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[Crystalizedmire]

CM: Who are your townreads?

My only firm townread is Imp. Last day I townread you as well but I'm more open to the possibility of you being scum. So my only real scum leans are NJW and NQT.

[Elephant Parade]

CM: Who are your townreads?

My only firm townread is Imp. Last day I townread you as well but I'm more open to the possibility of you being scum. So my only real scum leans are NJW and NQT.

Why?

[NJW2000]

NJW

I stopped NQT targeting Crystal or EP.

Why Crystal? Also, can you stop me targeting you or does it have to be other players?

I stopped you targeting Crystal because EJ claimed to be setting something up there that could, according to him, potentially stop the nightkill. I was able to protect EP as well as a kind of freebie. I wasn't sure about EJ's alignment, but my gut said you were the best person to block, and you'd be likely to target CM as scum to stop whatever EJ was going for.

Now that I've seen his flip, it's not exactly what I expected. But I think it can technically stop the mafiakill, especially if there are only one or two locations people are actually in. Unless it's already worked though, I don't think it can stop the mafiakill soon enough.

The self-targeting question would not always be a good question to answer. But no, I can't target myself with the block/protect thing... the remaining scum is probably smart enough to have figured this out. I could theoretically end up hitting myself with it if I'm redirected or bussed, though. That's why I'm confused by EP's claim to have been unable to target me. It suggests a great deal of interference with actions, if it's my power doing it.

OK, cool. That makes me more or less completely uninterested in lynching you today, since scum has to be in {NQT, CM, NJW}. If we lynch CM or NJW today, scum has to be in {NQT, X}, where X is whoever of CM or NJW we didn't lynch today. If scum then kills you tonight, then it can only be {X}. If scum kills anyone else, then you can clear {X}, meaning... it's... you? I'm not sure I'm thinking through this the right way, and obviously it relies on the assumption that you won't be interfered with (and, for people who aren't me, the assumption that I'm town), but I think it basically makes sense.

I'm biased here, but I really don't think this works. We probably only have two eliminations left, you don't get to flip three scumreads. At the very least, you're going to have to choose between two people tomorrow if you don't get it right the first time.


Imp gets info if you flip me or NQT, I suppose... then again, with the unused Pretzels and the caveat that mafia can interfere, I don't think that's a sure thing. There's also the fact that scum can just kill Imp and create WIFOM when NQT or I flip. So one way or another, it comes down to reads.

I think I'd be going for {me, NQT, CM} in your position too. If you need to eliminate me, I get it, but please bear in mind afterwards that I really struggle to see scum!CM here. People ignored my reads in the last game I was in as well, and threw away what could have been a pretty easy victory.

[Imp]

There's a lot of unknowns.

If CM is town and gets a sure-maf kill that's nice; any other town eurogames are nice.  It sucks because some town with Eurogame might think not scumhunting protects them better.  They don't need to pick their kill, they just need to live long enough to fire and forget.  Which totally forgets the day game and the fact that there's at least 3 town alive right now and the other two+ (if CM is town) could really use some freaking help and clues and work.

If only we had any town narratives that's probably helpful for more kill power at some point as well.  Course, a town narrative probably needs to pick who they kill (maybe not) and probably is trying to get more info who to kill (or trying to fake it).

Course, I don't think a maf would wanna frame it that way.  Better to elim those people if possible for maf, then don't have to juggle so much at once.

Gosh, sure would suck if powerful, killing town has to eat a maf kill.  If maf don't flip CM and CM is town, oooh that's gotta be stress.  If Imp's narrative do maf flip Imp?  Maybe there's other issues with that, the duelist and all - but didn't maf see that coming?  Hrm, why'd pretzels come back into play (if I understand that's reported?).  Some maf planning something?  Guess they think there's a chance it's needed.

Still maybe Sal still in duelist whispering to a not-duelist live maf about what's goin' on in maf chat.  Sal's clearly one of our better and more devious players, for all he glided easily into death (which makes sense why?  How many levels of WIFOM?  Who did and didn't try to save him and what really matters?)

Don't go huh too much:  I think NJW's worry about 'bad plan, too many to kill' is... not towny.  The overall goal of kill one of NJW/CM is not 'and for sure town will win'.  But it's got some pieces there.

My basic reads:

Minimum 3 of us are town, max 4.

Minimum 1 of us is maf, max 2.

EP is convincingly town.  If he's maf I am printing this game's pages, laminating them, and studying them.  Masterclass on 'this looks town even though it's not'.  I'd need to study it to hope to catch him as maf if this is his maf play.

1 or 2 of NJW and NQT are maf to me.  I'm actually not surprised if it's both.

CM is likely town going 'I got a super important town job to do and I don't even need to know who maf are.  Lemme alone'.  She could be maf but I really think maf tries harder; I think I see her doing the same thing I am - with my 'nothing to report'.  I am playing the day game, but hey.  I denied being Eurogame - if I get a kill I gotta aim it.  Not that I'm trying to get any info, even tangled, to maybe help me there.

Seriously though.  If CM's maf I think I can eat her.  I totally could be wrong.  Of course I won't explain why I think that.

NQT and NJW?  If either is maf that survives today's elim.  OMG.  Hang onto your hats.  I have no idea how this progresses.  Town could win, but I'm more scared by far than of if CM is maf that survives today's elim.

CM: Who are your townreads?

My only firm townread is Imp. Last day I townread you as well but I'm more open to the possibility of you being scum. So my only real scum leans are NJW and NQT.

Then again.  Is this maf!CM locked and loaded, ready to clean Imp's clock?  Or just townie CM with a 'fire and forget' kill-maf shot growing and just believing if she keeps her head down maf will cut other flowers first?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wCymclwrnw

I mean I did mention betting town on her being town, though that was very early game.

I really wonder if maf's gonna pull this off.  I wonder if this is still anyone's game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gV_-rQ9QkGQ

[Elephant Parade]

@NJW: Re: CM: If you remember this post:

Suffice to say that the players I trust least right now are EuchreJack and Crystal.

Why don't you trust Euchrejack?

@Imp: I'm gonna help you out and just switch over to NJW2000.

Anyone else notice how Juicebox, Crystalizedmire, and NJW2000 can't be bothered to do much unless they're being voted? suspicious 

It's not my fault that I'm lazy and that every time I check in someone voted for me.

Salvatore Monday: Hasn't posted much. A decent observation here or there but not enough for me to townread them

May you show me examples of Salvatore's decent observations?

Lazily turning statements into questions is one of CM's most reliable scumtells, IME. That balances out the out-of-range-to-fake ability claim, leaving a player who is moderately difficult to put on a team with juicebox yet who has utterly refused to engage with the daygame in a way that's unusual for her.

As for my logic being wrong: I think you're right but I'm currently twisting my head into a knot trying to figure out exactly what the chain of logic looks like, so check back later.

@Magma Mater: Can you confirm whether Salvatore allegedly reacting in duelistchat is a mechanical consequence or just him having a laugh?

My guess is it's the latter. If he were actually permitted to actually communicate in private chats after death, he presumably wouldn't let people in on that.

[notquitethere]

We do have one more tool in our toolbox. Whoever is on the block today can fullclaim what they've been doing this whole game and we can see whether what they say stacks up. NJW has been pretty forthright about night actions. Crystal, somewhat less so.

Elephant Parade... why didn't you watch someone last night? Or did I miss you claiming it?


Some mechanical thoughts about Crystal. Juice's flip confirms Crystal's claim to be able to have a late-game kill, and also explains why she didn't think it was possible anymore on D2— she must have just not got the victory points.

General Abilities

Eurogame (Genre)
_{It's time to play a single-player game. But wouldn't this be better with friends? Maybe there's a way for us to play a single-player game together.}
Earn Victory Points by using your abilities efficiently. If you have at least 10 Victory Points at the start of a night phase, automatically target one member of the opposite faction with a kill. You will prefer targeting players in this order: first valid, unprotected targets; then targets who have received the least amount of votes throughout the game; then targets who have been targeted with the least abilities throughout the game; then randomly. You will learn whom you targeted at the end of the night.

It would be pretty harsh of Magma to give two mafia players bonus kills, but I suppose not impossible. Still, one weird thing jumps out. She briefly talks about transferring resources:

Imp: Do you have any way of transferring resources?

I assumed earlier in the game that that was a eurogame thing, but from Juice's flip, there's no evidence of that at all. It's actually just a Crystal role thing:

My inspectish ability consumes resources. I decided to collect resources on n1 because I predicted that lots of people would target me last night. I was wrong. And then I have to place a worker on one player and then another on another player to actually check. So far, I've only placed one worker.

She could just be bad at playing her role's mini game or got unlucky, but there's no evidence that I can see that resources can be traded. Funnily enough Juice grumpily said he wouldn't trade with Crystal:

@NQT I wouldn't trade resources with them. I don't trust them enough to give them any resources.

He could have just said "I don't know anything about trading resources", but he specifically answered as if resource trading was a thing. Does that somehow implicate Crystal? I'm not sure but it struck me as strange so I thought I would share.

As an aside: I would assume that successfully doing the whole auction on D1 would have given her truck loads of resources. That would make sense for the role, and was what she was hinting at on D1. But then she hasn't managed to do anything productive with night stuff all game.

[Imp]

@NJW: Re: CM: If you remember this post:

Suffice to say that the players I trust least right now are EuchreJack and Crystal.

Why don't you trust Euchrejack?

@Imp: I'm gonna help you out and just switch over to NJW2000.

Anyone else notice how Juicebox, Crystalizedmire, and NJW2000 can't be bothered to do much unless they're being voted? suspicious 

It's not my fault that I'm lazy and that every time I check in someone voted for me.

Salvatore Monday: Hasn't posted much. A decent observation here or there but not enough for me to townread them

May you show me examples of Salvatore's decent observations?

Lazily turning statements into questions is one of CM's most reliable scumtells, IME. That balances out the out-of-range-to-fake ability claim, leaving a player who is moderately difficult to put on a team with juicebox yet who has utterly refused to engage with the daygame in a way that's unusual for her.

As for my logic being wrong: I think you're right but I'm currently twisting my head into a knot trying to figure out exactly what the chain of logic looks like, so check back later.

@Magma Mater: Can you confirm whether Salvatore allegedly reacting in duelistchat is a mechanical consequence or just him having a laugh?

My guess is it's the latter. If he were actually permitted to actually communicate in private chats after death, he presumably wouldn't let people in on that.

he didn't say.  I started to suspect when he remained.

I made two comments he reacted to.  One was observing his presence and stating my expectation about him being there and what that likely means.  Nobody confirmed any of that and I didn't ask the mod.

Later, I made a comment that could have been taken as an insult to him; I didn't intend that and clarfied that I was not insulting him.

He responded.  Within minutes.  With an emoji.

But paying close attention.  PRESENT.  given Sal's not spoken much and is conf maf.  That's... interesting.

Coincidence... doing more maf work.

I suspect.  But don't know; love to hear whatever, if anything, Mater tells us about it.

And the game theme is that 'maf cheat' so... a dead maf spying despite death?

Seems fine to me fits theme.


The trading resources thing is very interesting.

CM... I hope if you are town you choose to discuss/explain that.  It's the one fishy thing you did - moving towards a press on me to confirm my genre as Eurogame and my ability number as 5, and wrapping around the idea of a resources trade.

So I would like an explain, what's goin' on?

[Elephant Parade]

Amusingly, if I am lynched today it becomes impossible for scum!CM to nightkill anyone without creating a mason pair (barring eurokills or other shenanigans) and presumably losing the game. If we lynch one of {NJW, NQT}, then:
- If CM is scum, she must kill one of the remaining duelists or go up against a mason pair -- and probably has to make it Imp unless she wants to thunderdome me
- If the survivor of {NJW, NQT} is scum, they must kill Imp or be forced into thunderdoming a practically confirmed townie

I am once again taking it for granted that there is only one scum left, as I cannot imagine a non-multiball 11P setup that allows for D2 LYLO.

@NQT: I couldn't use it last night; reread the start-of-day post.

[notquitethere]

Thinking on it some more, if Crystal is scum and she survives to this night and has enough victory points to use her kill, if she splats two players, mafia wins, right? If she's town and vigs the wrong player, mafia also win. Mechanically, juice's flip gives us more reason to elim Crystal.

If it's not Crystal, then it's somewhere in {Players:{Duelists:NJW, Imp, NQT}, EP}:
- If scum NK a Duelist, then the remaining Duelists will either gang up on EP or turn on each other with EP being kingmaker.
- If scum NK EP, then it's me v NJW in the finale and maybe by that time Imp will have got her night game together and will have done something useful.

I feel pretty good about both those scenarios.

@NQT: I couldn't use it last night; reread the start-of-day post.

Oh neat, in my excitement to read the flip, I missed that.

Anyway, I learned at the end of the day that I wouldn't be able to use Watch tonight, so that's annoying. (Or target NJW, but that isn't relevant.)

Uh... why isn't that relevant? Who do you think stopped you from targeting NJW? NJW hasn't claimed that. Also, if Watch specifically was blocked it wasn't because it was a Personal ability, as you could still do your taskmaster thing which is also a personal ability, right?

[Elephant Parade]

It wasn't relevant because I wasn't going to target NJW anyway. I assume Watch was blocked because I used it, rather than my personal ability, the previous night.

[Elephant Parade]

Last night I tracked Imp. She self-targeted again.

Imp, you'll know that I targeted you as I confirmed that you don't have a third genre beyond Narrative and Duel, and you have 8 personal abilities.

Importantly, as I hinted at in earlier posts, I'm immune to abilities that interfere with my inspection results so we can definitely conclude, assuming only three scum players:

IMP CANNOT BE SCUM


EP, I think it's unlikely that NJW is scum, though it could be possible. Almost all the convos in the chat are between me and someone else, with NJW and Max not interacting much. Not sure how much weight to put on that, but my guess is Salvatore was the only scum in chat.


I can confirm Elephant Parade targeted me (with what I assume was a personal ability). Not that I think EP is mafia  but scum can kill and use a personal ability in the same night.


Crystal is my main pick today, but I'll be re-examing it all. More when I'm not pfp...

There were already approximately one billion reasons why Imp shouldn't be scum, to the point where I sort of question your choice of target, but I understand, and I appreciate the confirmation. Also I guess I would've felt less certain about this if EJ hadn't flipped overnight.

On second thought:

NQT: No, seriously, why on earth would you have tracked Imp over any other player? She was at the top of your readlist yesterday and Salvatore flipping scum made her even more town by confirming EJ's greencheck wasn't dishonest.

[Imp]

I confirm nothing in my role or anything I know about explains why EP might be told a day ahead about being unable to target someone, and I also confirm I didn't cause him to become unable to do that targeting.

Thinking on it some more, if Crystal is scum and she survives to this night and has enough victory points to use her kill, if she splats two players, mafia wins, right? If she's town and vigs the wrong player, mafia also win. Mechanically, juice's flip gives us more reason to elim Crystal.

If it's not Crystal, then it's somewhere in {Players:{Duelists:NJW, Imp, NQT}, EP}:
- If scum NK a Duelist, then the remaining Duelists will either gang up on EP or turn on each other with EP being kingmaker.
- If scum NK EP, then it's me v NJW in the finale and maybe by that time Imp will have got her night game together and will have done something useful.

I feel pretty good about both those scenarios.

@NQT: I couldn't use it last night; reread the start-of-day post.

Oh neat, in my excitement to read the flip, I missed that.

Anyway, I learned at the end of the day that I wouldn't be able to use Watch tonight, so that's annoying. (Or target NJW, but that isn't relevant.)

Uh... why isn't that relevant? Who do you think stopped you from targeting NJW? NJW hasn't claimed that. Also, if Watch specifically was blocked it wasn't because it was a Personal ability, as you could still do your taskmaster thing which is also a personal ability, right?

Hey, NQT.  Why am I not green in that?  Didn't you just get through explaining how sure you are I can't be maf?

I'm not scared about people thinking I'm maf.

I'm trying to track the HECK you believe and think, what you're doing and why.

[Imp]

There's also the silliness about...

You supposedly marked Crystal as Eurogame yourself and Crystal says she is too.

We've seen Eurogame flip and know they don't vig. They kill opposite alignment.

They can't mess that up, it's mod guided envies.

How are you not tracking all this stuff town would really care about and mafia might struggle to remember to think about when speaking 'as town'?

[Crystalizedmire]

CM: Who are your townreads?

My only firm townread is Imp. Last day I townread you as well but I'm more open to the possibility of you being scum. So my only real scum leans are NJW and NQT.

Why?

You still have lingering towncred from your playstyle and I'm not very sure duelist chat would've started out with 2/3 scum because it sounds very unbalanced to me. Imp is confirmed town after Euchrejack flip.

[Imp]

CM: Who are your townreads?

My only firm townread is Imp. Last day I townread you as well but I'm more open to the possibility of you being scum. So my only real scum leans are NJW and NQT.

Why?

You still have lingering towncred from your playstyle and I'm not very sure duelist chat would've started out with 2/3 scum because it sounds very unbalanced to me. Imp is confirmed town after Euchrejack flip.

How'd EP go down to lingering towncred?

Why are you apparently sure that there's no godfather or other way to mangle an align inspect, so if the person who said I'm town is town, that for sure is true and not messed with?

Talk about that resources stuff, please.