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Author Topic: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.  (Read 1585 times)

Savok

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[40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« on: February 21, 2009, 01:27:37 am »

For the last several embarks, I have not gotten more than two males in the starting seven. I started noticing this on what I think was my first embark in 40d, and was definitely my first in which I count sex numbers.

According to my calculations, the probability of such an event happening is about ten percent less than 1/30000.
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numerobis

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2009, 05:31:23 am »

The probability of having <= 2 males on an embark with 7 dwarves is:
((7 choose 2) + (7 choose 1) + (7 choose 0)) / (2^7)

Ask google what that is and it computes 0.2265625

To get that to fall to 1/30,000 means you started up about 7 fortresses.
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Savok

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2009, 10:52:51 am »

You're right. That's exactly how I calculated it.
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numerobis

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2009, 12:24:31 pm »

I wonder how many fortresses have been created, in the aggregate across all DF players.
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Vigilant

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2009, 01:54:09 am »

I had this happen once as well. Six women and one male.
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Paulus Fahlstrom

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2009, 05:00:30 pm »

Something you may want to look at as well is the year things are starting in.

I'm currently running a fortress that has 52 dwarves in it. There is a significant gender disparity. 34 are female, 18 male and none have died. With only seven dwarves the odds of it happening like that are small but easily within the realms of probability. However, with 52 dwarves having such a significant difference may be indicative of something else.

I don't even know where one could look at this sort of thing in the code, but it's entirely possible that a racial 50/50 gender balance is NOT implemented. Having a female heavy gender ratio would help ensure species survival better than the other way around or even better than 50/50, at least in theory. Keep in mind that it's not unheard of for such things to happen. China currently has a gender imbalance, even if it is socially caused. And from experience it's not uncommon for smaller geographic areas to have such problems for various reasons. I've heard of areas of Brazil where the ratio is 9:1 Female:Male. Talk about crazy stuff going on.

So keep in mind it may not be a bug, but rather a 'feature'.
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Variance

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2009, 05:11:54 pm »

The game should just be choosing genders randomly. If it's a 1 in 30,000 chance, then you may just be the lucky 30,000th winner.

Something you may want to look at as well is the year things are starting in.

I'm currently running a fortress that has 52 dwarves in it. There is a significant gender disparity. 34 are female, 18 male and none have died. With only seven dwarves the odds of it happening like that are small but easily within the realms of probability. However, with 52 dwarves having such a significant difference may be indicative of something else.

I don't even know where one could look at this sort of thing in the code, but it's entirely possible that a racial 50/50 gender balance is NOT implemented. Having a female heavy gender ratio would help ensure species survival better than the other way around or even better than 50/50, at least in theory. Keep in mind that it's not unheard of for such things to happen. China currently has a gender imbalance, even if it is socially caused. And from experience it's not uncommon for smaller geographic areas to have such problems for various reasons. I've heard of areas of Brazil where the ratio is 9:1 Female:Male. Talk about crazy stuff going on.

So keep in mind it may not be a bug, but rather a 'feature'.
Dwarves don't have a specific determinant for a gender imbalance, because it would either require them to have their own code for it that differs from the norm, and there certainly isn't anything that stands out for abnormal gender selection, or every creature would need its own gender ratios, which also aren't specified, unless I'm overlooking some hermaphroditic creatures. Either way, dwarves have no special code for it.
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PTTG??

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2009, 05:53:09 pm »

Nonetheless, I have had similar problems myself. I suspect that the RNG may be wonky.

It makes especially poor sense when you think that a Dwarven Fortress would be a military thing, anyway, so you'd probably get more male Dwarves if anything.
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Variance

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2009, 09:16:58 pm »

It is kind of funny that considering that DF is more of a medieval game than anything, there is almost total equality in what gender can do what. Sure, the ability for any gender to have any job and equal strength/toughness levels is probably just a result of Toady not wanting or caring about implementing gender differences, but it's kind of fun to think of it as a kind of inadvertent feature.
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Savok

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Re: [40d to 40d9] Few embark males. Probably not a bug.
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2009, 12:15:05 am »

Something you may want to look at as well is the year things are starting in.

I'm currently running a fortress that has 52 dwarves in it. There is a significant gender disparity. 34 are female, 18 male and none have died. With only seven dwarves the odds of it happening like that are small but easily within the realms of probability. However, with 52 dwarves having such a significant difference may be indicative of something else.

I don't even know where one could look at this sort of thing in the code, but it's entirely possible that a racial 50/50 gender balance is NOT implemented. Having a female heavy gender ratio would help ensure species survival better than the other way around or even better than 50/50, at least in theory. Keep in mind that it's not unheard of for such things to happen. China currently has a gender imbalance, even if it is socially caused. And from experience it's not uncommon for smaller geographic areas to have such problems for various reasons. I've heard of areas of Brazil where the ratio is 9:1 Female:Male. Talk about crazy stuff going on.

So keep in mind it may not be a bug, but rather a 'feature'.

The probability of 18 or less males out of 52 dwarves, chosen with equal randomness, is approximately 0.99%, the probability of exactly 18 dwarves being over half that.
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