were scum and kept Leafsnail alive--even if Leafsnail got a scum reading--he could have just offed you and coerced me into attacking Leafsnail with him.

You're the one who really stands to gain from Leafsnail dying.

ONE OF US stands to gain from Leafsnail dying. Because Leafsnail was in a position to confirm us both.

I admit that NKing me was probably the better option for Pandarsenic. However, as noted in my WoT, if Pandarsenic is scum, then he's smart enough to recognize basic stuff like that.

More importantly, he's far less lazy than you think:

From how many games will I be banned for quoting my role PM?

Don't you dare fucking do that. >:[

I'm tempted to vote you for trying to blackmail us out of voting you.

We'll see properly if you're scum once I'm done with classes (around 4) and can actually catch up....

When you threatened to quote your role PM, Pandarsenic had a response within three minutes. He's been paying VERY close attention, but not posting anything.

And, as an afterthought: There's the fact that he looked at an alternate reading as a response to Leafsnail's roleclaim.  Would anyone about to get shafted do something else?

No. At the very least, I wouldn't openly attack him straight away, producing a WoT against the claimed Cop like he did.

After all, if I were truly a townie then there would still be that uncertainty that the claimed Cop really was a Cop.

[Pandarsenic]

All of the rest of my evidence is against Pandarsenic. Wanna hear it?

Let's start with how he bandwagoned: Every vote he made was second or more. Really, that's all the evidence I had on him prior to N2.

Then there's the the big wall of text I posted N4, which nobody actually read.

Finally, there's the explanation for killing Leafsnail: He knew you and I were polarized, and so the fact that we'd butt heads again was inevitable. He was going for a cross-vote. His behavior N5 has only been to encourage this behavior.

Oh, and as an afterthought, there's the fact that he spread WIFOM everywhere as a response to Leafsnail's roleclaim. Would a Townie really do that?

You want a first vote, you'll get one, Free Beer.

I was not spreading WIFOM, I was doing everything in my power to stop the town from MASSACRING ITSELF, which it nearly did. If Leafsnail had survived, I would have had a huge bias against him. However, the scum wasn't willing to gamble on my bias, clearly, as Leafy died. This is important: they wanted Leafy quiet.

Toony damns you after Leafsnail's claim. He says it's you and Leafsnail - he hopes to either discredit the cop and/or screen his scum partner.

Re: Not lazy
Very lazy, actually.

Because I'm a procrastinator and research/paper-writing is boring, mainly.

I'd rather check this than write a paper, but I can't commit to a lot of analysis because then I begin to feel guilty. When town was about to suicide was the only point where I started the SERIOUS PROCRASTINATION (which I still am doing, even though I shouldn't).


AND THE FINISHER.

There are unresolved issues. I don't think the day should end early. I think we need to talk these out.

Unvote. I also think we should lynch Pandarsenic first.

This is the most telling post. You gave yourself away by getting greedy. You weren't content to lynch your partner then lynch me; you realized that you'd be forced to NK Leafsnail or to depend on WIFOM. You got impatient. You wanted instant, guaranteed, canned victory. You decided to test the waters and pulled back when you couldn't get it to happen.

And now its biting you in the ass.

[Vector]

ONE OF US stands to gain from Leafsnail dying. Because Leafsnail was in a position to confirm us both.

I admit that NKing me was probably the better option for Pandarsenic. However, as noted in my WoT, if Pandarsenic is scum, then he's smart enough to recognize basic stuff like that.

More importantly, he's far less lazy than you think:

From how many games will I be banned for quoting my role PM?

Don't you dare fucking do that. >:[

I'm tempted to vote you for trying to blackmail us out of voting you.

We'll see properly if you're scum once I'm done with classes (around 4) and can actually catch up....

When you threatened to quote your role PM, Pandarsenic had a response within three minutes. He's been paying VERY close attention, but not posting anything.

And, as an afterthought: There's the fact that he looked at an alternate reading as a response to Leafsnail's roleclaim.  Would anyone about to get shafted do something else?

No. At the very least, I wouldn't openly attack him straight away, producing a WoT against the claimed Cop like he did.

After all, if I were truly a townie then there would still be that uncertainty that the claimed Cop really was a Cop.

1. If an option is better, then it is better.  If Pandarsenic is scum, then he's a total moron to have gotten himself into this position.  He'd need me and Leafsnail alive.  I've been saying through this entire game that I think you're some sort of asshole-town, with the statement that a couple of things you do are scummy.  He can't read my mind, and therefore the logical thing to do would be to off you and leave me and Leafsnail.

2. If Pandarsenic is that much of SmartScum, then he'd have immediately bussed Toony upon Leafsnail's claim--as he said in the beginning.  He could have easily picked me off.

3. Everyone in the entire game posted pretty much immediately, except for you and ToonyMan.  Even Org and Leafsnail, who hadn't been around much.

4.

Good morning, everyone. Nice of you to wait for me to wake up to vote me.

I'm a Vanilla Townie (What'd you expect?)

And I call bullshit on Leafsnail, because quite simply, I know myself to be town, so either one of the people he scanned is a Godfather, or as I believe, he's claiming Cop at Lylo so we execute the one mislynch that leads us to failure.

Uncertainty that the claimed cop was actually a cop... overruled by townie-ish paranoia.


It's also nice that you and ToonyMan start providing staged answers as to why the scum left you alive.

[Free Beer]

This is the most telling post. You gave yourself away by getting greedy. You weren't content to lynch your partner then lynch me; you realized that you'd be forced to NK Leafsnail or to depend on WIFOM. You got impatient. You wanted instant, guaranteed, canned victory. You decided to test the waters and pulled back when you couldn't get it to happen.

And now its biting you in the ass.

In case you didn't notice, Pandarsenic, ToonyMan's lynch was FORCED. He unvoted you and voted me, forcing a "him or me" scenario - the only way the town could have won was if one of the two of us were scum. Your logic completely falls apart, since it means that the scum wanted a ToonyMan bus.

That's why I was hesitant about ToonyMan: some of his posts (confusion about a no lynch, "killing Org is stupid") seemed a little off, and at the unanimous vote we can guarantee that one other scum was on him. The scum wanted a ToonyMan lynch, and I was doubtful. That's why I pushed for a lynch of you instead.

[Pandarsenic]

Toony become obvscum when I knew what to look for; hindsight is 20/20.

No scum would be willing to defend Toony when he started acting like that. Plenty of scum would try to get the townie killed.

[Free Beer]

1. If an option is better, then it is better.  If Pandarsenic is scum, then he's a total moron to have gotten himself into this position.  He'd need me and Leafsnail alive.  I've been saying through this entire game that I think you're some sort of asshole-town, with the statement that a couple of things you do are scummy.  He can't read my mind, and therefore the logical thing to do would be to off you and leave me and Leafsnail.

Or he could have realized that neither of us are martingales.

2. If Pandarsenic is that much of SmartScum, then he'd have immediately bussed Toony upon Leafsnail's claim--as he said in the beginning.  He could have easily picked me off.

Er, in case you didn't notice, if he is scum then he DID bus Toony. And Toony took the fall.

3. Everyone in the entire game posted pretty much immediately, except for you and ToonyMan.  Even Org and Leafsnail, who hadn't been around much.

And? We're talking about Pandarsenic. You're saying he's burdened by school and doesn't have enough time to check this thread. I provided evidence to the contrary. Are you saying it's coincidence?

Good morning, everyone. Nice of you to wait for me to wake up to vote me.

I'm a Vanilla Townie (What'd you expect?)

And I call bullshit on Leafsnail, because quite simply, I know myself to be town, so either one of the people he scanned is a Godfather, or as I believe, he's claiming Cop at Lylo so we execute the one mislynch that leads us to failure.

Uncertainty that the claimed cop was actually a cop... overruled by townie-ish paranoia.

It's also nice that you and ToonyMan start providing staged answers as to why the scum left you alive.

Townie-ish paranoia that turns into a full-on assault. With few posts from Leafsnail to change this behavior

If it were staged:
1. There wouldn't be that miscommunication.
2. I wouldn't have been attacking ToonyMan in the first place, when the initial leaning seemed to be toward Pandarsenic.

[Free Beer]

Toony become obvscum when I knew what to look for; hindsight is 20/20.

No scum would be willing to defend Toony when he started acting like that. Plenty of scum would try to get the townie killed.

He started acting like that after my interrogation, remember?

And I thought you were on page 7 or something? Caught up to page 30ish that quick, huh?

You're spewing BS, like ToonyMan. This might actually work, but it doesn't make you look good.

[Vector]

First off, what the hell is a martingale?  All I'm getting is something to do with stochastics and betting systems, and also part of a collaring system for an animal.


Also, I don't exactly see that as BS.

[Pandarsenic]

Dude, when you say I was, in fact, active, you have to look at the time.

MWF, 9-10 AM
MWF 11 AM -12 PM
MW 1-2 PM
M 3-4 PM
T TH 5-6;15 PM

That's my class schedule, not accounting for going out with friends, eating, or getting to and from classes.

Faux-edit: Free Beer, I use the largest posts-per-page. Page 7 out of 13, not out of 30whatever.

Faux-edit^2: I have no idea what martingale means, but I assume he means no good scum would rely on townie stupidity if (s)he has an alternatve.

[Free Beer]

First off, what the hell is a martingale?  All I'm getting is something to do with stochastics and betting systems, and also part of a collaring system for an animal.


Also, I don't exactly see that as BS.

Yeah, stochastics. Basically, a martingale is a function in which your best prediction for the future behavior of said function is its currently known value.

To put it in the context of Mafia, if I knew that that Free Beer suspected Pandarsenic N4 and assumed that he would keep suspecting Pandarsenic N5 no matter who was DK'd, then I'd be assuming that the underlying process which governs Free Beer's behavior is a martingale.

[Vector]

And what evidence do you have against ToonyMan?

What about this?  For some reason, it's no longer "Pandarsenic and ToonyMan are scum!  We shouldn't play into their hands, so we need to lynch Pandarsenic first."  No, it's "We've got Pandarsenic as scum!  Who knows about ToonyMan, even though I've been calling him scum the entire damned time!"


Also, if you really thought I was scum, you should have gotten me lynched.  You've been playing bad town.  You know, it's not that hard to get three votes on a person to make them sing.  You just left when I stopped being a good target for your fury.



Further, it has nothing to do with how stupid or smart we are.  It has to do with the situation itself.  We have to ask this question: "Independently of how smart the town is, how screwed over will I be by leaving x alive, with x's set of suspicions?"  The theory (semi-)rational actors says that a person with suspicions will act on those suspicions.  There's "If the town is smart, they may figure this out and I'll be screwed" vs. "No matter how intelligent the town is, I'm dead."  Clearly you always pick option a.



By the way, thanks for the definition.  That is pretty awesome, and now I suddenly want stochastics.

[Free Beer]

And what evidence do you have against ToonyMan?

What about this?  For some reason, it's no longer "Pandarsenic and ToonyMan are scum!  We shouldn't play into their hands, so we need to lynch Pandarsenic first."  No, it's "We've got Pandarsenic as scum!  Who knows about ToonyMan, even though I've been calling him scum the entire damned time!"

In case you hadn't noticed, the vote on ToonyMan became UNANIMOUS. As in, GUARANTEED AT LEAST ONE SCUM WAS ON HIM. The scum were OK with ToonyMan's death. And that's why I got hesitant. I've been over this twice now.

Also, if you really thought I was scum, you should have gotten me lynched.  You've been playing bad town.  You know, it's not that hard to get three votes on a person to make them sing.  You just left when I stopped being a good target for your fury.

Considering that, as noted, you've been the scummiest of us all, and yet nobody voted you for any significant length of time since N2, I'd say getting two others to vote with me is hard. I've explained why I stopped voting you. And I did FoS you at least once since then.

Further, it has nothing to do with how stupid or smart we are.  It has to do with the situation itself.  We have to ask this question: "Independently of how smart the town is, how screwed over will I be by leaving x alive, with x's set of suspicions?"  The theory (semi-)rational actors says that a person with suspicions will act on those suspicions.  There's "If the town is smart, they may figure this out and I'll be screwed" vs. "No matter how intelligent the town is, I'm dead."  Clearly you always pick option a.

During the Day, my thought process was "Free Beer dies, it's Pandarsenic. Vector dies, it's Leafsnail. Leafsnail dies, it's Vector. Pandarsenic dies, it's 50/50 between the other two." And then I realized that smart scum would know that this is precisely what my thought process would be. So I disregarded the DK information and went with my previous suspicions. I was banking on Pandarsenic banking on us switching votes around and getting into another argument. And I was right.

[Pandarsenic]

In case you hadn't noticed, the vote on ToonyMan became UNANIMOUS. As in, GUARANTEED AT LEAST ONE SCUM WAS ON HIM.

Your point?

The scum were OK with ToonyMan's death. And that's why I got hesitant. I've been over this twice now.

Or you had no choice. Then you got greedy.