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[Omniarch]

I just wish we could see the list.

[Thndr]

It's probably just a to-do list, either for what he has planned for the future or what has been reported on the forums.

To Do: Make plant clothes non-edible. Dwarves keep eating Plump Helmet shirts off from other dwarves, causing them to become naked and thus insane

[Tormy]

I made this graph.  Now obviously neither curve is going to be accurate at all, but I would say this sets an upper and lower bound on the release date.

Well let's see:
Poly: ~01/02/09
Linear: ~09/24/09
Conclusion: The possible release date is [median value] -> ~05/27/09

I am still hoping that the new version will be released in april....

[ToonyMan]

I HOPE IT COMES OUT 12/20/08.

[R1ck]

Whoa, I did the exact same thing, except in Excel. Unfortunately right now it says that the next release will be on the last day of August simply due to the breaks and slow patches.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[Kishmond]

Ah, did you take into account breaks?

[Omniarch]

Whoa, I did the exact same thing, except in Excel. Unfortunately right now it says that the next release will be on the last day of August simply due to the breaks and slow patches.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Mine's in Excel too, just a newer version I guess.  I think after looking at the graph for a while, a combination of sinusoidal and linear regression would provide the most accurate estimate, but I don't think Excel does sinusoidal.

[Thndr]

Ah, did you take into account breaks?

Doesn't look like it, but statistically speaking it shouldn't matter once he has data that is influenced already by the breaks. Which it already has 2 months worth of break data collected.

The only outcome it would really effect would be the optimistic Poly output. The linear output would adjust as well, but not to as great of an effect, unless Toady takes a break that lasts well longer than the previous ones or hits a really nasty slow streak.

[Fourth Triad]

What happens if you graph the average of the 2 curves?

[Thndr]

What happens if you graph the average of the 2 curves?

Well let's see:
Poly: ~01/02/09
Linear: ~09/24/09
Conclusion: The possible release date is [median value] -> ~05/27/09

I am still hoping that the new version will be released in april....

[Serg]

How are you guys calculating yours, cause I come up with something totally different...

Oh yeah, 'new linear' is the current rate, after the slow 1 per day block, totally invalid if you wanted to look at the over all. Use "Total linear"

[Thndr]

How are you guys calculating yours, cause I come up with something totally different...

Oh yeah, 'new linear' is the current rate, after the slow 1 per day block, totally invalid if you wanted to look at the over all. Use "Total linear"

I simple comparison and standard BS. Too damn lazy to use excel or even a stastical analysis program.

I see you used the current month's progress for a new linear, but is it possible to make a polynomial that takes the week long breaks into consideration?
Probably would shift it to closer to the current averages of course, but who knows. More data isn't a bad thing with statistics.