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Author Topic: Graph of items remaining vs time  (Read 2373 times)

Omniarch

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Graph of items remaining vs time
« on: December 19, 2008, 06:03:59 pm »

I made this graph.  Now obviously neither curve is going to be accurate at all, but I would say this sets an upper and lower bound on the release date.
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Novocain

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2008, 06:44:37 pm »

I've always liked to think of Toady as an nth order polynomial. This graph validates me.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2008, 06:53:40 pm »

I like the left line. (slope?)
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Creamcorn

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2008, 07:12:16 pm »

I like the left line. (slope?)

I just like clicking on stuff.
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"OH NO! That carp is gulping at me menacingly, even though it cannot really threaten me from here on land!  I KNOW! I'll dodge into the water, where I'll be safe!"

Duke 2.0

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2008, 07:22:03 pm »

I like the left line. (slope?)

I just like clicking on stuff.
Looking is cool with me.

 Edit: Why does it go down to -400?
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Buck up friendo, we're all on the level here.
I would bet money Andrew has edited things retroactively, except I can't prove anything because it was edited retroactively.
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Omniarch

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2008, 07:32:47 pm »

I was just fiddling with the numbers to make both lines fit.
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inaluct

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2008, 07:44:51 pm »

It'll be interesting to see how closely Toady's actual progress follows the graph.
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shadow_archmagi

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2008, 07:50:00 pm »

09!? 09!?

Hah. Hah. Haaah.
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invention is every dwarf's middle name
that means that somewhere out there theres a dwarf named Urist Invention Mcinvention.

ToonyMan

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2008, 07:54:49 pm »

2009 is getting pretty close believe it or not.  I just can't see my self wait untill september or whatever it was for an update.  Must go back into insanity.
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Neonivek

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2008, 07:55:53 pm »

2009 is getting pretty close believe it or not.  I just can't see my self wait untill september or whatever it was for an update.  Must go back into insanity.

I think it will be a bit sooner then that once Toady hits a fast patch
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Roundabout Lout

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2008, 11:03:54 pm »

973? It looks like a February release. I'm pumped. This version is going to be the biggest I've seen since I started playing, so I'm friggin too excited to think about anything not dwarven.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2008, 11:08:21 pm »

I'm with you.  Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf Dwarf
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Thndr

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2008, 01:30:09 am »

I don't have a graph program am too lazy myself, but why don't you calculate a projected slop based on the behavior from past countdowns?

Although as with most statistical estimations, projecting data before it appears is akin to bullshit, but it's accurate bullshit :D.
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Omniarch

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2008, 01:54:32 am »

I don't have a graph program am too lazy myself, but why don't you calculate a projected slop based on the behavior from past countdowns?

I'm pretty sure this is the first update where Toady's kept a countdown like this.  In about a month I'll update it again and we'll see where we stand (unless DF comes out before the 19th of January lol)
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Thndr

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Re: Graph of items remaining vs time
« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2008, 02:11:58 am »

I don't have a graph program am too lazy myself, but why don't you calculate a projected slop based on the behavior from past countdowns?

I'm pretty sure this is the first update where Toady's kept a countdown like this.  In about a month I'll update it again and we'll see where we stand (unless DF comes out before the 19th of January lol)
He started the format for the number then newspost on 06/13/2008
Before then he would make a passing comment on the number of bugs//lines left to go. (Ultimately before it reached 0 for DFv39a)

Boring news analysing crap in spoiler. Half assed job of it too.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Although looking back on it, he doesn't provide enough data until really the end running stretch between last version of DFv38 and DFv39, which for almost exactly a month had him go down basically 250. Not that we should base anything on that... But hell, analysts do it all the time!
Horrible way to guess outcomes too. But it comes out to around 4 months more, or April... That is if he does the same progress as before and doesn't come across sub-lists that take forever, or make new bugs.
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