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Author Topic: Beginners Mafia - Game over!  (Read 72989 times)

ToonyMan

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #450 on: August 10, 2009, 06:42:40 am »

Like I don't know dood, but I simulated this thing dakarian.  If we lynch a town by accident we can still win easily.
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dakarian

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #451 on: August 10, 2009, 07:52:45 am »

Toony, your analysis is a reason why I felt good about this idea.  I noticed that everyone seems to be looking at me bad, but are willing to just bearly trust me.. for now.  Some are just after others at the moment, while others are judging on whether I hit properly.  I'll have to shake that off for three days to keep alive and if we guess wrong day 2 or 3, the mafia will try to make me the last lynch.  I'm a liability now. 

Meanwhile, if I can solve the puzzle NOW, post everything here, then confirm it as town, we'll match your "oh no, we hit town' theory.  I'd rather gamble on that.

Call the bluff, Toony.  Vote me.  That'll force Jim and eduren to vote.  That'll give me 3 votes in majority. 


Btw, Vector, a question: assuming I'm town, who would you think are the two mafias?  Your vote is still on web so I'm guessing you still think it's web+me.  Without me, though, who else?
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dakarian

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #452 on: August 10, 2009, 07:55:03 am »

Meanwhile:

Don't think I forgot you Web.  There's a post I have directed at you a few replies back.  I suggest you read it and answer.

Because right now, I'm thinking of declaring that you die after Jim, not Vector.
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Mephansteras

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #453 on: August 10, 2009, 11:44:12 am »

The Whiteboard
Jim Groovester: dakarian
Vector: Free Beer, ToonyMan, eduren, webadict
webadict: Jim Groovester, Vector
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ToonyMan

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #454 on: August 10, 2009, 11:48:38 am »

Unvote.

Vote dakarian.

I got this.
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Vector

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #455 on: August 10, 2009, 01:08:26 pm »

Btw, Vector, a question: assuming I'm town, who would you think are the two mafias?  Your vote is still on web so I'm guessing you still think it's web+me.  Without me, though, who else?

As I've previously stated a few times, I consider you town.  Your "masterminding" behavior is rather suspect--why are you trying so hard to control the entire course of the game if you're not scum?--but I still consider you far less suspicious than webadict.

Webadict's partner is... I'm not sure, actually.  I could believe that eduren is scum that got away, as he continues to bandwagon and play foolish with impunity.  As far as I can see, his forgiven status of Day One has allowed him to get away with a lot of lurking and bandwagoning.  I think it will be extremely unfortunate if he's scum and manages to get past us just because we went after Org.  It also seems odd that webadict jumped in and accused Org, another easy-lynch, just after eduren was about to be offed.  The votes on Org prior to that were (stated to be) instigated due to lurking and general unhelpfulness, with the promise that they would move back to eduren if Org provided some information.  Webadict's was the first flat-out accusation, and moved the group's attention over to Org.  I can certainly see webadict doing this to help out eduren.

If I had to pick a pair, then, it would be webadict/eduren, though I could conceive of it being webadict/someone generally disconnected from him.  I don't see webadict working with you or with Jim, though his insults and derision directed towards the latter might serve as an attempted distancer.

So, in summary: if I had to pick one, I'd go with webadict/eduren.  The latter part of the pairing is more of a guess than anything else, so don't get too excited about it.  Webadict is still the one I'm really worried about.
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Vector

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #456 on: August 10, 2009, 01:11:51 pm »

So, Vector, ToonyMan, and Free Beer, what will it be? Will you help eduren and me call dakarian's bluff?

Maybe.  I trust both of you, and this situation seems kind of outrageous.  For the moment, I'm sticking to my guns.  If it comes to a no-lynch vs. dakarian lynch, though, I will definitely join you.
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Vector

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #457 on: August 10, 2009, 01:27:06 pm »

I still believe Jim to be acting scummier than you and plan to re-evaluate my vote when Jim explains himself further. As for his partner, I would place it as either you or Toonyman.

Ill have to ask you for a summary of them other than "he's not answering questions". While yes his evasiveness is worrying, it may just be a dismissive and condescending attitude that is causing it.

All right, fair enough.  Another question, sorry.

What makes you think Jim is working with ToonyMan, other than that you suspect them both?  Have you seen any signs of them working together?

And as for your summary, here it is:

1. Webadict is going for easy lynches.

2. If he were town, you'd think he would have died on the first night.  He may be the natural person for doctor protection, but that assumes that doctors exist.

3. He doesn't provide information to others, and continually runs away from questions he doesn't like.

4. I caught him lying.

5. He directed the newbies to start a lurker hunt (in a pedagogical tone), and then proceeded to attack them for it--even though he signed up to lead us through the first day. I personally thought that meant we were supposed to listen to him and take his instruction.  Apparently not.

To Everyone:

If anyone else is considering eduren for webadict's partner, you should note that this lurker-hunt webadict seems to have touched off started in response to attacks on eduren.

Dakarian suggested a lynch for one slip-up.  Here are five.  Hopefully, I will be able to gather even more.
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Vector

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #458 on: August 10, 2009, 03:30:37 pm »

... Quadruple-post?  What the heck... anyway, here's your response, Free Beer.

You mentioned that you are thankful for Jim's defense of you, and in fact have not defended yourself on at least one occasion due to this fact. Why do you think he is defending you?

As previously stated, I think he is defending me for several reasons.  First off, he believes me to be town, and valuable enough to put his life on the line for.  Second of all, we seem to think similarly--defense of group beliefs.  Third, he has ended up defending me while I was away from the computer and unable to respond.  The last reason is probably the key.  I would have written up a defense, but I was busy due to other things occurring in my life.  Then, given my long absence, he decided to step in.

And could you elaborate on your opinion of Jim's argument against webadict; especially the part where he implicitly claimed Cop but has yet to deliver the goods?

I am assuming that here, "he" refers to Jim Groovester, and that you're talking about the argument from day one?  Would you mind clarifying the question?  I'm not sure if there's some specific post you're alluding to.

If you are wrong, and webadict is town, what role do you think he has? Townsperson, Cop, or Doctor?

If he's town, I'm guessing he's a townsperson--though I don't really have any strong suspicions either way.  We don't even know if a cop or doctor exists, and I don't trust his claim of being a cop.  He said he'd have more information after the night--implying that he was going to investigate--but instead he seems to have been bluffing/lying again.  I don't see any reason to think he would be the doctor.  To be honest, he's being a bit too nonchalant about his life (though that may be intentional).

So, in short: he looks like scum to me.  If he's town, I'd guess he's a run-of-the-mill townsperson.

And what do you think of ToonyMan's planned scenario for the game?

It makes me a feel a bit more secure about another town lynch, but I would be surprised if everything turned out so well.  Essentially, he's trying for a game where two townies die, and then we manage to get two scum in a row.  If we mislynch for either of the last two, though, we're dead.  To be honest, I envy his self-confidence.
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Free Beer

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #459 on: August 10, 2009, 03:47:48 pm »

And could you elaborate on your opinion of Jim's argument against webadict; especially the part where he implicitly claimed Cop but has yet to deliver the goods?

I am assuming that here, "he" refers to Jim Groovester, and that you're talking about the argument from day one?  Would you mind clarifying the question?  I'm not sure if there's some specific post you're alluding to.


Jim Groovester's argument against webadict at the beginning of Day Two was that webadict implicitly claimed Cop at the end of Day One (proof etc), but has yet to actually come out and say it. That is the part of Jim Groovester's argument against webadict that I am most interested in hearing your opinion on.
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Vector

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #460 on: August 10, 2009, 04:20:35 pm »

Jim Groovester's argument against webadict at the beginning of Day Two was that webadict implicitly claimed Cop at the end of Day One (proof etc), but has yet to actually come out and say it. That is the part of Jim Groovester's argument against webadict that I am most interested in hearing your opinion on.

I think I've already addressed this in a couple of other posts, but I'll summarize.

1. Webadict vaguely claimed both cop and doctor, and has failed to deliver the goods.  This looks suspicious to me, so I figure that he is none of the above and is, at the very most, town.

2. I have a fairly large number of reasons why I suspect webadict, which I have outlined.  Only one of those has anything to do with Jim's arguments.

3. Because I do not really know how to rolefish, I can't tell if Jim is rolefishing or not.  I do think, however, that if rolefishing is occurring, then webadict invited it with his false claim and is now trying to attack Jim for addressing bait.  Perhaps Jim is rolefishing.  Perhaps webadict is lily-innocent.  For now, I'm sticking with my story.

4. I also find it suspect that webadict was not even willing to answer eduren's question on what rolefishing is (middle of page 25).  This is not someone who is trying very hard to help the newbies.

That's the answer to all questions that have been posed to me, I think.  If I missed anything, please let me know.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #461 on: August 10, 2009, 05:37:00 pm »

Call the bluff, Toony.  Vote me.  That'll force Jim and eduren to vote.  That'll give me 3 votes in majority. 

Not necessarily. Three votes is not enough to make a majority when there's seven of us. With your vote on me and the rest on Vector, it would be a tie, and nobody gets lynched.

Anyways, ToonyMan is a definitely on the dakarian bluff call, and eduren and I are definitely on it if there's at least one other person who's a definitely. Vector said he'd definitely do it if there was no lynch situation today, so he's a maybe. Free Beer hasn't given his opinion on it yet. I'll avoid changing my vote, because I think there might be some motion against webadict today. He'd be the more important lynch today, rather than giving dakarian what he wants.

Vector, Free Beer, what do you think of my evidence on dakarian and webadict's suspect relationship? It looked like it may have been lost in the middle of dakarian's reckless gamble.
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Free Beer

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #462 on: August 10, 2009, 07:42:45 pm »

Alright, dakarian. I'll bite.

I suspect two people more than I suspect Jim, but dakarian is not one of them. Jim's recent actions aren't exactly helping his case, either.

Unvote. Vote Jim Groovester.

Alright, eduren. I agree to your proposal. If I will vote for dakarian, then you will vote for him as well.

That makes two of us. But before I change my vote, I want to hear from Vector, ToonyMan and Free Beer about it. If we're going to call him on his bluff, we might as well make certain about it.

So, Vector, ToonyMan, and Free Beer, what will it be? Will you help eduren and me call dakarian's bluff?
Not necessarily. Three votes is not enough to make a majority when there's seven of us. With your vote on me and the rest on Vector, it would be a tie, and nobody gets lynched.

Let me get this straight, Jim: you want to vote dakarian, but you won't vote dakarian unless everybody else does too? That's like bandwagoning, only worse. You aren't acting with the town's interests at heart. You only care about reducing the amount of suspicion that heads your way. You're acting like scum.

Vector, Free Beer, what do you think of my evidence on dakarian and webadict's suspect relationship? It looked like it may have been lost in the middle of dakarian's reckless gamble.

I don't think your evidence is any more convincing than the evidence I have of webadict's suspect relationship with you. He voted you only very briefly and accused you once more, and you led a rather ineffectual campaign against him today. Meanwhile, halfway through Day Two, webadict switched gears and started defending you from the people who tried to group you with his intended target for the day, Vector. I consider that about equally as suspicious as his interactions with dakarian. I'd question you if I had more time, but I don't. I'll just accuse you instead and see how badly your story cracks under the pressure.

My full list of suspicions against you, Jim Groovester:
-You marked Org for death even from the beginning of Day One. You claimed Org was lurking at the beginning, but kept your vote on him anyway when you noticed he still posted. You occasionally got sidetracked with other lurkers, but you still came back to Org.
-You were very jumpy during Day One. You asked that I clarify the context of a post that was addressed to BloodBeard. Why? Obviously you must have thought it was addressed to you. Paranoid about being suspected, are you?
-You defended Vector on multiple occasions. Defending other people does not help the town. If someone is being accused or questioned, the intent is to determine that person's guilt. If someone were interested in your guilt, they'd question you instead.
-As previously noted, I suspect webadict heavily. His above described suspect behavior regarding you, combined with the obvious lack of relationship between Vector and webadict, leads me to believe you are probably webadict's partner in scum.
-On the off-chance that Vector, my other main suspect, is scum, the strong connection between the two of you leads me to believe that you would also be his partner in scum.
-dakarian is willing to risk the fate of the entire game on your scumminess. Something has to be up with that. I'd expect a scum ploy like this if it were lynch or lose, but we've still got at least one, probably two more days left.
-You're trying to organize a bandwagon on dakarian without actually taking the risk of voting for him. It's been repeated numerous times in this game: caution is a scum tell.
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webadict

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #463 on: August 10, 2009, 08:00:57 pm »

All right.  I can see that you want to lynch me, and that's fine.  I wish you wouldn't, and it's kind of stupid, but if that's how it's going to go then I understand.  First of all, however, I have some questions to ask you.  I have a few more posts after this, but I'm going to break them up this time--hopefully you'll actually read them this time.

Though I understand that people take suspected scum with a grain of salt, it seems downright inconsiderate to not even read/respond to what I have to say.

1. To dakarian, ToonyMan, and Free Beer: Why does it not worry you that webadict never answers any of the questions posed to him, and did not respond to my defense?

2. Dakarian, you seem very frightened.  Why are you so scared, if you're town?  It shouldn't bother you to have webadict suspect you, other than the fact that townies around him tend to die.  You're suddenly making grammatical and spelling mistakes all over the place.  You're also yelling.

3. Dakarian, if you think we should lynch all liars, why does Webadict's lie not bother you?  He accused me of doing something ToonyMan had done, and then refused to answer my allegations.  Is he fine because you're in league with him?

4. Webadict: why aren't you answering any of my questions or responding to me?

5. Webadict: why do you trust Free Beer, and why do you think the scum will NK him?
4. I am answering all questions as I am aware of them, except those I have explicitly stated not answering, for reasons either publicly declared or privately held and later publicly declared. If I miss some of them, it is because I tend to skip over posts while I read sometimes.

5. If I were scum, I would kill someone with either no suspicions on them, or someone I KNOW would never get protected. Hence why I would've killed dakarian, since I'd obviously believe I have the doctor protection, and he wouldn't. I'd also believe that I would be getting the Cop's action as well, and I'd probably be looking for him first Day.

Yes.. more posts.  Completing my search on Webadict.

Web, first off.. you might as well vote for me.  You're after me, you want me dead.  You're sure I'm scum. I know you're more stubborn and if you hold back now you'll STILL be suspicious of me.  Let's not play games.  Just lynch me.

Then it becomes a matter of making sure you don't die with me.

I looked back.. you HAVE been rather nonanswering of questions.  You ask.. a lot of questions, but don't answer them well.  Time for you to answer some.


1. Why have you been after Vector since Day 1?  You keep saying "he'll prove it".  I didn't like it.  I DON'T like it.  It's time you end it.  Please answer that question.

No.. don't JUST use Day 2's evidence.  That's useful, but you accused him on day 1.  No, don't say "I said it before".  If you did, quote the post.  I want it all NOW, from Day 1 to now, why you SWARE he's guilty.


2. To webadict: if I were scum, why would I kill BloodBeard?

In fact, let's just go all out.  For now, let's just pretend I'm NOT scum to you.  You can pick out any other person to be with Vector, except me.  You'll need this logic tomorrow anyway so just play along.

Now, please, tell me why BloodBeard would be killed.  In fact, as best you can, if Vector and someone else is scum, what are their plans.  Why are they doing what they doing in the day and why did they kill BloodBeard at night?

Please don't play the "I don't have to answer.. you're scum" line.  This post will be used as evidence tomorrow.  These are the questions you did NOT answer so far.  If you want Vector dead and not yourself, please answer them.  I gave Eduren, Jim, and Vector this chance.  Eduren proved himself.  Vector gave himself this shot via you.  Jim failed, miserably.  If you fail, you die.  If you defend yourself, Vector dies.
I don't have to answer, scum!

Psh. Why would I ever say that?

1. I had a feeling it was him, due to his nature. Though recent events have led me to believe something odd is happening...

2. Well, I explained right above the post actually. Free Beer is the least likely to get Doctor protection. Well, not really anymore.

2b. If I were to assume you weren't scum, then (before these recent posts) I'd probably pair Vector and... eduren? ToonyMan? I simply have no idea. However, I'll explain post my thinkings:

What if we're all being really stupid about this?

Let's think about this logically: There are two teams of us arguing over who's guilty.

dakarian/webadict vs. Vector/Jim Groovester

Each team thinks one or both of the others is scum. We each call for the lynching of the other. Now, let's assume Vector loses.

"Vector is lynched. Vector is town!"

I say a major, "Oh crap." I proceed to wish scum kills me in order to save the game. However, something like this happens:

"Jim Groovester is found dead. Jim Groovester is town!"

Either dakarian or I are lynched and we lose the game, simply because of one key element:

There are three teams.

We forgot ToonyMan/eduren/Free Beer. They are the bystanders, watching us kill each other, especially given the lack of effort on ToonyMan's or eduren's part. Free Beer certainly has been asking questions...

Maybe I'm being crazy, but I thought I had nailed Vector as scum... But, then I read this:
For now, Im convinced. Vector

Followed by this:
Sigh... Jim, he has a point. Can you explain why your vote stays on Web?

Because I will not lend credibility to dakarian's plan by voting for him. He directly challenged me, and I refused. So he challenged me even more, and I still refused. So I got the feeling that this brilliant plan of his requires my vote to lend it legitimacy. So I refused.

What else would you like? His gamble is idiotic. He's trying to portray himself as some sort of martyr, as a savior to the town, but he's under absolutely zero threat to be lynched today. He's trying to define the terms of the discussion as a binary choice between either Vector or himself, and he broke those terms by voting for me. His whole gamble seems like a knee-jerk reaction to me detailing webadict and dakarian's suspect relationship.

webadict and dakarian are working together. webadict is the smart one, and dakarian will continue to make mistakes. So my vote stays on webadict. Since he's better at concealing his guilt, he's the more dangerous scum. dakarian, on the other hand, will likely make several more mistakes, and nobody will forget this brilliant plan of his come tomorrow. He can be dealt with later.

He's not the only one that can make wild gambles...

I propose that we call his "bluff". According to him it won't matter if he is lynched so i propose that we do just that. The only reason you haven't jumped on it is because it is not certain that you will get the necessary votes.

If You vote for dakarian, then i will do likewise. (I assume that Vector will do so also).

If dakarian is scum, as you claim, then this offer will be impossible to turn down.

And I saw several other posts made by Vector that said that maybe I should reconsider. I'm afraid I am sorry for pressuring you so much. You did seem very scummy at the time and I thought about it and then I realized: eduren was posting just fine when we pressured him, but suddenly disregards everything now that the heat's off. He is EXPLICITLY saying he's going to follow someone. That's dumb and suddenly counterproductive.

I'm afraid I'm not willing to gamble your lives. I'm not willing to gamble anyone's life but my own. I can't say that we lynch Jim and if he's town we lynch dakarian. Because that's how games end up losing very fast. Townies thinking the other is scum and getting everyone to lynch one and then the other.

No, I'm not doing that. I can't even vote Vector any longer, because I know we'll be going after one of us: me, dakarian, or Jim Groovester, and losing hardcore.

So, let's turn our attention to eduren, ToonyMan, or Free Beer for a second. Does anyone agree to that?

I'll quote Mr.Person for my apology Vector:
Quote
You're overanalyzing, webadict.

Unvote.
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Eduren

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Re: Beginners Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #464 on: August 10, 2009, 08:35:28 pm »

I still believe Jim to be acting scummier than you and plan to re-evaluate my vote when Jim explains himself further. As for his partner, I would place it as either you or Toonyman.

Ill have to ask you for a summary of them other than "he's not answering questions". While yes his evasiveness is worrying, it may just be a dismissive and condescending attitude that is causing it.

All right, fair enough.  Another question, sorry.

What makes you think Jim is working with ToonyMan, other than that you suspect them both?  Have you seen any signs of them working together?

I have not seen signs of them working together. I understand that that makes my case really weak and that is why I have yet to condemn either of them.

And as for your summary, here it is:

1. Webadict is going for easy lynches.

2. If he were town, you'd think he would have died on the first night.  He may be the natural person for doctor protection, but that assumes that doctors exist.

3. He doesn't provide information to others, and continually runs away from questions he doesn't like.

4. I caught him lying.

5. He directed the newbies to start a lurker hunt (in a pedagogical tone), and then proceeded to attack them for it--even though he signed up to lead us through the first day. I personally thought that meant we were supposed to listen to him and take his instruction.  Apparently not.

1. Fair enough. Org turned out to be an easy lynch, and I guess you might have seemed to be just as easy. Then when you defended yourself and others gave resistance he has backed down.

2. Why would he be a NK target? Because of his experience?

3. Ill give you that, he has been sketchy under questioning. So Webadict, why so reluctant to work with us?

4. Can you explain? Quotes if you can spare them.

5. If I were to defend him i guess that I would say that was his plan. See who would follow him in order to blend in? But Im not defending him and would like to apologize for dismissing him.

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