Ok, reads. Ended up with less time today than I thought, so an unstructured mass of thoughts incoming.
Think Tric is town. Think EJ is town. I don't excuse the start of today, but they did it as town. EP definitely looks town, they're grinding hard and trying to put the game together.
It'd be so, so much easier to go into today scumreading Imp, and claim it was their fault for getting tunnelled on me when we both flip at game end. But no, this is what Imp does as town. Ironically, in many ways it's much more solipsistic than the way they play as mafia or third-party, but what can you do.
I don't know where SalvatoreMonday is, but I really hope they turn up today.
I'm trying to understand people's scumreads on CM... I realise I haven't thought about them much since they made themselves vote-immune D1 and I thought "lol that's in their town range". Not only a pretty weak tell, but also someone's townrange and scumrange can, you know, overlap. There's not a huge amount to go on post-wise, and a lot of it is mechanical. They do seem to have a mechanical agenda they're trying to further, but their scumreads are less clear. They seem to trust EP and Imp pretty fecklessly, and while broadly speaking my reads are in alignment, that level of confidence in another player should be very hard for town to have. Definitely More Thought needed here.
My opinion on NQT has changed quite a bit since D1. It's subtle, but their actions really don't seem to line up with their words, and NQT is someone who generally does what they say they're going to do. They say we need to have discipline and cohesion to achieve a hammer, but D1 they're actively pressuring people to spend their votes on the auction and lose their vote themselves. D2... we've discussed this, but they don't try to start a wagon on CM until the RightMomentTM (read possibly a tad too late for it to happen), despite apparently scumreading CM and wanting multiple wagons. Today, the thing with them putting role info into the thread, which they gave a sensible reply to me on, but I still don't think we needed to know Crystal was Eurogame right away. Unsure about this slot, but by POE it's not looking good.
Juicebox looks dubious as hell, and the only mitigating factor here is that if they were going to lie about their night results, surely they'd say almost anything else. I don't see Juice in a mafia executing any kind of structured plans or strategies with night claims of, respectively, "blocked" and "what NQT did". I'd be voting here if I had any idea how close to hammer we are, but I don't.
Replies and questions in either a second or a few hours, depending on when I'm done.