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[Strife26]

I could actually see it having the opposite effect. Even if Iran gets democratized, I do not predict them unbecoming quite conservative Shi'ite. If they become nicer, they get world support and trade. (Democratic nations almost always end up with better economies than authoritarian ones). I could see the government keeping up with shit like that to try to please the uber-conservs as much as possible.

[Aqizzar]

Breaking News From Iran.  Headline - Riot squad commander says quote "Run For Your Lives!"

Ayatollah Khamenei promised massive crackdowns on protesters, and the protesters called his bluff.  Protest has turned to rebellion, and rebellion is threatening to turn into revolution.  National work strikes have been promised if Mousavi is personally threatened or harmed, Ayatollah (and richest man in Iran) Rafsvanjani is retracting his momentary solidarity with Khamenei, and sporadic, preplanned violence is breaking out by organized protesters on the religious pseudo-militiamen.


...militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.


There's video floating around of the uniformed riot squads breaking into panicked retreat as crowds storm barricades and hurl back teargas canisters, but I can't find any at the moment.

[ToonyMan]

Woah.  Shit just got real.

[Strife26]

That went south fast.

Now taking bets on the results

1) Protesters Crushed
2) Protesters negotiated with, minor changes
3) Protesters retake government, major changes
4) Civil War
5) World wide war
6) Nuclear war

[Okenido]

2-4 seem most likely.

1 has potential.

5-6 might be an after effect of 1-4.

[!!dwarf!!]

Greetings, Through my affiliations with a number of communist groups, I have receaved word that a number of hardcore communists are considering reformeing the international brigades to support the protesters/revolutionaries in Iran if things get any worse.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_brigade

[IndonesiaWarMinister]

International Brigade?
Is that like... Comintern or something? (Note: The only experience I have with comintern is through the game HoI2, so I *will* not be correct about whatever this)

[LegoLord]

How would a world war erupt from Iran?  It's not like we have the tangled mess of treaties there was before WWI, and it seems like the conflict is largely contained to Iran, a single country, not two rival countries (assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was by extremists of an opposing nation).  WWIII just doesn't seem like a realistic outcome.

[Onlyhestands]

From my understanding of the issue, Mousavi is still very conservative, although of course much more a reformer than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. From what I've heard many of the protesters (especially the younger ones) want many more reforms than Mousavi does, and if he thinks they're too radical he could withdraw his support and leave the protesters without a leg to stand on. Still, I hope Mousavi is put into power, despite the Iranian president's subornation to the supreme leader he could do many great things.

The government crackdowns remind me of some quote I heard
"The harder you squeeze a fistful of sand, the more it runs through your fingers" which I think is very applicable to the situation.

[Neonivek]

Are the Western Spectrums really applicable for them?

Or rather to the extent where they are accurate.

[Sowelu]

Breaking News From Iran.  Headline - Riot squad commander says quote "Run For Your Lives!"

Your post and article are making me happy for that country.

[Aqizzar]

In a general sense yes.  Mousavi is more "conservative" than most of his supporters at this point, because he was never terribly interested in changing the government itself, just some economic policies.  He's not a "revolutionary" figure and never was - the 1980 Revolutionaries made him the Prime Minister because he was most the capable and levelheaded civil servant left after they ran out all the Shah's supporters.

That being said, he's approaching this situation with the same calm calculation.  This wave of angry dissatisfaction needs a leader to go anywhere but prison, and it picked Mousavi before it even began.  He's been thrust into the role of bomb-thrower by necessity, and even still he's been personally cautious and even aloof, instead of out marching in the streets.

That's why I'm not worried about the standing government collapsing or being gutted - provided Mousavi's still alive to be shoved into it's place, he's not going to let things go crazy.  The Supreme Leader thing is another matter, but the movement has gained a powerful ally in Ayatollah Montezari.  I don't think Khamenei's reign is going to survive this dispute no matter what the outcome, he's made too many new enemies and really disgusted all the old ones.

Your post and article are making me happy for that country.

Try to imagine it in a nasally 1930's radio announcer voice.

The government crackdowns remind me of some quote I heard
"The harder you squeeze a fistful of sand, the more it runs through your fingers" which I think is very applicable to the situation.

Princess Leia Organa I think.

[Neonivek]

he was never terribly interested in changing the government itself, just some economic policies

Ohhh I see. you confused me because you said Conservative and I thought you meant the political spectrum.

You were using the other definition of Conservative so I appologise.

[Zangi]

Agreed on that outlook with Mousavi... essentially, a better option then the current.  Not much better.

Since there are groups detracting... more militant groups mind you.  There is a good chance that a bloody civil war could erupt.  If it has not already started.  Something can spark it if the current Iranian gov't doesn't cut the heads... the key 'players' of the protests and militant groups, their leaders.
Leaders other then Mousavi who are pushing the protests along... and the militant groups, their leaders too.

If it becomes a civil war.... its a coin toss if Mousavi would really be at the forefront of the rebels.  There would be many he would have to appease after the civil war, if he does somehow come to power from this.  A large demographic he himself is not 'in-tune' with... probably not his own retinue either.

Truthly, I want to walk this man's shoes and know what personal conflicts he must deal with... what he must compromise of himself and his beliefs... if this civil war gets off the ground, with him as the leading figure.  An ironic position for one who advocates what the people wish changed.

[Aqizzar]

Breaking News From Iran.  Headline - Party like it's 1399.

A curtain of silence has gone down over Iran.  No news gets in, little non-state news gets out.  Only unverifiable, and often chilling, bursts of communication escape the lockdown on Twitter, like shouts from down in a cave.  However, behind the firewall an e-war is raging on Iran's intertubes.  Tech-savvy protesters (they really need an encompassing title - Greens maybe?) have thoroughly destroyed many government run sites, Ahmadinejad's personal networks, crashed servers at the state media-controlling agencies, and even broken into the Revolutionary Guard's databases to erase whole lists of noted detractors and scattered in disinformation.

Meanwhile, as protesters are hacking up government webspaces, militiamen are reportedly hacking up protesters.  With axes.  It's rumored that across the rural countryside sporadic, shocking violence is being meted out by the Basij on anyone unfortunate enough to fail a patriotism spot-check.  The cities are turning brutal in a whole new way, after the establishment has recognized that it just can't stop people from communicating at will.  The new policy - if you're caught with any battery-powered on your person, prepare to watch it get stomped to pieces.  The Supreme Leader has ordered the police and militias to confiscate and/or destroy any electronic communication devices they see someone using, and universities have been stormed by literally pitchfork-wielding mobs smashing up ever computer they find.

What was already a iron-handed police state is quickly devolving into a barbarian kingdom.  For those who haven't heard, a few days ago a sixteen year old girl was shot to death by the riot police.  She's one of possibly a hundred people already killed in response - what makes her special is that her final, bloody moments were captured in multiple angle cell-phone camera footage, which ricocheted across Iran and around the world.  The establishment handed the protesters the greatest advantaged they could have - a martyr.  At the same time, the Supreme Leader has obviously been convinced that no other country is going to take action, overt or otherwise, regarding the violence there, and has stopped voicing even the pretense of democratic process or reconciliation.

No one in or out of Iran really knows what's going on there right now, but it's widely suspected that with most organization cut off and the militia stepping up, the protesters are losing the ground war.  The mind war is another matter, and what leaders the movement has are saying they're preparing for a long-term ideological insurgency.  Mousavi has called for one last mass sit-in at Iran's marketplaces right about now, and is expected to give his ersatz rebellion it's first official marching orders in a few hours.

There is no patience left for quarter or compromise.  The battlelines are drawn, the war begins today.