Moore's Law: Basically, processing speed and memory capacity are expected to double every 18 months.
Dwarf Fortress development: Expected to span many years, possibly decades.
In 15 years, CPU, RAM, and Video Cards would be roughly 1000 times more powerful than now.
It's a bit scary to imagine what DF could accomplish with that much processing power.
A complicating factor is the need to code and recode for new systems. Much of the speed in recent years has come from multi-threading, which DF doesn't do. Happily, the game is getting more graphically up to date, which helps tremendously.
Therefore, while we can certainly expect speed increases, they're not going to fully match Moore's Law.
My current machine was built in January 2002 and was a high-end machine for its day, costing about $1750. If I were to spend the same amount of money today, my best guess, based on reports by users of modern high-end computers on the forums, is that DF would run between three and five times faster for any given fort and settings.
That's a doubling time of between 39 and 57 months.
My source of joy doesn't come from the concept of my dwarves breaking the light barrier.
It's more of wild fantasies of a game that is beyond awesome. (Imagine what Spore could have been. Now add 5 kilobatmans of awesome to that.)
Imagine:
A game that is able to generate an entire planet, shaping the world through running rivers, volcanoes, and natural events. It seeds the world with a myriad of creatures. It simulates natural selection and creates a teeming ecosystem. It then records every action, from the birth of a new litter of sheep-wolf to the creation of a village. From these recorded stories, the game generates factions with unique cultures. The founder was fond of lizards and an adept miner, and the region filled with rocky cliffs? A civilization that lives in sheer cliff walls and traverses it by riding on giant riding lizards. An underwater race and a founder who is a bloodthirsty bonescraftsman? A pirate-fishmen nation who builds their constructions out of the bones of those who they kill.
You choose to start your game as a single adventuredwarf. You start off in a fully explorable city. You head to the keep for you first adventure. On your way there, you stop at the hall of records and you learn about the history of your faction, and its ongoing war with the elves.
After an eventful adventuring life, you accept a position as the commander of the army. You pan your camera back. You are now looking at an army, along with a larger view of the surrounding landscape. You lead your army across the continent, conquering and defeating all you see. Soon, You are a legend among your people, and an evil tale for your nation's enemies.
After being insulted by the King, you decided it was no longer time to take crap from anyone else. You stage a military coup and become the new ruler. You zoom out again. The entire empire is within sight. You are able to establish colonies, create trading relationships, and declare war. Over time, your empire becomes rich with the spoils of war, and you decide to construct a new capital to celebrate.
After organizing a large party of the most skilled craftsdwarves in your empire, you set off for the safest place for a city: the top of a volcano. You zoom your camera in and command the dwarves to start digging.
And during the entire process, the game is seamless. There are no load times between any zones and game-modes (all of which are accessible from the start).
That would be truly awesome.
I can fantasize, can't I?
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Topic: Dwarf Fortress development + Moore's Law = ??? (Read 10079 times)