Good question! With the unfortunate potential of savescumming, many purely "survival" based judgements are arbitrary at best, and flawed at worst.
The judging criteria should be ones that do not invite savescumming, or that profit little from it. "Last one standing" would not work well for obvious reasons, and "longest duration" could be a question of who has the best computer and most time to burn. (Also, asking for seasonal saves might ensure that some savescum tactics would not be used. Don't all
have to be looked at, just submitted - and the judges can look at which they want!)
I think that "survival" must then be based, partly at least, on "creativity under duress" - what you can achieve while surviving, as opposed to simple beating the odds. That, and/or adding additional restrictions (the "no perfect barriers" restriction in the initial challenge was a good one, but there are others.)
Therefore, "survival" must be based on who
looks like they've addressed survivability best, and not completely on the luck of the actual events. Military (both skill and equipment), constructed fortress defenses, overall security of design, and maybe death count (for/against) might all be considered.
Also, will this contest be strictly vanilla DF or will there be some rounds with mods? If so, I also stand by my previous suggestion of Raptors and Orcs.
I strongly believe that no mods should be used unless all competitors agree, and then they should be commonly used ones, and/or not radical changes. "Cats with mouths" is fine, but raptors and orcs changes a LOT. However, if everyone is up for it, and/or it's just a "ok, this time only" sort of thing, that could work. But you'll take many potentials out of the running simply because they've never seen it.
Can we pretty please pick our embarks this time around? I don't want to be stuck with a fisherdwarf when I don't need one, for example, and I don't want to know what I'm supposed to do with four pieces of graphite.
I'm cool with the embark we're handed, especially on a survival challenge. Survival challenges are never a place you *want* to be, so presumably it's not a place you were prepared to be. It's a matter of making do with whatever motley assortment of dwarves and supplies you have in a place you never expected to wind up in.
Two sides of the coin.
Many players have playstyles that rely from the start (from Embark) on certain choices, on skills and decisions that are critical and synergetic. Others don't - they play whatever. Neither is perfectly fair to all, but it strikes me that choosing allows everyone to choose, and non-choice only favors a few.
Alternates could be...
* Players choose - which starts the competition before embark, but is the least unfair.
* The dreaded "Play Now" mix, which NO one will really like, but everyone has seen - and thus be approp for a master challenge.
*The only other way to go would be to try to create some "averaged" mix from requests of all the applicants. If the starting 7 were limited in some ways (maybe 2 miner/military, 1 leader/military or leader/craft, 1 cook/brewer/grower and 3 professions*), then it's possible that everyone could get a little of what they want without getting everything - but again, here "luck" would be a big factor, if they got craft-combos that they would have chosen anyway.
(* probably limited to 1 Proficient skill)
There are (somewhat complex but fair) methods of making sure that everyone gets something close to what they want to minimize the negative, but any pre-determined mix echoes of a poker tournament where only 1 hand is dealt - if you don't like that hand, you start at a huge disadvantage, and vice versa. And that sucks.