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[Solifuge]

Current Vote Count: (11/14 votes)
Abstain: Org, Kashyyk

(4) Lynch Errol: Cheetar, Inaluct, Servant Corps, Webadict
(1) Lynch Frelock: Alexhans
(1) Lynch Inaluct: Pandarsenic
(1) Lynch Little: Flintus10
(1) Lynch Servant Corps: Errol
(1) No Lynch: Lear


I'm going to extend the day by ~6 hours, since I need to hit the sack early tonight.
Unless anyone wants an extension, Day 1 concludes Tomorrow (6/17) at 6AM EST.

Solifuge talks too much... Mods SHOULDNT intervene in conversation unless strictly necessary...

Just giving rules clarifications as they come up. Also, I didn't implement pre-made scenarios. I just started with 2 balanced teams, unique roles were assigned, and then all other roles were randomized.

[Mr.Person]

Frelock's post is FUCKING suspicious!!!

We should at least check to see if there's another Frodo-Sam pair out there.  If there's not, then it's guaranteed that SC and Errol are the real thing.

Fishing for the real frodo eh?  SCUM

Vote Frelock

Sure, I'm suspicious for wanting to preserve whatever potential power roles we have, versus taking a worse-than-random shot at a possible Nazgul.  SC's brilliant for revealing his role, but I'm scum for asking people to do the same?  And how are you so sure that Errol isn't the real Frodo, hmm?  They don't even have to roleclaim in public; a simple PM to someone else they semi-trust (from the Sam, of course, not the Frodo) would do.  Personally, I think SC is suspicious for his claim.  I think he might be a nazgul trying to lynch a drunk hobbit, so there's less people to pass the ring off to.  I'm not sure enough about that to cast my vote for him, however.

But let's say SC isn't lying.  Sure, Frodo's got the ring, and he's got his 50% chance too.  So, three nights in, he's at a 12.5% chance of continuing to evade the Nazgul, while they attack a known power role, simultaneously keeping the town:scum ratio high, and us with only one power role who can actually investigate people (assuming they don't kill off Web tonight, since Sam will be gone).  Meanwhile, the spy keeps investigating people to turn up who is a hobbit and who isn't.  When Frodo's out of the picture, they start killing known hobbits until they get the ring.

The idea of forming a town base around a real Frodo isn't bad, but I don't believe it's worth the cost of losing a real Sam.  If you are a Sam, then do what townies do: try to stay alive and try to find the scum.  The only difference is that you have a partner whom you must "protect" every night.  If you can't trust him, fine; protect him anyways.  Keep your head down and your eyes open.  However, the cat's out of the bag now, and we'll see where this goes.

It would be stupid of another Sam and Frodo pair to reveal themselves right now, if there even is another pair. I guess we'll find out tonight/early tomorrow.

Still, I'll no lynch

[Pandarsenic]

I'll vote Servant Corps, because theoretically, that would give us the same information as lynching Errol if he's correct, right? But, this will throw off Servant Corps' theoretical Nazgul Xanatos Gambit.

Correct me if I'm wrong, please. Immediately.

Doing some yardwork, back in perhaps an hour.

[Alexhans]

mmm... Not much time but I agree with Pandar here...

unvote, vote Servant Corps

[Org]

Doesnt work. Than we are just killing Sam.

[Pandarsenic]

It's the same thing if Servant Corps is the real Sam.

... Wait a second. Org, how would you know if they are or aren't legit?

[Servant Corps]

I'll see if I can correct you, if only to explain further about the strategy.

I know that I am pro-town. I do not know what role I have though. If you lynch me, there is a 100% chance that I'll be dead (as opposed to the 50% chance of me being dead if Errol gets lynched). If I roleflip Sam, then that means that Errol is Frodo, and the plan to form a town base around Errol can continue as normal. If I roleflip Drunk though, you know that Errol isn't Frodo, but you will not know if he is either a Drunk or a Nazgul Agent.

I know that I am pro-town, but I do not know if I am a Drunk or Sam. Lynching me will not reveal a Nazgul Agent. I do not know Errol's role though, so there is a chance that he could be a Drunk, Frodo, or Nazgul Agent.

If you lynch Errol, and I fail in my protection, you would know Errol's true role. If you find out he is a drunk, then it means I am either a Drunk or Nazgul Agent. If you find out that he is a Nazgul Agent though, that would likely confirm me as a Drunk, and thus allows for a town base to be formed.

[Pandarsenic]

That all collapses if you're a Nazgul agent, though, which you refuse to consider to be possible.

[Servant Corps]

Well, I do consider it to be possible, but I'm trying to show that the chances of me being seen as a Nazgul Agent would only exist if:
1) I fail in the protection of Errol.
2) Errol roleflips as a Drunk.

There are other different situations that would occur, but if this event happens, then it is evidence that I am either a Drunk or a Nazgul Agent. I will continue to try to assist the town, even if the Town is suspicious of me. But if that doesn't happen though, that Errol does not roleflip as a Drunk, and instead roleflips as a Nazgul Agent, then I'm cleared.

[Mr.Person]

Or the opposite is true and we lynch you and then Errol is inconclusive. Why should we pick one of you guys over the other?

[Pandarsenic]

But... don't we get the same information if we lynch you? But for Errol instead?

[Little]

CHANGE MY VOTE!

I unvote webadict since there is no solid evidence on him, and instead vote for:
Errol, because of Servant Corps' plan. It seems like it could work.

[Servant Corps]

Pandrasenic: I'm too tired at the moment, an I have to go to sleep, so this will be my last post here, likely before the end of the Day.

Killing me means that, no matter what I roleflip, I will die. Killing Errol, on the other hand, would mean I die if Errol is Frodo, and in all other cases, Errol dies and we learn of Errol's role.

If you kill me, and I am not Sam, I will roleflip as a Drunk (since I know I am pro-Town, even though I can't prove it). Errol's fate would therefore be inconclusive if you lynch me, he could be a Drunk or a Nazgul Agent. I am not sure who Errol is though, so, if you lynch him and I fail to protect him, you'll find out if he is in fact a Drunk, a Nazgul Agent, or Frodo. There is a 33% chance of him being a Nazgul Agent, which is much better than, say, a 26% chance via random lynch.

So, this is, I guess, a Nazgul Xanatos Gambit. I tried my best to lay down my arguments, I just hope other people understand.

* Servant Corps shrugs.

[Pandarsenic]

Except we don't know you're pro-town which means it's the same chance for us.

[Errol]

Hoo boys, this one turned up to be really interesting. Please be aware that I'm rather impulsive and tend to get angry rather fast - this time, over Servant Corps because he didn't wait for feedback about his plan.

As far as I see this it's 5-3. I am still uncertain whether Servant Corps is a Nazgul or the real Sam (as I elaborated, his plan is very fishy and uncertain in success), but he could really just try to help. And, if I get lynched and turn out to be a drunk, please do get him lynched or scanned or something.

As I see it, webadict should scan him, or me. As he claims Strider, if he gets human as a result, he's boozed up. But in case of the other results... that would be uncertain too. Does the drunk strider get the same result every time he scans a player?

I am claiming being pro-town. And I stand by my vote.

As by analysis... I think there are two, or maybe three Nazguls. Perhaps the spy is not even in the game, as three nazguls plus spy would be too weighted towards the scum. So I think there are a total of three scummies here.

So... If I get lynched, we have more clarity... but I still think I'm having a Nazgul as partner.

//e: Random statistic, but SC waited 7 hours after suggesting the plan to me before posting it in public.

//e2: His plan is even more suspicious after learning Sam dies when using his power. There's no way you'd sacrifice yourself willingly in this way. Unless you know you're not in risk.