Well... I guess this fort was just destined to fail no matter what.
Started a fort in a flat, calm, cold woodland area bordering a mountain containing a brook. Seemed absolutely perfect minus the freezing in winter, which was the first source of facepalms when injured dwarves started dying. Double facepalm when I ran out of booze.
Next facepalm came when I found out that if water is listed as 'above ground' even though it's in a sealed building, it will still freeze.
After successfully rerouting the river underground and setting up a proper underground well, without having to go into the caverns, I thought I was all set. I got a breeding pair of lions, gorillas and jaguars, plus some crocs, all stolen from the elves. I also had a military of 30 strong, poorly equipped but hoping sheer numbers would help until I got my metal industry working.
Sadly, the forces that be just didn't want this force to thrive. In year 4, I went from 80 dwarves to 60 when 4 goblin ambushes appeared inside my fort in less than a season. Facepalm. My grief-stricken military are all on the edge of tantrumming, and one even actually bashed my broker in the face with his shield, killing him. Face. Palm.
Then I get a siege. One squad of goblins. I take care of them rather easily. Shortly after, they send 2 squads, plus a squad of ogres. We barely fight them off with the help of the human caravan. I start building a wall around my entrance.
Then, in year 5, another siege. I didn't get to count exactly how many squads they had, but the list of invaders filled 4 pages. They proceeded to slaughter every single one of my dwarves. My head hit the desk, and now I'm debating whether to reclaim or embark somewhere far, far away from the goblins.