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[RedWarrior0]

You can if you want. Two names (target and alternate) are enough, though.

[Diakron]

where are those numbers for us to crunch???

[RedWarrior0]

I'll get them up in a bit. I gotta do some homework, and I promise they'll be up tonight

[RedWarrior0]

Okay: the numbers I'll give you guys in public are the chances each person was killed. However, there is one slight problem: conveying protections. The final percentages will total to about 200, as there are 2 killer roles. They will soon be up.

[RedWarrior0]

So what if I lied and they aren't up?

Attacked chance (total of mafia kill chance + vig kill chance, as I don't quite know how to figure out protect chance, will not necessarily total 200):

Please note that all of the following are roundd to 2 decimal places.
Leafsnail, Vector, and major_sephiroth: 0%
Frelock: about 0.83% (somebody gave an alternate target)
Pandarsenic: 25.15%
ToonyMan: 112.55%
Mr.Person: 2.11%
Diakron: 5.88%


I'll send you all the personal info soon

[Leafsnail]

If ToonyMan is 112.55% dead...

[ToonyMan]

Why am I still alive, doctor protection?

[RedWarrior0]

Yes, doctor protection. It's an improper fraction caused by two killing roles existing.

[Vector]

Hey, I've got an idea.  Why don't we lynch ToonyMan?  If he dies, then the scum don't get a free kill, we get info, and we lose something we've already lost.  Sound good?

Unvote.
ToonyMan.

[Mr.Person]

Hey, I've got an idea.  Why don't we lynch ToonyMan?  If he dies, then the scum don't get a free kill, we get info, and we lose something we've already lost.  Sound good?

Unvote.
ToonyMan.

But not only is ToonyMan the most likely to be town, but he's also got a strong possibility of not being dead. We should lynch somebody who got a scum result.

[ToonyMan]

Are we going to share our percentages of being scum and town and stuff?

[Frelock]

Well, if we're scum, that would ruin our chances...

[Vector]

Blargh.  Okay, fine.

Those with positive scum readings:

1. Pandarsenic
2. Frelock
3. ToonyMan

... Why shouldn't we kill ToonyMan, again?  We'll get loads of information if we do it--far more so than if we kill Pandarsenic or Frelock.  Additionally, the town will be more likely to have lost only one member, rather than two.  Finally, we'll be able to definitively prove whether or not LeafSnail is the cop.  Etc., etc.

C'mon, folks.  It's the logical thing to do.

[Mr.Person]

Blargh.  Okay, fine.

Those with positive scum readings:

1. Pandarsenic
2. Frelock
3. ToonyMan

... Why shouldn't we kill ToonyMan, again?  We'll get loads of information if we do it--far more so than if we kill Pandarsenic or Frelock.  Additionally, the town will be more likely to have lost only one member, rather than two.  Finally, we'll be able to definitively prove whether or not LeafSnail is the cop.  Etc., etc.

C'mon, folks.  It's the logical thing to do.

What? That wouldn't prove if Leafsnail was the cop or not! There are only 2 ways to prove somebody is a role: 1. Roleflipping on death and 2. Eliminate all other possibilities. Since it's quite conceivable that many of us could be a cop, even if ToonyMan is scum, I don't see how lynching ToonyMan would prove Leafsnail is a cop. In addition, I question if lynching a townie for information is a good idea.

I want everybody to consider what Vector is saying. He wants to kill a player he admits is probably a townie, and I don't see how ToonyMan's roleflip will really affect anything. In fact, it won't prove anything UNLESS ToonyMan flips cop. Let's lynch one of the players who actually has a realistic chance of being scum, like Frelock.

[ToonyMan]

LYNCH TOONYMAN LYNCH TOONYMAN THE TOWINE

Killing someone who is most likely town is the least logical thing to do.  We should kill the person who has the highest chance of being scum.  Seeing that people with high percentages will probably lie to lower them we can't do that.

Here's what I got:

9 white pieces. Townie.
10 blue pieces.  Cop.
8 green pieces. Vigilante.
2 red pieces.  Doctor.
3 black pieces.  Alpha Mafia?
6 gray pieces.  The other Mafia?

9/38=24% townie.
10/38=26% cop.
8/38=21% vigilante.
2/38=5% doctor.
3/38=8% alpha mafia.
6/38=16% other mafia.

I say we lynched Pandarsenic or Frelock.  Seeing that Mr.Person has the same idea.

Vote Frelock.