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[Imp]

I'm trying to take it on board. You're right that my read of Crystal being scum relies on her and Juice hard bussing each other. I've explained why I think that that was a possible play (everyone knew Juice would be eliminated) but it's possible I've got the sequence of events muddled: did Juice start going hard on Crystal before everyone scumread Juice? I don't think so, but am I wrong?

Maybe pull the first post where you see juice go for her?  Share the story you see.

[notquitethere]

You're right! He does narrow the pool down to vote-havers and he gets this absolutely correct. It was good instinct (even if he picks the wrong person). And it's a move that you wouldn't expect scum to make. This makes me feel better about my Crystal pick.

But I can't give him the 100% confirming credit for this, I should point out, because:

1. While gesturing towards a suspicion of actual scum players, in this instance he uses this argument to attack town. Scum routinely scumlean each other for distancing.
2. He promptly forgets about this argument and pool making in later days and either doesn't vote or votes outside the pool, so he can't have put too much weight in this idea.

(NJW do you remember why you changed your mind about voting in {EP, Fallacy, Juice, Hyper}?)

So I think there's a world where NJW says a true thing because scum know the truth, in service of attacking town and distancing from his allies, doesn't expect anyone else to go along with him with this idea (most players don't sheep other player's reasoning in the Bay12 meta), and then promptly ignores this reasoning later in the game when it's no longer convenient.

Now maybe that sounds unfair, but I'm saying it's possible. Every scum team you can construct requires accepting that the player who is alive today (and one of us!) has bussed his or her allies.


Imp

I'm trying to take it on board. You're right that my read of Crystal being scum relies on her and Juice hard bussing each other. I've explained why I think that that was a possible play (everyone knew Juice would be eliminated) but it's possible I've got the sequence of events muddled: did Juice start going hard on Crystal before everyone scumread Juice? I don't think so, but am I wrong?

Maybe pull the first post where you see juice go for her?  Share the story you see.

I was hoping you'd do the hard work of finding the post, but OK I found it. You're right that Juice first votes Crystal on D2 for some nonsense reason about self-acting, and then lazily continues that vote on subsequent days. You think scum!Juice would just relentlessly tunnel a low-posting town player with weak reasons, and I agree that is normal scumplay. I think it's possible that scum would distance, just like the did on D1 (Hyper v Juice) with the intention of allowing town to eliminate one another— a plan that was successful on D2 vs Fallacy. Crystal was floated as a possible wagon multiple times but it never seriously took off. If that was scum's plan to fool through harmless distancing, you have to admit it would have been a successful plan as (if true) it's given everyone pause for thought today.

[notquitethere]

Actually, following up a thought about the bussing...

NQT-Salvatore-Juice: pre-emptively scumread juice on D2 and tried to move the wagon off of Fallacy and onto Juice; bussed him D3. Second on the wagon against Salvatore.  = bussed both of them

Crystal-Salvatore-Juice: Said that she suspected Juice but did nothing about it. Then the next day she was first on Juice wagon. And then the day after she was first on the Salvatore wagon. = bussed both of them

NJW-Salvatore-Juice: Said that he would hammer Juice but it wasn't necessary. Said that he thought scum was in "{EJ, CM, Salvatore}" but that he was afraid of a miselim. = Distanced from both but didn't hard bus either of them

So even here, where he's been off wagon every time, NJW if scum technically didn't bus anyone: rather he offered an alternative lynch candidate both times while being around to hammer just in case. See for example:

I think Salvatore is a reasonable elim, especially after the rapid changes of vote just now. I think it’s most likely to be distancing salvatore + CM, but not 100% on that.

Considering scum!NQT a bit, and also considering scum!Imp due to EP’s result. I also notice Imp has found someone (NQT this time) to scumread heavily outside the main elim today, just like she did with Tric when Juicebox was being eliminated. If salvatore flips scum, I’m going to be pretty wary of that slot.

Happy to hammer Salvatore when the time comes, but as a statement of intention, CrystalizedMire. I don’t like the fact they seem to have abandoned the idea of using the inspect despite scumreading EJ, and I think they’ve been just a bit too cute with the jokes and misunderstandings around Imp gaining Duelist.

NJW's complete 180 on Crystal is a bit odd for sure. And floating alternative wagons to the one that's about to eliminate a scum player is something town can do— they after all don't really know who is scum— but this does fit neatly with scum trying in the most low key way to keep open the possibility of their ally not being murked.

NJW, were you satisfied with Crystal's response to the allegation you made against her on D4?

[notquitethere]

Actually just realised something coming up from my recent digging...

NJW on D1:
Was voting Imp and then unvotes.

NJW on D2:

{EP, Fallacy, Juice, Hyper}

Also floats Vermillion. Ultimately chooses Fallacy.

NJW on D3:

"I'm still trying to figure out where else I'd want an elim in crystal, [NQT] and salvatore"

Ultimately chooses no one.

NJW on D4:

"{EJ, CM, Salvatore}"

Ultimately chooses Crystal.

So each day from D2, he floats a series of candidates each which always includes at least one scum player and then he doesn't vote for that player.

If he's town and Crystal is scum, then he's just been unlucky and he was legit to suggest her elimination on D4.

If he's scum then this fits neatly in the pattern of normal safe distance-but-not-to-the-point-of-endangering scum play.

That the pool of candidates changes each day isn't necessarily malign, but it does completely undermine the (correct!) argument he made on D2 about scum being non-auctioneers.

[NJW2000]

Weirdly, I don't really see you (or most people) making this kind of appeal as scum. @NJW: You've played with scum!NQT before, is he willing to get personal?

No clue. We were winning. He was a bit more vibes-based and less statistical as scum when lurking through a very simple D1, but this is outside of my experience with him.

If you lynch me today and somehow town survives the night, then I would recommend eliminating Crystal over NJW tomorrow.

To be honest, NQT, the overall lack of interest in this scenario is exactly why I think you're very unlikely to be town. A good player like yourself would, as town, accept the possibility of their own elim, and advocate hard for the player they thought most likely to be scum. The amount your vote swung today... it looked like you were focused on having both CM and myself eliminated. Which I get is better than your elimination, in the world where you're town and can't choose between us, but it's the lack of engagement with an alternative path to victory that gets me.

I'm pretty sure I win whatever happens as long as I can convince EP to read CM correctly and Imp continues to do so. Maybe there's some mechanical nonsense if we miselim today, but that's always a possibility and not worth taking extremely seriously.

I don't think you get how much I think this day might end in a loss for town if we get this wrong.

I mean, maybe? But you think you can contain Crystal if I'm eliminated, at least... again, the common denominator to your plan is "don't elim NQT", not "stop mafia winning". Other players have powers that could be used to stop at least one of two kills, if it's that bad.

Maybe this is a town voice. I'm wavering a bit on that. But to think I could perfectly read you on tone requires that I think I'm much better than you at this game. And I don't think that.

(NJW do you remember why you changed your mind about voting in {EP, Fallacy, Juice, Hyper}?)

We have eliminated Fallacy, Juice and Hyper. I voted out Fallacy, would have voted out Juice if people hadn't put their votes in before me, and was often on the fence about Hyper but ultimately ready to see them flip. I've never seriously wanted to eliminate EP, but that's the only one of the four.

I started seriously considering eliminating you, CM and EJ on D4 after we'd flipped FoU and Juicebox. Unless it was EP + HyperSalv (very unlikely), we needed to look outside those two to find at least one scum.

NJW, were you satisfied with Crystal's response to the allegation you made against her on D4?

I'll reread and get to this - I don't remember what it was about.

If Crystal just never replied, I probably won't stop voting you. I get why that is annoying for you, but I still think it's correct.

[notquitethere]

First, I've devoted a post earlier to exploring the end game possibilities, so already this whole point is bullshit.

But more than that, NJW, I don't believe you. I don't believe that you think it's scummy that I've insufficiently gamed out what town should do on D6 if I die and Crystal doesn't double-kill. Town basically never listen to the advice of the dead. I've said who I think is scum and I can hope that eventually my reasons would sink in but my best efforts are spent trying to get things right today.

There's a whole day left in this day, I'm not giving up yet eliminating scum. I

[notquitethere]

And yes my vote  has swung between Crystal and NJW BECAUSE I AM UNSURE

That's a clear indication I'm town you absolute melon

NJW you are doing a great job of convincing me I may be wrong about Crystal.

[Elephant Parade]

Actually, there is one thing I don't like about NJW: that I was prevented from targeting him last night, having claimed an investigative ability. Except that I'd specified that I had a Watch, which scum!NJW would want to be in the targeting pool for. Unless he thought I had additional investigative abilities? I'm disinclined to give this much weight.

NQT: Were you informed that you were unable to target CM and I last night?

NJW2000: Do you think CM would take Smithy as town?

[notquitethere]

NQT: Were you informed that you were unable to target CM and I last night?

No. And now that you mention it, when my power was disabled on N3 I was informed. It's a different power, and it's not impossible that Magma would implement something one way and another power the opposite.


NJW VS CRYSTAL: THEIR EVOLVING SUSPICIONS 

I've accidentally written a whole essay here. I'm turning into Imp. I don't think anyone will read this or if you lot do, you'll pick one part out of context to add to the pile. But it was helpful for me sharpening up my reads here. I keep getting accused of being unfair and trying to cast shade on Crystal, so I really do want to get this right.

NJW
On D3, NJW has this to say about Crystal:

Happy to hammer Salvatore when the time comes, but as a statement of intention, CrystalizedMire. I don’t like the fact they seem to have abandoned the idea of using the inspect despite scumreading EJ, and I think they’ve been just a bit too cute with the jokes and misunderstandings around Imp gaining Duelist.

He makes this vote right at the end of the day while unvoting Euchrejack who had just been voted by Salvatore. i.e. he doesn't want the day to end with his vote alongside Salvatore's.

In the duelist chat, he says that the flip makes Crystal look better because he says she offered to investigate Salvatore and that Salvatore needed to attack Crystal. But while Salvatore did vote Crystal, he was voting Euchrejack at day end and Crystal didn't manage to investigate anything. In the chat, Imp asks him some questions about whether he believes an explanation I gave for something before Imp joined, and NJW says that it's plausible— he doesn't mention any reservations about me at this stage.

His night action was apparently to prevent me targeting Crystal or Elephant Parade. So by this point he had committed to the plan of focusing on me on D5 and had fully gone to suspecting Crystal to protecting her above Imp or Euchrejack: two players I had actually attacked during D4.

Funnily enough it's after he's made this night action that he claims he's beginning tentatively to suspect me:

I’m starting to pretty seriously consider NQT. I’m not sure who else it can be.

Like he's dipping his toe in the water here, not willing to commit despite acting against me at night. The reason he gives for this switch? Nothing to do with the things he said about Crystal in the duelist chat, but because I'm too towny and reasonable! Well I hope he likes me in my new unhinged era!!

I didn’t have much time last night, but I did get to watch NQT and Imp talking in the chat. One thing that struck me was that as towny and reasonable as NQT looked, they never got anywhere with their approach, and they never changed it. It’s been like that this whole game.

NJW gives a different story later about why he targeted me, but rereading it now, does it hold up?

I stopped you targeting Crystal because EJ claimed to be setting something up there that could, according to him, potentially stop the nightkill. I was able to protect EP as well as a kind of freebie. I wasn't sure about EJ's alignment, but my gut said you were the best person to block, and you'd be likely to target CM as scum to stop whatever EJ was going for.

He's fixated on some scheme that EJ had hinted at— something hinted at but that wasn't clear until after he flipped and is probably the reason why mafia killed him. He stops me targeting Crystal and Elephant Parade... because his gut says so. But if he believes I'm mafia, why not stop me targeting EJ? Well, he later explains it's to do with the house location? On the other hand, maybe scum knows I can track—they can cheat after all— knowing that it would be between him, Crystal and me on D5 would give a scum!NJW a rationale for preventing me from clearing Crystal. Still, I want to say that it's not impossible for a town!NJW to make this move: he could have genuinely flipped his thinking on Crystal and the POE'd me as scum. But if that was the story, then why didn't he say that? Why's he say one thing in the duelist chat, say something completely different and be tentative about me in thread, and then claim like he was already suspecting me? While he eventually gets the story clear when explaining it to Crystal, the chronology of his evolving suspicions is still quite murky.

Anyway, after that he votes me with an easy question about why I'd think Crystal was going to double-kill us, like that was his case:

notquitethere: Do you have some particular reason to think scum!crystal would be likely to achieve their eurogame criterion at the start of tonight?

I answer that clearly and immediately, but he lazily keeps tunneling and now his latest thing is he's not going to change his mind no matter what:

I probably won't stop voting you. I get why that is annoying for you, but I still think it's correct.

Crystal

But what about my suspicions of Crystal? Everyone's case on her is basically being lazy is NAI. And right enough I took the time to see her town game in the Monster mafia, where she lurked even more than here it seems:

CM posted #190, last post of D1
Wolfkey, #232:

CM doesn't post again until D3, #293

But does her evolution of suspicions make more sense? D4 she engages a whole bunch with mechanical planning. She votes early on Salvatore based on thinking his read of Euchrejack wasn't genuine. Rereading it, her reasoning is still confusing to me. She seems to think EJ and Salvatore are scum, but Salvatore is also scum because he wants town to think EJ is scum?? Either way, the suspicions are consistent with her claimed failed night action. Claiming a night action in advance is also a good way of getting blocked, so that's consistent with being town (or it's high tier scum WIFOM- is she that good as mafia?).

D5 her suspicions are wide open:

CM: Who are your townreads?

My only firm townread is Imp. Last day I townread you as well but I'm more open to the possibility of you being scum. So my only real scum leans are NJW and NQT.

She mildly scumleans EP, and makes out NJW & NQT may be town because two scum duelists is OTT:

You still have lingering towncred from your playstyle and I'm not very sure duelist chat would've started out with 2/3 scum because it sounds very unbalanced to me. Imp is confirmed town after Euchrejack flip.

And fair enough, while I floated the idea first in the duelist chat of there being two scum in there, it wasn't taken up by either Savatore or NJW, and I quickly dismissed it too. She pushes NJW on his night action choice, she has the same questions I did. She's still mildly suspecting EP, and explains her powers:

As I said in the post, EP has gone to lingering towncred due to the fact that 2/3 scum in duelist chat seems weird and unlikely.
The resource stuff is that I can self target with an ability to gain a resource for every person that targets me. Then I can place a worker on a player. I can feed workers as a free action which causes me to see which players match the alignment of the first player I placed a worker on. This converts resources into victory points. Auction gives me resources for each item sold.

I guess the background is she hasn't been able to play the minigame effectively because EJ has blocked her. If she's town, this sucks majorly as her kill would instawin us the game. If she's scum, EJ wins MVP. Finally, she offers me as more suspicious than NJW when forced to pick between the two... but does she think EP is worse than both of us? She seems pretty serious that EP is a valid target, and yet that would be an unnecessary line to take when I'm the easy kill for today. But if mafia, she could be thinking ahead to D6 when EP might need to be a valid suspect.

And... that's that for Crystal. She hasn't done much today. I'm fighting for my life and she's sipping piña coladas.


NJW has posted a whole lot in the last day, but has exactly one suspicion that apparently formed in his gut and then hardened into something definite and now he can't consider any other candidate but me.

Crystal has, as ever, done very little, but she's kept her suspicions open and has yet to commit.

Honestly, I can still see either of them, but doing this now has made me less sure about Crystal and more unsure about NJW.

Basically, I want to hear more from Crystal. If she suspects Elephant Parade, is she going to vote him? Is she satisfied with NJW's implicit road to Damascus moment in the night, completely upending his prior suspicions?

[notquitethere]

Hold up, hold up.

Alright, it might work.

If I act upon the same location twice, there are Two Houses.  Anyone that acts upon a player in a location with Two Houses would have their action blocked.

Ok, Two Houses blocks all abilities.

I should clarify: It appears that taking an action on a player outside of the Safe Zone moves the player out of the Safe Zone.  So after acting upon Crystalizedmire, the kill immunity will only work if players abstain from night actions.

CrystalisedMire is in a safezone. She's staying in the safezone. Anyone acting on her will be blocked. I COULDN'T ACT ON CRYSTAL EVEN IF I WANTED TO! This changes everything.

NJW knows all about this Euchrejack house stuff, he's talked a load about it. I wasn't fully following it before. He knows that Crystal is safe. She's untouchable. There's no rationale whatsoever to stop me targeting her, because I couldn't even if I wanted to.

What possible reason could there be?

Scum need to kill a duelist tonight so D6 doesn't start with a duelist pair. They need one of us not to be in the safe zone.

This sure looks like NJW2000 was pre-emptively making sure I could be killed. But why didn't he prevent Imp from targeting Crystal? Because he couldn't justify that if it was spotted? Because he thinks she's likely to keep self-targeting?

Anyone else, am I misunderstanding something here? Or does NJW's whole reasoning now make absolutely no sense with what EJ had claimed?

[Imp]

I continue to be super busy elsewhere.  I glance here and cannot focus.  I will well before day end and I will discuss.  Don't feel ignored, anyone; don't feel like Imp's made up Imp-mind.  I am still gathering info and I will read when I can.

[Elephant Parade]

NJW: When you prevent someone from targeting someone else using your power, are they informed?

[NJW2000]

All: apologies if I've missed any questions. Please let me know. I've just about managed to push the below through before going to bed, but can talk more in 10-12 hours

NJW: When you prevent someone from targeting someone else using your power, are they informed?

The night after they are, yes. It's an optional buff I used because EJ's power interfered with my main ability N3.

NJW2000: Do you think CM would take Smithy as town?

Yes, absolutely. They did it before in Soviet Mafia and it was glorious.


NQT: re the safezone stuff, it didn't look like EJ had managed to build more than one house. Otherwise... could we even get to CM's location by targeting them, if we'd be blocked when we tried?

You do seem to be grasping a bit.

Re: my allegations towards CM: I had a couple. If it's asking why they were willing to abandon the idea of using the inspect despite scumreading EJ... I forgot to follow up on that because today has been moving quite fast, but you're right, they didn't talk about it. Reading their D4 though, it looks like they just decided Salvatore was the likeliest scum, making EJ probably town, and EJ's plan worth doing. I don't really know though - CM can have some rather vague reasoning sometimes.

Looking through their ISO, I get that it doesn't look great that they still haven't asked Magma if they can use the worker that was on EJ for the inspect. But CM is just like this sometimes. It's a bit frustrating, but it's necessary to distinguish between scummy plays and poor ones. I eliminated town!CM in an Armed Forces Mafia game, for pretty similar reasons.

-----------------
I also don't want to be dragged into this, but you're really not representing what I'm saying properly. You've taken this quote:

NJW, were you satisfied with Crystal's response to the allegation you made against her on D4?

I'll reread and get to this - I don't remember what it was about.

If Crystal just never replied, I probably won't stop voting you. I get why that is annoying for you, but I still think it's correct.

and changed it to:

I probably won't stop voting you. I get why that is annoying for you, but I still think it's correct.

Your decision to post along these lines rather than carefully weigh the evidence today is why I'm scumreading you.

If you're town, just... STOP fighting for your life. Stop struggling for air. Sink. Start thinking. Accept that you may be eliminated, and work out what you can do despite that. If my ability to read CM has gone wildly off, or EP is playing a Hall-of-Fame worthy scum game, I need you to help me see how, so we can win.

[Elephant Parade]

Could you explain what you mean by "the night after"? I was prevented from targeting you N4 and told that in my end-of-D4 PM.

[NJW2000]

Could you explain what you mean by "the night after"? I was prevented from targeting you N4 and told that in my end-of-D4 PM.

If I prevent X targeting Y on night N, X gets a message at the start of night N+1.

Shouldn't have happened to you though, because on N3 I couldn't use the ability due to EJ's power. Also, I only used the ability that makes the announcement happen on N3. I won't say any more about the specifics because there may be a very slim edge available by continuing to stay quiet about roles, but it really doesn't sound like you were hit with my power. Or at the very least, not a version of it used by me.