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[dakarian]

Post scan won't come till tomorrow.  Stinks, but I'm completely spent (3 hour bus ride+ 2nd shift job = ugg).  Might come at 2am though. 

I'll throw in one last thought anyway fo the lulz and answer them again later.

Also realized that I'm WIFOM myself.  I keep thinking up theories of why a person is town, then saying "That's what they want you to think".  Bad enough self WIFOM when you waffle.  It's a big red flag when you're literally QUOTING Princess Bride. 

I keep thinking that it'll be easier to find who's town than who's scum.  I'm hoping my scan will discover a player/combo of players who's actions would make NO sense if they are scum.  For example, there are a few ways that Day 2 could've ended with near instant win for scum (no, I don't know them.. it's the Gut talking), rather than the ugly but possible chance we have now. 

A player that had that game breaking chance but didn't take it would be a very good canidate for Confirmed Townie.  I think if I can just find ONE person.. just ONE that fits that, the rest would fall into place.

For now, the best thing to do is hear from Vector and you , Free Beer:  answer Web's question: Who do you think are the two scum? And why? 

[Free Beer]

Post scan won't come till tomorrow.  Stinks, but I'm completely spent (3 hour bus ride+ 2nd shift job = ugg).  Might come at 2am though. 

Print out the thread and read it on the bus .

For now, the best thing to do is hear from Vector and you , Free Beer:  answer Web's question: Who do you think are the two scum? And why? 

There are 10 possible scum combos. I'm not scum, so that's -4. I'm not going to discuss the combos involving dakarian for reasons previously explained. On the remaining 3 combos:
Kashyyk/webadict is extremely unlikely, given Vector's behavior on Day Two.
Kashyyk/eduren is unlikely but possible, again given Vector's behavior on Day Two.
webadict/eduren was suggested on Day One. There is some evidence to support it, but not enough to make a strong, informed decision.

[webadict]

Post scan won't come till tomorrow.  Stinks, but I'm completely spent (3 hour bus ride+ 2nd shift job = ugg).  Might come at 2am though. 

Print out the thread and read it on the bus .

For now, the best thing to do is hear from Vector and you , Free Beer:  answer Web's question: Who do you think are the two scum? And why? 

There are 10 possible scum combos. I'm not scum, so that's -4. I'm not going to discuss the combos involving dakarian for reasons previously explained. On the remaining 3 combos:
Kashyyk/webadict is extremely unlikely, given Vector's behavior on Day Two.
Kashyyk/eduren is unlikely but possible, again given Vector's behavior on Day Two.
webadict/eduren was suggested on Day One. There is some evidence to support it, but not enough to make a strong, informed decision.

So, you're just going to remove dakarian from the list? That's a bunch of crap.

If we're going to do that, that's NOT informed AT ALL. Here's a list of ALL possible teams (Yes, I'll include me. Some of us aren't naive enough to think no one suspects them. You can't leave people off for no reason. You can however, remove them after you explain):
eduren/Vector
eduren/Free Beer
eduren/dakarian
eduren/webadict
Vector/Free Beer
Vector/dakarian
Vector/webadict
Free Beer/dakarian
Free Beer/webadict
dakarian/webadict

These are are physically possible combinations. Now, obviously, I know I'm not scum, so I can eliminate them from my suspicions.

eduren/Vector
eduren/Free Beer
eduren/dakarian
Vector/Free Beer
Vector/dakarian
Free Beer/dakarian

That leaves these six combinations. For some reason, I feel like Vector is town, so I'll eliminate him from my suspicions list, which leaves:

eduren/Free Beer
eduren/dakarian
Free Beer/dakarian

These three. See, the problem with me is that I'm can't read any of you three, because most of you are new. My gut says eduren is definitely one of the scum, but I like to second guess myself. I really really wish Kashyyk wasn't the replacement for Vector, because Kashyyk NEVER EVER SAYS ANYTHING! I want a Day Extension or replacement or something because I know Kashyyk will never come back...

[Free Beer]

So, you're just going to remove dakarian from the list? That's a bunch of crap.

I didn't say that. I said "I'm not going to discuss them." If you're that interested, ask me again after I've questioned dakarian further. There's a good chance I'll report the results anyway after I've finished.

For the record, your reaction did not do much to help clear the webadict/dakarian combo.

[webadict]

So, you're just going to remove dakarian from the list? That's a bunch of crap.

I didn't say that. I said "I'm not going to discuss them." If you're that interested, ask me again after I've questioned dakarian further. There's a good chance I'll report the results anyway after I've finished.

For the record, your reaction did not do much to help clear the webadict/dakarian combo.

I don't care about clearing any combo. Only that you AREN'T clearing dakarian. I'm more interested in clearing myself, thank you, because the only thing I'm aware of is that I'm town. Everything else is only a guess. I'm guessing Vector is town. I'm guessing eduren is scum. I'm not here to prove myself to you alone. I'm here to help the town.

Oh and just so you know, you didn't do much to clear the dakarian/Free Beer combo.[/sarcasm]

The fact is, combos cannot be cleared. You can only assume that so-and-so is not mafia because of this-and-this. Please don't assume your combo list is all important, because it's just a list, and a list doesn't tell you who's mafia. You make inferences, observations, and, if it comes to it, you make informed guesses. The mafia themselves are sure of everything because they know who is town and who is scum. I can't honestly say I know who is scum. I just know that I am not.

[Eduren]

Sorry guys ill be gone 'till tonight. For now, Im going to say that web looks fishy but it really could be anyone.

[webadict]

Sorry guys ill be gone 'till tonight. For now, Im going to say that web looks fishy but it really could be anyone.

If you think I'm fishy, why aren't you voting for me? What about me is fishy? Please feel free to be as vague as possible, because that's going to get us somewhere. You're not the least bit concerned that you're up for lynch, so I'd rather you did something, because not doing anything doesn't help either team, no matter which side you're on.

[Mephansteras]

The Whiteboard
dakarian: Free Beer
eduren: dakarian, webadict


Reminder: Day 3 ends ~5pm Pacific Friday. However, I may have to extend that a bit as I might have to go to work at 3am tomorrow, and that'll mess up my whole schedule. I won't end the day before 5, though.

[dakarian]

Don't be surprised if we are screaming "EXTEND" well before that

Yes yes, I'm scanning now.

[dakarian]

Alright.  Did a scan of Day 2, focusing on how people struck at each other.

First off, those possible combos again:

eduren/Vector
eduren/Free Beer
eduren/dakarian
eduren/webadict
Vector/Free Beer
Vector/dakarian
Vector/webadict
Free Beer/dakarian
Free Beer/webadict
dakarian/webadict


Now, since I know I'm town, I'll remove myself from it, leaving:

eduren/Vector
eduren/Free Beer
eduren/webadict
Vector/Free Beer
Vector/webadict
Free Beer/webadict

Now, I took a look at attacks that one person made to another.  First off, I noticed that a large batch of the attacks involved dead people (Toony/Jim) or involved me.  Of the rest:

Vector pretty much butted heads with everyone at this point, with Free Beer starting off nice and fresh in the day, then later Web attacking him.  Eduren joined in via my bet while it was still aimed at Vector.  Meanwhile, Vector didn't like Eduren or Web, with most of the dislike towards Eduren until Web showed up.  Unless I missed it, it seemed that Web and Free Beer both brought Vector into the spotlight while Vector started everything on Eduren. 

The point?  I'm trying to would be CRAZY for the mafia to do.  Bussing a partner when it seems they may die can make sense, though it's a gamble.  Starting the fight off with them without ANY prior suspicions is just too crazy. 

Sidenote: The whole Jim/Web theory I had was based on Jim having no suspicions and Web having plenty just for being Web. 

Thus, by that idea, Free Beer/Vector and Web/Vector are bad options since Vector was called out by both people, ESPECIALLY Web.  Meanwhile, Vector helped pull Eduren into the spot light again and would've gone further had Web not charged in.  Thus Eduren/Vector is out.  For those still linking me as a possible scum, I could've just sided with Vector/Jim against Webadict or just charged STRAIT for Jim and ignored Web's protests. The former would've been easier, with Jim supporting Vector and Toony probably ready to tear into Web. That makes Dakarian/Vector out

And with that, Vector would have NO partner if he's scum.  Without a partner, he's a good canidate for being a townie.

Assuming that:

eduren/Free Beer
eduren/webadict
Free Beer/webadict

We're down to this.

Hmm, for now I'll go ahead and post that then finish the rest in another post.

[dakarian]

So to recap:

All of the dead people were townies, so they aren't scum..of course.

Vector was under direct attack by everyone but Eduren, and he attacked Eduren.  Him being scum with another is just plain madness, since the attacks involved bringing someone under low/no suspicion and getting them into the spotlight.  Scum tend to prefer bussing someone already IN the spotlight.  As such, it suggests that Vector is Town.

Assuming that, we're left with this:

eduren/Free Beer
eduren/webadict
Free Beer/webadict


Or, for those "Don't kick Dakarian out of this" folks:

eduren/Free Beer
eduren/webadict
Free Beer/webadict
Dakarian/webadict
Dakarian/Free Beer
Dakarian/Eduren

Here's where things get silly.  You see, there's not much interaction between these folks on Day 2.  Me and Web went at each other but for and against, though I kept on Jim all day.  Web threw a vote on Eduren, but turned to Toonyman after Toony voted on Eduren (sidenote: Toony's vote gave Eduren the majority till Web pulled his off).

So, Day 1 might give something:

First off, I think I can mark Eduren/Me off the list due to my WoT on him.  Vector stated some suspicion but overall people were looking elsewhere.  After my WoT, Blood joined in, putting Eduren into lynching position.  Yes, I pulled out later after his explanation, but I still set the spotlight on him when I could've just aimed for someone else. 

A little stumped from here.. so I'll get to answering questions:

# And could you tell us who you think is town? Be aware that there are still three townies present. What evidence makes you think that they are town?

I'm town because I know I am (yes, everyone will say that ).  Also Vector I believe is town due to what I wrote earlier. 

# What do you think of webadict's "the four people who were at each other's throats yesterday were all town" theory? In particular, how do you feel about webadict and Vector (now Kashyyk) being among those four?

Only way it wouldn't work is if Web is one of the scum.  It's a possiblity. 

# Could you elaborate on what you think of me? What do you think of my actions this game? What stands out? Are the actions scummy? Is my reasoning good or bad? Are the actions I made actions that you would reasonably take?

Excluding those that are already dead, you havn't really fought against anyone, though you do poke around a bit.  You're pretty useful, so that's a push for town, but you can be linked with any of the others easily, so that's a push for scum.  You made a wonderful defense, though so you're a little ahead of the others in towniness.


# If you think ToonyMan's theory was par for the course, what did you think about his continued insistence that webadict is scum?

Tricky, since he tended to jump very quickly and not give a lot of analysis.  Besides, it's hard to use the accusations of others along to mark scumminess, since it's easy enough for said townies to be wrong.

# What did you think of Jim Groovester's "webadict and dakarian were out to get me on Day Two so they MUST be scum" theory? What did you think of his change to me after I accused him?

I stated the answer to #2 on day 2.. he OMGUS you, which I called him out on.  The theory itself is OMGUS.  Just because someone wants you dead doesn't mean they are scum.  You need more evidence than that.


Btw:

Hey Web!   About Day 2.  There were 3 people on Eduren after you voted for him (after the whole comment about the 'four townies killing themselves') and, once the third vote-Toony-came on, you pulled from Eduren and went after Toony..turning a possible Lynch into a possible Tie. 

Why did you do that?


Hey Eduren!  What do you think of me?  Scum or town?

[webadict]

Because I can't read ToonyMan. He's anti-Town as town and scum.

Also, dakarian, your analysis is fallacious for someone who really hates fallacies. You say anyone who attacks anyone can't be partners, but that's simply dumb. Scum can do whatever they want.

Also, dakarian, I believe the scum team to be you and eduren. Especially with your little "Oh, that can't be the team" statement.

Also, I was talking to someone else when I said don't kick out dakarian. It's funny because you actually left yourself in, making your town comment moot, and basically copying me.

Just so everyone knows, the scum team is indeed dakarian/eduren.

It's now incredibly simple to see.

[Kashyyk]

Okay, I'm here now.

Lots of homework + A flight to spain = a loss of seventy-two hours.
Anyway, enough maths for now.

Finally someone thinks I'm town. Although Webadict, you are right about not discounting me from the possible mafia ranks, just because everyone who is alive attacked Vector/Me at some point.I mean, if I was scum I would do exactly that.

But anyway, again refering to Webadict, I think you wanted to know who I though the Town was. Well, The simple answer would be two of you four but that doesn't help. I have to disagree with you Webadict, as I feel that Dakarian is Town. Don't ask why, but I think he is now. The other Towny, I have no idea.

[webadict]

I'm telling you: If it's not dakarian, it's Free Beer.

[Free Beer]

I've got more followups, dakarian:

• Your vote is currently on eduren. Why is it on eduren?
• Could you be more specific on your thoughts of the following of my actions:
   -When I threatened to hammer Org on Day One
   -When I voted Vector on Day Two
   -When I FOS'd webadict (multiple times) on Day Two
   -When I refused to buy into your plan on Day Two
   -When I voted Jim Groovester on Day Two