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[notquitethere]

NQT: No, seriously, why on earth would you have tracked Imp over any other player? She was at the top of your readlist yesterday and Salvatore flipping scum made her even more town by confirming EJ's greencheck wasn't dishonest.

If you'd seen the duelist chat you wouldn't be asking this! Due to Imp's tinfoil belligerence towards me, and her fooling me the last time she was scum and we shared a chat, I wanted to remove any shred of a doubt that she was scum, especially as she was still a possible elimination candidate for you, Crystal, NJW and even Euchrejack to a very small extent. So possibly clearing her seemed like a high value thing to do. Also, I'd already acted on Crystal so it was less valuable to act on her again. I say both these things because a key part of my ability is it varies a bit in power each night and so it was by no means certain that I would get the track result, I could have just got the genre and number of abilities— a result I already had for Crystal.

Hey, NQT.  Why am I not green in that?  Didn't you just get through explaining how sure you are I can't be maf?

Yes of course, I just greened my name so paranoiacs like yourself wouldn't accuse me of scumslipping here by putting my own name in the suspect list. Evidently that backfired. Chill.

We've seen Eurogame flip and know they don't vig. They kill opposite alignment.

Oh yeah good spot. So the vig possibility isn't dangerous, but the mafia possibility is.

How are you not tracking all this stuff town would really care about and mafia might struggle to remember to think about when speaking 'as town'?

It's silly o'clock in the morning here, I should go to bed.

[Elephant Parade]

NQT: No, seriously, why on earth would you have tracked Imp over any other player? She was at the top of your readlist yesterday and Salvatore flipping scum made her even more town by confirming EJ's greencheck wasn't dishonest.

If you'd seen the duelist chat you wouldn't be asking this! Due to Imp's tinfoil belligerence towards me, and her fooling me the last time she was scum and we shared a chat, I wanted to remove any shred of a doubt that she was scum, especially as she was still a possible elimination candidate for you, Crystal, NJW and even Euchrejack to a very small extent. So possibly clearing her seemed like a high value thing to do. Also, I'd already acted on Crystal so it was less valuable to act on her again. I say both these things because a key part of my ability is it varies a bit in power each night and so it was by no means certain that I would get the track result, I could have just got the genre and number of abilities— a result I already had for Crystal.

I can kind of buy it but it still seems strange to pick Imp over NJW there. Unvote.

[notquitethere]

I made a snap judgement and maybe it wasn't the right one— maybe NJW would have made more sense. As I said, the track was an optional extra. There was a 40% chance of it happening, so I got lucky.* Additionally I thought there might be some possibility of learning whether Imp was hiding an extra genre— which if true would have shone new light on some things.

*Now I have it, I've run the scenarios and I don't think it's possible for me to get weaker this night, so (scum actions allowing) I can definitely track again.

[Elephant Parade]

For the record, because I don't think I made it explicit, the reason I made a big deal over this is that tracking Imp seemed like the ideal scum play -- it cleared nobody who wasn't already cleared.

[NJW2000]

@NJW: Re: CM: ...
Lazily turning statements into questions is one of CM's most reliable scumtells, IME. That balances out the out-of-range-to-fake ability claim, leaving a player who is moderately difficult to put on a team with juicebox yet who has utterly refused to engage with the daygame in a way that's unusual for her.

I don't agree. I think town!CM very often posts a question that jumps straight off what was being discussed. They even tend to pick up other player's language in their own posts, so get accused of sheeping a lot. It's just one example, but you can kind of see the thought process happening in this quote from the last game I played with CM:

...a not unreasonable read, if you don't know me from old. Can't help a townie trying not to not look like townie, of course, however badly. I found the question itself quite funny, though.

I can't know you from old because I'm relatively newer. Good point on it being an interesting question though.
NJW: Why did you ask me about that post in particular

This was them as town. I can probably find town examples of the lanugage thing too... it very nearly ended up with an elim on them here, for example. This is NAI at most for crystal.

Thinking on it some more, if Crystal is scum and she survives to this night and has enough victory points to use her kill, if she splats two players, mafia wins, right? If she's town and vigs the wrong player, mafia also win. Mechanically, juice's flip gives us more reason to elim Crystal.

This feels weak. I mean, I get the logic being stated here, but it seems like the space of possibilities in which it's actually relevant is very thin, to say the least.

At the very least, nobody could sensibly take this as a reason to elim crystal today unless:
   a) Crystal is in their top two scumpicks,
   b) They think Crystal is near as likely or more likely to be scum than the other pick, and
   c) They have a compelling reason to believe that scum!crystal is more likely to achieve two successful kills than their other scumpick

I suppose as the certainty of your belief in c) increases, b) could be weakened a bit. But c) involves mechanical reasoning in a high-powered BYOR with a lot of unknowns. Briefly - we should be aiming to eliminate our scumreads, rather than according to mechanical speculation.

notquitethere: Do you have some particular reason to think scum!crystal would be likely to achieve their eurogame criterion at the start of tonight?

[Crystalizedmire]

I stopped NQT targeting Crystal or EP.

Why me and Elephant Parade? Why not stop NQT from targeting Euchrejack or Imp since those two were basically town after that flip?

[NJW2000]

I stopped NQT targeting Crystal or EP.

Why me and Elephant Parade? Why not stop NQT from targeting Euchrejack or Imp since those two were basically town after that flip?

I didn't want to stop anyone targeting Imp, because Imp has been hinting that it may or may not be dangerous for mafia to nightkill them, or at least is trying to confuse scum by saying that. I trust Imp to be doing the right thing there, so I've been leaving them alone.

I have a very strong townread on EP, and basically thought they were worth protecting whatever happened. This game, they've been widely townread, engaged, and systematic, so it was reasonable to think they'd draw the nightkill. It was also kind of free for me to do this with EP, but not with other players. I stopped NQT targeting you because EJ claimed to be building houses in order to make a Safe Zone with you at the centre. Obviously having you alive would help with that. Also, after a reread, I felt you'd almost never offer to target salvatore with the inspect-ish power as scum, and was quite confidently townreading you.

With 20/20 hindsight, yeah, it would have been better if I'd stopped NQT targeting EJ. But I thought they were less likely to be the nightkill, because they still looked a bit dubious after yesterday, and can be a scum asset in the endgame. I was considering blocking EJ instead, in fact.

[notquitethere]

For the record, because I don't think I made it explicit, the reason I made a big deal over this is that tracking Imp seemed like the ideal scum play -- it cleared nobody who wasn't already cleared.

Right, but as I argued yesterday, you basically uncleared her though by the end of D4 I'd talked myself back round to seeing Imp as most likely town. But yes, if the track had been a dead cert I would have done something different, you're right it maybe wasn't fully optimal.

This feels weak. I mean, I get the logic being stated here, but it seems like the space of possibilities in which it's actually relevant is very thin, to say the least.

At the very least, nobody could sensibly take this as a reason to elim crystal today unless:
   a) Crystal is in their top two scumpicks,
   b) They think Crystal is near as likely or more likely to be scum than the other pick, and
   c) They have a compelling reason to believe that scum!crystal is more likely to achieve two successful kills than their other scumpick

I believe in all three of these.

Briefly - we should be aiming to eliminate our scumreads, rather than according to mechanical speculation.

Sure, but I rate the danger of two mafia-directed deaths very highly when it would instantly lose us the game.

notquitethere: Do you have some particular reason to think scum!crystal would be likely to achieve their eurogame criterion at the start of tonight?

Yes, several.

She's already had four nights of actions. Possibly five if she got to act N0 like I did. I believe Magma would have balanced his roles so that players didn't necessarily have to survive six days to unleash their big power.

I think its possible Crystal got unlucky or was bad at doing the worker placement minigame efficiently. But I think if she is playing efficiently then about now would be the time she could fire off her weapon. I'm not just making things up based on my gut here: take a look at Juiceboxes' eurogame role. Magma balanced it with receiving about 2 VP per night (with a big windfall possible, but also actions that wouldn't net VP). That means the kill happens at the start of N6, when scum would have won anyway. But it's also designed that if he gets lucky Handmaid, or Priest on a a player with lots of night actions (and keep in mind at least one player claimed three actions in a night), then Juice could have triggered the kill on the start of N5 when it would be decisive.

Additionally, one thing we know about Crystal is that she maximally succeeded in her auction ability, and it's not unreasonable to suppose she got a whole load of victory points from that.

[Imp]

I see NQT is L-1.

I dunno what's gonna happen.

Maf cheat so... I dunno what happens.

But wanted to offer this before the day ends.  It's hard to be me and not.

But I can't promise this.  Maf cheat.  And I don't know who maf are.  I can only read.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-IKFuBPSkU

[Elephant Parade]

@NJW: I still disagree -- I think that town!CM usually provides some kind of context or opinion or other text instead of just a raw statement-question. I agree that she's prone to sheeping as town; it's this specific thing that's a red flag to me. I'm not going to do a deep dive right now because I'm PFP and lazy and no longer inclined to lynch her over NQT anyway; maybe later today.

I know I voted for NJW this morning, but out of everyone alive and uncleared, NQT has been the most consistently shady, so that's the sensible place to put my vote. I'm obviously not going to hammer right now, though.

[Elephant Parade]

NQT: D2, you chose Salvatore as the player I had to target that night in order to gain the Watch ability. Why?

[notquitethere]

NQT: D2, you chose Salvatore as the player I had to target that night in order to gain the Watch ability. Why?

Out of my duelist targets, he was the one I was least sure about. Although I was provisionally going with the idea of it most likely all three of us were town, I entertained the idea that one of NJW or Salvatore were scum. I hoped you had some kind of investigative power— this was before I knew what the family powers were.

[notquitethere]

Given the threat I've outlined, I'm happy to commit to Crystal.

Important claim: I can track whomever tonight and I cannot be fooled or redirected. If I live to the night, I'll use it on NJW or Crystal, whomever survives.

Imp, Elephant Parade, have you read my previous post about Crystal's power? If she's scum, then there's quite a high possibility of her killing two town players tonight and winning the game. If you do decide to kill me, Elephant Parade should prevent Crystal from double-killing— he has block/protect based options at his disposal. If town lose because of this, I won't be impressed.

[Elephant Parade]

No I don't, unfortunately. I wasn't able to use Ice Cream N3 -- it was already gone, and even if it wasn't, I had ceded it to Tric because I figured there was no convincing him to let me use it instead.

[Imp]

I stopped NQT targeting Crystal or EP.

Why me and Elephant Parade? Why not stop NQT from targeting Euchrejack or Imp since those two were basically town after that flip?

I didn't want to stop anyone targeting Imp, because Imp has been hinting that it may or may not be dangerous for mafia to nightkill them, or at least is trying to confuse scum by saying that. I trust Imp to be doing the right thing there, so I've been leaving them alone.

I have a very strong townread on EP, and basically thought they were worth protecting whatever happened. This game, they've been widely townread, engaged, and systematic, so it was reasonable to think they'd draw the nightkill. It was also kind of free for me to do this with EP, but not with other players. I stopped NQT targeting you because EJ claimed to be building houses in order to make a Safe Zone with you at the centre. Obviously having you alive would help with that. Also, after a reread, I felt you'd almost never offer to target salvatore with the inspect-ish power as scum, and was quite confidently townreading you.

With 20/20 hindsight, yeah, it would have been better if I'd stopped NQT targeting EJ. But I thought they were less likely to be the nightkill, because they still looked a bit dubious after yesterday, and can be a scum asset in the endgame. I was considering blocking EJ instead, in fact.

Why protect the target of the build instead of the builder, NJW?

Why would the target, IF TAKEN, disrupt the building more than taking the builder?