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Author Topic: Smullyan killer (game is over)  (Read 7675 times)

a1s

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Re: Smullyan killer (Night 2)
« Reply #30 on: February 01, 2009, 06:05:03 pm »
after much talking, no one was killed, and the sun has set.

it is now night please send in your actions.
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Quote from: Fluffe9911 on March 08, 2023, 02:45:47 pm
I tried to play chess but two of my opponents were playing competitive checkers as a third person walked in with Game of Thrones in hand confused cause they thought this was the book club.

a1s

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #31 on: February 02, 2009, 06:51:34 pm »
This is taking a really long time...  >:(

anyway, the sun rises.
And Psycho Jelly's is dead.
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Quote from: Fluffe9911 on March 08, 2023, 02:45:47 pm
I tried to play chess but two of my opponents were playing competitive checkers as a third person walked in with Game of Thrones in hand confused cause they thought this was the book club.

webadict

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #32 on: February 02, 2009, 08:46:16 pm »
Well, dang. Now I have to take a 50-50 guess on who is the killer...

Is it Kashyyk or A_Fey_Dwarf...? Gar. While Kashyyk has no real pressing guilty measures to show him as a killer, A_Fey_Dwarf has done some empirical evidence to his conclusion. Curses.

What now? What do you others know? All I know is that one of you is a killer, and one of you is a knight. But how will I know who is what?

... Stupid logic games!

I got it...
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A_Fey_Dwarf

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #33 on: February 02, 2009, 09:30:16 pm »
I'll place my lynch vote on Kashyyk as him staying in the shadows and being inactive makes me suspicious that he is the killer.
I trust webadict as he has been upfront with his actions and seems to be organizing our actions to finding the killer.
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inaluct

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #34 on: February 02, 2009, 09:32:59 pm »
And so A_Fey_Dwarf tries to paint himself as innocent and garner favor with webadict by saying that he trusts him?

Will it work?
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webadict

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #35 on: February 02, 2009, 10:41:00 pm »
Quote from: inaluct on February 02, 2009, 09:32:59 pm
And so A_Fey_Dwarf tries to paint himself as innocent and garner favor with webadict by saying that he trusts him?

Will it work?
Well, I'd hope so. Right now, I'm in a "Game Show" puzzle. I had chosen to trust A_Fey_Dwarf on Day 1, hoping that I'd deduce the killer with brains. And here's how:

Now, since I'd chosen to trust him when there was a 33% that he was killer, there is still a 33% chance that he is the killer, since probable variance changed Kashyyk from 33% to 66%.

How ironic, seeing as how I find him to be 50% more likely to be the killer, given his activity, raising his chance to be 83%. Also, A_Fey_Dwarf's proof (I asked for the initial message he received from a1s, comparing it to mine, and finding it identical), raising it another 33%, to 89%. So, I'll have to choose Kashyyk, since it is statistically more likely.

I mean, it is possible for A_Fey_Dwarf to have rigged this, but it's only about a 1/9 chance.

I vote Kashyyk!
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Kashyyk

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #36 on: February 03, 2009, 02:03:49 pm »
trust me, 1/9 chances are not that unlikely. And anyway, I can only get on in the afternoons.
Just saying it was one of you two will not work as It will just look like i'm the killer, which I aint.

But then, Webadict might be the killer. This is too confusing!!!

All I want to say is, are you really sure it is me? Cos if you are not sure, and still lynch me then you have given the game to the Killer. I honestly suspect Webadictbut it is very convincing and A_Fey_Dwarf hasn't actually given any real evidence so, I don't know...
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webadict

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #37 on: February 03, 2009, 09:58:17 pm »
Don't worry. It isn't me, and I still have yet to figure if it's you or A_Fey_Dwarf. If it is him, he's fairly good at hiding it.
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Kashyyk

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #38 on: February 04, 2009, 02:08:23 pm »
wouldn't the killer have to be good at it? I mean, if we vote someone off now and they are the killer, a 1/2 chance, then we win. But if you lynch the other knight then the killer wins. I am not against voting but I just want it to be the right person.
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webadict

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #39 on: February 04, 2009, 04:21:32 pm »
Quote from: Kashyyk on February 04, 2009, 02:08:23 pm
wouldn't the killer have to be good at it? I mean, if we vote someone off now and they are the killer, a 1/2 chance, then we win. But if you lynch the other knight then the killer wins. I am not against voting but I just want it to be the right person.
You have to vote this round, because the killer wins if we don't and the killer wins if we choose wrong.
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Kashyyk

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #40 on: February 05, 2009, 05:56:50 am »
ok, i will go with my previous suspicions of A_Fey_Dwarf Although if you I get lynched we will lose the game.
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a1s

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #41 on: February 05, 2009, 06:09:24 am »
unfortunately the game is over... (as this day has been going for longer than 48 hours)
Spoiler: who won? (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: cast (click to show/hide)
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Quote from: Fluffe9911 on March 08, 2023, 02:45:47 pm
I tried to play chess but two of my opponents were playing competitive checkers as a third person walked in with Game of Thrones in hand confused cause they thought this was the book club.

Kashyyk

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #42 on: February 05, 2009, 06:55:09 am »
hehe. I almost won.
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Alexhans

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #43 on: February 05, 2009, 08:27:38 am »
You were the first i investigated Kashyyk!! I always suspected you! ;)
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Kashyyk

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Re: Smullyan killer (Day 2)
« Reply #44 on: February 05, 2009, 08:48:40 am »
glad to hear it. I feel really bad about kicking you off on the first night.
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