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[webadict]

I don't think we should pass up this chance to lynch somebody guys!

You're right, but if we miss the lynch today, we could lose, but the same will be said about tomorrow. Problem is, we have to get the lynch right today or tomorrow, either way.

No matter what, any mistake causes us to lose.

[JoshuaFH]

So, you're saying that statistically, we have a better chance lynching someone tomorrow than today?

[webadict]

Not necessarily, but that is technically true. We need to lynch correctly, either today or tomorrow, but if we fail, we will lose.

I'm saying that voting No Lynch today is a very bad move, but lynching a Townie is (More than likely) an auto-lose.

[Mephansteras]

The day ends with a vote not to lynch anyone. You head off to your homes, carefully watching the shadows and jumping at every sound.



And that's Day 4. Night roles, send me you PMs!

[Mephansteras]

Night 4 is still going on, and may be extended due to an unusual situation:

Looks like bob_smith is no longer a member on the forums, so I'm going to have to assume he dropped out.

Anyone willing to take his place?

[Servant Corps]

People who already played are disqualified, correct?

[Mephansteras]

Yeah, I'm afraid so. The Dead Chat area makes too much information available.

[webadict]

Weird. Anyone know why?

[Kashyyk]

nope

[Servant Corps]

If you can't find a replacement, just modkill bob_smith or control him as an NPC.

[Mephansteras]

Yeah, I figured out a solution. Random action! Works out ok with the night role actions I got anyway.

Night 4 is closed, I'll do the write-ups and get everything sent out in a bit.

[JoshuaFH]

I don't like where this is goin...

[Mephansteras]

You slowly make your way to the town hall, almost afraid to discover who the latest victim of the doppelgangers was. When you get there, you take a quick head count. bob_smith is obviously missing, so you head off towards his house.

Once there, you discover that it is a veritable armory of guns, ammunition, and explosives. Looking around, it becomes apparent that he was an aggressive war veteran who went out hunting the doppelgangers at night. This time, he didn't make it back.

Discouraged, you head back to the town hall. Your time is running out. You must find the doppelgangers soon, or they'll end up having you all for dinner.



So, yeah, bob_smith was the Aggressive War Vet. Since I had no idea who he'd attack, I rolled randomly. Worked out pretty well, story-wise. But most of you will have to wait until the game ends to read it.

All right, Day 5 is up. It will go until 5pm pacific, Friday. There are 9 players, 4 of which are Dopps. If the town does not lynch a dopp today, the game might very well end with their victory tomorrow.

[Masami Phonix]

So what are the numbers now?  Are we doomed, or do we have one more shot?

[Frelock]

All right, Day 5 is up. It will go until 5pm pacific, Friday. There are 9 players, 4 of which are Dopps. If the town does not lynch a dopp today, the game might very well end with their victory tomorrow.

So in other words, we have to correctly identify a dopp each day, or prevent the dopps from killing each night.  If we mess up on this lynching, we're doomed.  It will be a close thing, but drama always works out in the end.

Assuming a correct lynching each day, and a successful dopp night-kill each night (as these are the only ways anyone can die, unless we have a witch about).  Table is numbers at the start of the day.
Day     Townies    Dopps     Total
5         5              4             9
6         4              3             7
7         3              2             5
8         2              1             3      Town wins!

Naturally, if the doctor picks right for once, this changes quite a bit.

I just realized, there has to be a doctor about.  If bob_smith was the AWV, and he was unable to kill this turn, that means his target must have been protected.  All is not lost if we miss a lynch, so long as the dopps missed their kill the night before.  Today, though, we have to get it right.