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[Org]

No. Unvote.

[Pandarsenic]

Org does this a lot.

Hey, assuming we have an Exterminator and an Agent-Seeker, what's our chance of hitting someone dangerous to the town with the first-day lynch?

[Frelock]

Assuming that you believe that an Agent-Seeker is dangerous to the town (they don't take the agent with them, if I recall correctly), and that there are 4 dopps again, then we have a 40% chance.  If the Agent-Seeker isn't dangerous, it's a 33.333% chance.  26.667% if there's no exterminator.

Actually, those odds aren't too bad.  Anyone have any FoS's?

[Pandarsenic]

Org's accusation, Josh's immediate defense of inaluct, inaluct's having been immediately defended by Josh.

Agent Seeker doesn't remove the agent but he kills any townie he meets until then. Not sure about Dopps.

[Mephansteras]

Agent-seeker will double-kill on a Dopp. Not so good for him, but good for the town.

[Zai]

Actually, the Agent Seeker kills those it targets if they aren't an Agent. So it's really like a slightly more town-friendly Exterminator, in that its goal is ultimately to leave.

[PRE-POST EDIT:] Ninja'd by Pandar, effectively.

[JoshuaFH]

I wasn't defending Inaluct, I just don't like people being attacked against for fallacious reasons.

[Pandarsenic]

Assuming that you believe that an Agent-Seeker is dangerous to the town (they don't take the agent with them, if I recall correctly), and that there are 4 dopps again, then we have a 40% chance.  If the Agent-Seeker isn't dangerous, it's a 33.333% chance.  26.667% if there's no exterminator.

Actually, those odds aren't too bad.  Anyone have any FoS's?

33.333% chance, then, since Agent-Seeker may kamikaze dopps. Should we go for a kill or should we no-lynch?

I wasn't defending Inaluct, I just don't like people being attacked against for fallacious reasons.

Fair enough; I'd likely do the same.

[Frelock]

Agent Seeker doesn't remove the agent but he kills any townie he meets until then. Not sure about Dopps.

Ah, sounds good.  Well, with those odds, let's try accusing someone based on pure chance.  Random.org gives me 5, which is ... me.  Ummm, maybe not the best of ideas after all... 

No Lynch

[Mephansteras]

For reference:

Living players (which is all at this point)

Archangel

Beacon80

chaoticjosh

Cheeetar

Flintus10

Frelock

inaluct

Kashyyk

Masami Phonix

NUKE9.13

Org

Pandarsenic

TheToeBighter98

webadict

Zaithemaster

[Frelock]

Ah, the alphabetized list.  I was going off the list on the first post.  I'll still keep my no lynch vote, though.

[webadict]

So... I'm gonna go with Archangel, based on only circumstantial evidence at best, and the Gambler's Fallacy, which, surprisingly enough, works fairly well, based also on circumstantial evidence.

Also, ToeBighter might be next on my list, should Archangel give me a good reason. Though, what's good reason?

Also, we're going to lynch today, whether ya'll like it or not. Because the Dopps control the scene until we kill one of them. Also, remember that they know each other, whereas we have few leads. Therefore, look out for people who protect other people *ahem* chaoticjosh *ahem*. I'm going to do my best, and, for all intensive purposes, I'm assuming I'll die tonight, so I'll do as much as I can today.

I WILL find a Dopp today. Believe you me. I will. My entire purpose will be to find one.

[Servant Corps]

Actually, the Agent Seeker kills those it targets if they aren't an Agent. So it's really like a slightly more town-friendly Exterminator, in that its goal is ultimately to leave.

Well, the goal is to talk to the Agent. If the Town wins, then FBI Agents will swarm in and the Agent Seeker can talk to them. So, there's another way the Agent Seeker can win. However, the Agent Seeker also has to stay alive, and that's a big problem...

[Pandarsenic]

Actually, the Gambler's Fallacy works reasonably well in here.

Why?

Because I don't know about you, but I would manipulate Mafia role roll results a little so that people who'd been Mafia many times in a row were not or people who hadn't been in my memory were as a GM, even though I assign through random.org.

[webadict]

Also, I would like to take this time to present a very clear argument for everyone:

I'm the Disciple of Truth. I will prove it during this day, but I'm going to find a Doppelganger with it. I will scan based on the lowest post count. I will find you, Doppelgangers. I will kill you. Every last one of you. My death will make sure.

This is why I'll be dead tomorrow. Of course, it'd certainly be a waste, since if I fail, all power roles will contact that particular person, therefore giving the Town a solid Town base to begin with.

Hence, I plan to make a game-breaking strategy. Therefore, I'd like to ask: Is there a ghost? I would certainly like to get in touch with you... And lynch you! No offense, but you're better dead than alive.

Medium, I will give you the names of all people to have contacted me before my death, and therefore give a fairly solid base. In fact, if there's a Medium, I would like to talk to you, too.

Also, I DARE you to call me a doppelganger, Dopps. Come on. You know you wanna do it... Would I really lie about this? It'd be a flawed strategy, yes? Unless you have a Mind Shield. In which case, I'd know

Therefore, I'll prove my Townie alignment, and I would ask all power roles to contact me AFTER I have proven myself good. Doing so now is simply stupid, as you have no idea if I'm being a really clever Dopp/Alien/Robot thingy from Mars.

So, who wants a good scanning? If you think you should be scanned, I wouldn't mind a quick pm. I need to know some things...

Actually, the Gambler's Fallacy works reasonably well in here.

Why?

Because I don't know about you, but I would manipulate Mafia role roll results a little so that people who'd been Mafia many times in a row were not or people who hadn't been in my memory were as a GM, even though I assign through random.org.

The only times I switched roles was when Squeegy was given the Sheriff role in DF Mafia. And only that once.