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Author Topic: Oregon Trail  (Read 3503 times)

profit

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #30 on: February 20, 2009, 02:12:46 am »

I think the problem with simulating an economy (or a real ecology, for that matter) is that once the simulation starts, you're going to have to hope it stays within game-viable (playable) parameters.  It's fully possible that a randomly generated economy crashes and burns within a few years, depending on what civs have what resources, the price of goods, and how wars work out . . . which makes things rough on fortresses depending on trade.  A crashed economy might wipe out world trade almost altogether, taking civilizations with it.
This sounds familiar somehow. I guess there will have to be ways for them to restart the economy in the game so after a large crash, things start to climb up again. Until they crash again.

This would simulate the rise and fall, and restructuring of empires rather well. Plus, add in the fact that it would add some challenge (how WILL you manage your fort through tough economic times?) to the game which is what people always seem to be clamoring for.

A free market, unburdened by government or militaristic entanglement will ALWAYS recover.

Considering forts are basically self contained now I can only see these economic hardships as a bonus...

Times are good? Sell your booze and crafts for a bunch of money...  Times are tough? Buy a bunch of raw materials with stored money and expand your empire/industry/farming operations.

As long as you NEVER give dwarves entitlement programs like social security or welfare, they will never become lazy and always work for the good of society as it is in their own self interest to eat and sleep with a roof over their head.  Course.... One noble giving them money when they don't work, or letting them not pay their mortgage and the entire system will collapse.

Possibly related -> http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1039849853&play=1

« Last Edit: February 20, 2009, 02:16:10 am by profit »
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Mods and the best utilities for dwarf fortress
Community Mods and utilities thread.

Mr.Dwarf

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #31 on: February 20, 2009, 08:23:44 am »

Just an Idea for the reasons to add this as well as the normal fortress embark option:
ever wanted to settle in one of the inner mountains? the ones where the embark option is faded and unselectable? Now you can. All you have to do is navigate your caravan through the mountains
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Hectonkhyres

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #32 on: February 20, 2009, 08:50:11 am »

Profit appears to be making the case that President Obama is a dirty elf.

Hm. He is tall, charismatic, has no facial hair of any kind, furthers socialist and environmental agendas, and (to the best of my knowledge) has never set a kitten on fire even once in his life. I'm going to have to support Profit's statement on this one.

No doubt we will learn that his next welfare plan involves fifty bins of rope reed thread.
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And now the thread is about starfish porn.
...originally read that as 'perpetual motion pants' and thought how could I have missed this??

Footkerchief

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2009, 08:52:48 am »

No doubt we will learn that his next welfare plan involves fifty bins of rope reed thread.

The Cloth Baleout.

Next he's going to put all the military's funding toward the Forest Service.
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Granite26

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2009, 09:30:30 am »

seeing as how it's been mentioned in the future of the fortress thread...
Sorry I didn't read through the 48 page thread before tossing my idea out. I wanted to get it down before I forgot.
Wait, what?  You don't feel the need to look at what's already planned before you start making suggestions?  Your time more valuable than the dev's, then?

Chthonic

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2009, 12:42:47 pm »

A free market, unburdened by government or militaristic entanglement will ALWAYS recover.

Or everyone will starve to death and the world will become a wasteland devoid of intelligent life.

I would argue that while the free market is robust, it is not un-killable . . . push it too far away from its equilibrium (the "attractor" of a complex network) and it may find a new, less comfortable equilibrium.  Dead is an equilbrium.

The point, as it relates to DF, is that the economy in DF is bound to be less complex than in the real world and therefore a bit more fragile unless the invisible hand of Toady props it up.
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Rysith

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #36 on: February 20, 2009, 01:27:44 pm »

I think the problem with simulating an economy (or a real ecology, for that matter) is that once the simulation starts, you're going to have to hope it stays within game-viable (playable) parameters.  It's fully possible that a randomly generated economy crashes and burns within a few years, depending on what civs have what resources, the price of goods, and how wars work out . . . which makes things rough on fortresses depending on trade.  A crashed economy might wipe out world trade almost altogether, taking civilizations with it.
This sounds familiar somehow. I guess there will have to be ways for them to restart the economy in the game so after a large crash, things start to climb up again. Until they crash again.

This would simulate the rise and fall, and restructuring of empires rather well. Plus, add in the fact that it would add some challenge (how WILL you manage your fort through tough economic times?) to the game which is what people always seem to be clamoring for.

We've shown that a single fortress can easily supply the basic needs (food, clothing, booze) for itself, so even with the addition of "tough economic times", the worst that I could see would be die-back and weakness to outside invasion. As long as settlements can supply their basic needs independently, you shouldn't have everyone dying off, which is fine. Droughts hit, larger cities starve, and the civilization rebuilds itself from the outposts. Or gets overrun by elves.

The problem that I can see developing is the typical dwarf fortress avalanche of crafts, where supply greatly exceeds demand everywhere. There would need to be some kind of use for things that weren't food/booze/clothing, and those things would have to wear out (otherwise, crafts become worthless). There might be something like "sites supporting 100 or more creatures require x crafts per year" or something like that that could work as an abstraction, but there might still be enormous oversupply issues. On the other hand, if civilizations could have resource shortfalls that could give them another reason to go to war with their neighbors, rather than pulling an infinite amount of star rubies from off-screen.

To risk thread derailment, the problem with free markets is that they are fundamentally greedy algorithms (favoring short-term gains for individual actors), which are efficient and easy but often non-optimal, especially over the whole group. In situations with limited resources and many actors, they also tend towards a single actor monopolizing all the resources. I don't think that a truly free market would work well in DF, simply because players wouldn't put up with being put in the position that a small late entrant in a 200-year old market would be put into. I think that the economy model would probably want to be similar to the late middle ages, with feudal regulation of a "free" market. Merchants set their own prices, but the King sets the taxes, can demand tribute, mandate that X be made for the common good, and so on.

For bonus points, make the economy flexible enough that it can head off towards other forms of government (constitutional monarchy, republic, anarchy, etc. to choose some historical examples) if the nobles are abusing their power too much. That's probably a bit too complicated, though, since it would require modeling a bunch more stuff.
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ScreamingDoom

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #37 on: February 20, 2009, 07:27:39 pm »

To risk thread derailment, the problem with free markets is that they are fundamentally greedy algorithms (favoring short-term gains for individual actors), which are efficient and easy but often non-optimal, especially over the whole group.

While this is certainly true, it is often the case that a true optimal condition is impossible to determine. The free market acts like evolution in that, over time, each individual species will get closer to optimal for whatever niche they're involved in. While they may never actually BE optimal, it definitely dramatically reduces the search space needed to find a "good enough" solution. Free market economics and evolutionary science have much in common.

Quote
In situations with limited resources and many actors, they also tend towards a single actor monopolizing all the resources.

Only for short periods of time or in cases where outside control/support is given (as in the case of patents, copyright, and protectionist policies). Under a truly free market, the monopoly lasts only as long as it takes a competitor to develop something better or a new method of utilizing previously underutilized resources that can fill the same economic niche. The more limited and controlled a resource is, the greater the pressure to develop an alternative.

Quote
I don't think that a truly free market would work well in DF, simply because players wouldn't put up with being put in the position that a small late entrant in a 200-year old market would be put into.

I also agree that a truly free market wouldn't work well in DF, but for a different reason. Free markets are an optimization algorithm for huge search spaces; the DF economic model is too simplistic for this to work well. Making things abstract would probably be better, at least until/unless more complicated economic combinations  are provided.
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forsaken1111

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2009, 01:57:03 am »

seeing as how it's been mentioned in the future of the fortress thread...
Sorry I didn't read through the 48 page thread before tossing my idea out. I wanted to get it down before I forgot.
Wait, what?  You don't feel the need to look at what's already planned before you start making suggestions?  Your time more valuable than the dev's, then?

No, I don't feel my time is more valuable than the dev's. I'm not sure where you got that. I did not feel like spending half an hour reading through a 48 page thread, however. I know full well that if I post, and my idea has been presented and argued many times before, it would quickly fall down to the bottom of the forum with little attention. I felt that it was a rather good idea, and I wanted to write and post it before I forgot about it. If you really expect everyone to page through 48 pages of posts before opening any new topic, you're delusional. Perhaps some people do it, but I didn't and I won't.

Then we have the fact that the thread you seem to assume I would read is not even IN the suggestion section. Why would I expect suggestions to be there? Why would I even THINK to check it before posting a suggestion? Is this an unwritten rule, to go check the FOTF thread before posting anything, as it may have been already mentioned! I wasn't aware of this rule, so you can keep your snarky comments out of my thread.
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Footkerchief

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #39 on: February 21, 2009, 02:28:31 am »

Then we have the fact that the thread you seem to assume I would read is not even IN the suggestion section. Why would I expect suggestions to be there? Why would I even THINK to check it before posting a suggestion? Is this an unwritten rule, to go check the FOTF thread before posting anything, as it may have been already mentioned! I wasn't aware of this rule, so you can keep your snarky comments out of my thread.

It's not a rule by any stretch, and I prefer to have Suggestions threads following up on ideas from FOTF rather than the FOTF thread getting cluttered with tangential discussions.  So don't worry about it.
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forsaken1111

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #40 on: February 21, 2009, 02:34:37 am »

Then we have the fact that the thread you seem to assume I would read is not even IN the suggestion section. Why would I expect suggestions to be there? Why would I even THINK to check it before posting a suggestion? Is this an unwritten rule, to go check the FOTF thread before posting anything, as it may have been already mentioned! I wasn't aware of this rule, so you can keep your snarky comments out of my thread.

It's not a rule by any stretch, and I prefer to have Suggestions threads following up on ideas from FOTF rather than the FOTF thread getting cluttered with tangential discussions.  So don't worry about it.

Thanks for the clarification. :)
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Granite26

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #41 on: February 21, 2009, 10:40:06 am »

Then we have the fact that the thread you seem to assume I would read is not even IN the suggestion section. Why would I expect suggestions to be there? Why would I even THINK to check it before posting a suggestion?

Doing a search for "Oregon Trail" (the correct spelling) gives 12ish previous mentions in this forum.  I wasn't trying to say you should have searched other threads, just your 'I didn't bother to search FotF' kinda made me think that you hadn't search here either, especially given my knowledge of the previous threads.

Davion

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #42 on: February 21, 2009, 05:41:09 pm »

Dwarven Trail will have to wait until Toady codes dysentery into the game. ;)
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Felblood

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #43 on: February 21, 2009, 10:40:28 pm »

The Oregon trail has come up in a lot of discussions, but I'm yet to find a dedicated thread for it. Looks like it's time we had a new one.

Economics and caravans are a prerequisite, and they are non-trivial, but they are in the design docs.

A free market tends to reach a stable equilibrium, in the abscence of outside force, just like a physical object. Under some conditions the only viable equilibrium is "everyone is dead" or "the government has collapsed and been replaced with a more stable system of tyranny.", extensive work will need to go in to prevent that from being the most common outcome of world gen.

Even in DF military action, infighting, rapine economics and natural disasters (dragons are a natural disaster, right?) will exert temporary pressures on economies, that will push their numbers into flux. Your population only needs to dip down to zero once.

That said, the Dwarven Trail:

I'm not sure if founding a city should be a new embark option, or just something you should be able to do in adventurer mode. There are some clear problems with letting the player gather six followers, pile up a bunch of stolen goods, and declare this to be the site of his new fortress.

What if he and his followers are from different civs? Who becomes patron to the new city? What happens to the foreigner dwarves and the goblins? Do they still move in, or do they wander off?
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Morlark

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Re: Oregan Trail
« Reply #44 on: February 22, 2009, 02:58:43 am »

Is there a plan to modify number of wagons after embark? Do not you think that it is weird that you get one wagon (or none if you are "lucky" enough) no matter how many thinks you bring?

I believe it's planned. It used to be that you got multiple wagons at embark, depending on how much stuff you brought along. People basically just exploited it to get extra wood though, so Toady removed it. I think Toady said he's going to bring it back some time in the future, possibly as part of the Caravan Arc, and that you'll have to pay for all the stuff you bring, including the barrels that your booze come in and however many caravans you choose to bring.
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