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[Raphite1]

I'm six years into a fort on a 6x6 map that has a couple of extreme cliffs, a heavily forested river valley, and a cave that had some Antmen until they swarmed and died. I have a max pop of 80 (though my current population is ~95), have the Orc mod, and modded in a custom megabeast with [FLIER] and [AMBUSHPREDATOR].

I got sieged by Orcs my second year, and afterwards fought off two or three goblin ambushes. it was great, constant action! Two or three years ago, though, the action simply stopped. The best I get now is a kobold thief. Where have all the orcs and goblins gone? They found me just fine before, and it's not like our small skirmishes should have decimated their numbers.

I considered the possibility that a goblin ambush or an [AMBUSHPREDATOR] megabeast were lurking somewhere on the map, so I sent a squad to do a couple laps, but they found nothing.

Any ideas? The best I can think of right now is,
1) Goblin ambush or megabeast sitting somewhere and bad luck just keeps me from finding it.
2) An [AMBUSHPREDATOR] megabeast is FLYING somewhere on the map, and won't come down and be found. (But wouldn't I have gotten a notice when it appeared on the map border, at least?)
3) Part of a human caravan has been bugged and stuck in my depot for years, even though other caravans have used it normally since. Maybe it's somehow related to the disappearing hostiles?
4) Some world event coincidentally wiped out both the orcs and the goblins? Is this even possible in the mere 6 years my fort has been around?

[LegacyCWAL]

It's possible that they gave up, so to speak.  I've noticed that after a while, the goblins stop bothering to send sieges, or only send tiny ones.  It might get better in a few years.

[Tormy]

It's possible that they gave up, so to speak.  I've noticed that after a while, the goblins stop bothering to send sieges, or only send tiny ones.  It might get better in a few years.

Yeah, I've also noticed this...I am not sure that what is causing this, especially because I haven't noticed this in all of my fortresses, so this must be a "random bug".

[Jim Groovester]

Try rapidly increasing your wealth. I notice that as soon as I start churning out exceptional steel armor on a massive scale, the goblins send sieges every season without fail. When I'm finished making steel, they don't come so often.

[Tormy]

Try rapidly increasing your wealth. I notice that as soon as I start churning out exceptional steel armor on a massive scale, the goblins send sieges every season without fail. When I'm finished making steel, they don't come so often.

Huh, that is weird...so you say that making massive amounts of armors has something to do with the current siege system? 
..or basically you meant wealth? That might be true, but again, I don't know...in some of my fortresses, the goblins will invade me quite often, even if the wealth of the fortress is on the same level for years....in some other fortresses, they just won't invade after a "point", only very rarely.

[Jay]

I had a fort that went on for 20 years with 4 sieges a year.
It eventually crumbled due to completely mining out the mountain and hence running out of metal bolts for my army of marksdwarves and being overrun by crossbow-enemies.
This was a no-trap fort, you see.
And I had given up on melting down those massive amounts of goblin armor for iron.  I expected to actually get a caravan at some point where I could trade it away for far more bolts then I could get from just melting the decorated crap down.  That is, in fact, possible, unless you get four sieges a year and hence the traders can't come due to said sieges.

It's all tied in with your wealth/population.
Not enough wealth growth, you won't get any sieges. (Pretty sure it's tied into the actual growth, anyway...  Might just be on raw numbers.)
Not enough population to begin with (80 dwarves for vanilla goblins), you won't get any sieges either.