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[notquitethere]

Looking back at the five remaining players and the two outed scum and seeing who (among these seven) they were trying to remove from the game, let's see what that tells us. Because my time is not infinite, and because it's the most relevant part each day, I'll be mainly be focusing on the very last vote and who they say they suspect. (Note, the most/least suspicious only includes the current living players.)

Who Everyone Votes

D1

Juicebox: Elephant Parade
Salvatore/Hyper: Juicebox
NJW: No one! "I don't even know at this point. I'm not sure if I'd be okay with any elim."
Imp: Auction
Crystal: Auction
NQT:  Auction
Elephant Parade: Juicebox

Conclusion: Scum bussed juicebox on D1, but probably accidentally! Hyper put a distancing vote on juice as his first move but then didn't get to post again! I earlier thought this was a deliberate bus of juicebox but now I can see this is haplessness caused by Hyper having to leave the game early. This spread thus makes Elephant Parade look good

NJW wasn't voting and managed to hold the peculiar position of thinking players giving up their vote was "an impressively terrible idea" but also that he wasn't sure he even wanted an elimination. Still, I think given that Juice was on the block, he would have had an incentive to find a reason to vote for any alternative wagon. This then may actually be a good look for NJW.

Crystal, Imp and NQT are in the auction, and so get to avoid voting at day end. Crystal picks the option that makes her immune to being the elimination candidate. It's interesting that Juice decided not to go that route— quite possibly because he knew he needed to have his vote to counterbalance Hyper's dangling vote on him.

Most suspicious: Crystal.
Least suspicious: Elephant Parade


D2
Juicebox: Crystal
Salvatore/Hyper: Fallacy (late on the wagon, no other targets offered)
NJW: Fallacy (then Juicebox, the Vermillion)
Imp: "Elims I want today, order of preference: #1 NJW2000, #2 Juicebox"
Crystal: Didn't vote. "I was mostly suspicious of Juicebox" but doesn't actually vote Juicebox.
NQT: Fallacy but "I actually prefer Juice or Crystal over Fallacy."
Elephant Parade: Fallacy. Showed some suspicion of Crystal.

A big thing that jumps out at me is that Crystal doesn't vote, despite voicing a suspicion. Imp and NQT both try to float an alternative wagon on Juice. Elephant Parade says it's too late to attempt anything like that.  It's easy with hindsight but of players on the Fallacy wagon, Salvatore's was the weakest vote.

Note that Juice is voting for Crystal but that doesn't tell us anything about Crystal: scum know Fallacy is being eliminated and classically at least one or two of them will be off of the wagon that kills town.

Most suspicious: Crystal.
Least suspicious: Imp

D3

Juicebox: No one (he'd basically given up)
Salvatore/Hyper: No one!
NJW: No one — though is around EOD to hammer. "I'm still trying to figure out where else I'd want an elim in crystal, [NQT] and salvatore"
Imp: Tricmagic "wish we could flip Tric today"
Crystal: Juicebox
NQT: Juicebox
Elephant Parade: Juicebox

D3 everyone has the chance to wagon the person they all suspected on D2: Juicebox. Juicebox is powerless in the face of this, and Salvatore stands back. Unlike in the previous day, now it's Crystal who commits to her read and NJW who does nothing. NJW, in fairness, doesn't want to hammer Salvatore, but opts not to create a second wagon. Functionally, he's in favour of Salvatore, he doesn't concoct a reason to vote for Tric or push hard on an alternative option. Despite being one of the first players awake in the game, he doesn't vote Juice when he has the chance to get in early.

If there was a time anyone was bussing Juice, this would be it as the writing was on the wall. Crystal even says: "Definetly not the best maf to kill today but is the one that I'm sure is maf. He doesn't seem to have much in terms of connections that we can gather to find the other maf." Crystal gives the world's laziest reads, still manages to place Salvatore and Juicebox next to each other despite "completely not paying attention".

Elephant Parade uses vote actively to pressure reads out of Crystal and then quickly settles on Juice. As with other nights, Imp controls the end of the day and so functionally hammers with her inverted vote.

Most suspicious: Crystal & NJW tied.
Least suspicious: Elephant Parade

D4

Salvatore/Hyper: Euchrejack "If EuchreJack was the n1 target, then we live in some kind of bizarro world."
NJW: Crystal, but around for the hammer.
Imp: No one, would like NQT dead but accepting of Salvatore and around for the hammer
Crystal: Salvatore Monday "I think it's salvatore monday because I feel that their suspicion of Euchrejack wasn't genuine and make town doubt that Euchrejack and Imp aren't town."
NQT: Salvatore "POE they are now looking worse than the other players"
Elephant Parade: Salvatore "has never risen above a meh for me, so I'll put my vote there"

NJW is very reasonable on D4 and tries to intervene between me and Imp, saying it's a town fight. Which I eventually recognised. This is easy to read as a town thing, but playing the neutral arbitrater is something scum do all the time because they do it genuinely! They know who's really town after all. He expresses suspicion of Crystal but again is around for the hammer, willing to hammer Salvatore... but he doesn't lead that hunt.

Crystal does the same thing she did D3 and immediately picks scum and then sits on it, not doing much of anything. Having genuine doubts, hunting players, openly being wrong: all town-sided traits that Crystal doesn't really display. Still, she didn't actually need to do this, unlike Juice, Salvatore wasn't necessarily the only target. It's possible that having distanced early, she felt stuck on the wagon when it took off. Her reasoning that Savatore is trying "to make town think Imp and Euchrejack aren't town" doesn't make much sense from a genuine town perspective. Mafia know that Imp and EJ are town, but town don't know that. It's not suspicious for town to try to make other people think their scumpicks are scum! This seems like it genuinely could be a scumslip.

Salvatore has an earlier vote on Crystal, saying "But at the present moment it's not a thunderdome and I'm voting for Crystal "I'm gonna alignment-cop these two players, oops, it didn't work, guess we've got to lynch them both to be sure, teehee" Izedmire instead". This reads to me as possible distancing, but also we saw with his eventual Euchrejack vote that Salvatore did really seem to be trying to feel around for an alternative wagon.

Most suspicious: NJW & Crystal tied
Least suspicious: NQT*

*Not to blow my own horn here, but I'm calling it as I see it.


Well... that took longer that I'd like, and I'm still not 100%, but having looked back I think I'm justified in saying two things:

1. Crystal either has excellent instincts without the need to pay any attention, or is just bussing. On two days she pegged scum first thing and then sat on her vote.
2. Both NJW and Crystal have avoided voting on at least two days. When NJW has done it, he's been around to hammer or it's been a situation where voting could have saved scum. When Crystal could have voted, she expressed suspicion of Juice but didn't actually do anything.

On balance, Crystal is the best pick. If Crystal isn't scum, she needs to give a clear read on who is and vote for them.

[notquitethere]

What about today?

There must be only 1 mafia player remaining. This is an exciting time to win the game for town. A mislynch today could lead to all kinds of night-time extra kill uncertainties— another day is possible but not guaranteed.

NJW: Engages extensively with the mechanics of EJ's house plan. Suspects NQT on POE, saying "One thing that struck me was that as towny and reasonable as NQT looked, they never got anywhere with their approach" — as if the town move to do would be to start being scummy and unreasonable with Imp. This line of attack makes negative sense, it's almost too bad to be a scum attack. Is otherwise analytical in explaining his position, though hasn't reassessed his postion. Is town-reading Crystal despite everything (including his own opinion on previous days) and so only has one suspect.

Imp: Immediately comes in with suspicions developed over the night. Entertains highly tinfoil-hatted conspiracies (what if there are four scum and three of them are in the duelist chat??). It's not productive, but it is very towny in it's paranoid shadowjumping. Tries to work out the mechanics. Hems and haws between NJW and NQT.

Elephant Parade: Keeps his cool, has incisive questions for people, uses vote to pressure as in previous days. Is "lazy" and settles on an NQT after considering both NJW and Crystal.

NQT: Mechanically clears Imp, defends from attacks, and develops two lines of suspicion: vacillating between Crystal and NJW. Goes back and does some vote analysis. Entertains different suspicions.

Crystal: Makes very few posts and doesn't question or engage anyone, merely answering a few things thrown her way. Very passive. Mildly scumleans NJW and NQT, but entertains Elephant Parade as two scum in duelist chat doesn't seem likely to her. Doesn't pay much attention to what's going on.

Concusion: Imp, NQT, Elephant Parade look like town players: they have suspicions, they ask questions, they entertain multiple suspects. Crystal technically suspects almost everyone, does next to nothing and has no commitments. NJW prematurely rules out everyone else except NQT.

I think the preferences of everyone are:

Crystal: 1. NQT -  2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Imp: 1. NQT - 2. NJW - 3. Crystal  4. Elephant Parade
NQT: 1. Crystal - 2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Elephant Parade: 1. NQT - 2. Crystal - 3. NJW - 4. Imp
NJW: 1. NQT .......  2. Crystal - 3. Imp - 4. Elephant Parade

If we put that into points in order of elimination preference:

#1 NQT
#2 Crystal
#3 NJW
#4 Elephant Parade
#5 Imp

If this doesn't shift in the next six hours, I'll full claim, so don't hammer.

[Elephant Parade]

I thought I might be killed, in which case I wanted to share my start-of-night info, and there were no useful abilities left (there haven't been any since N2).

[Imp]

What about today?

There must be only 1 mafia player remaining. This is an exciting time to win the game for town. A mislynch today could lead to all kinds of night-time extra kill uncertainties— another day is possible but not guaranteed.

NJW: Engages extensively with the mechanics of EJ's house plan. Suspects NQT on POE, saying "One thing that struck me was that as towny and reasonable as NQT looked, they never got anywhere with their approach" — as if the town move to do would be to start being scummy and unreasonable with Imp. This line of attack makes negative sense, it's almost too bad to be a scum attack. Is otherwise analytical in explaining his position, though hasn't reassessed his postion. Is town-reading Crystal despite everything (including his own opinion on previous days) and so only has one suspect.

Imp: Immediately comes in with suspicions developed over the night. Entertains highly tinfoil-hatted conspiracies (what if there are four scum and three of them are in the duelist chat??). It's not productive, but it is very towny in it's paranoid shadowjumping. Tries to work out the mechanics. Hems and haws between NJW and NQT.

Elephant Parade: Keeps his cool, has incisive questions for people, uses vote to pressure as in previous days. Is "lazy" and settles on an NQT after considering both NJW and Crystal.

NQT: Mechanically clears Imp, defends from attacks, and develops two lines of suspicion: vacillating between Crystal and NJW. Goes back and does some vote analysis. Entertains different suspicions.

Crystal: Makes very few posts and doesn't question or engage anyone, merely answering a few things thrown her way. Very passive. Mildly scumleans NJW and NQT, but entertains Elephant Parade as two scum in duelist chat doesn't seem likely to her. Doesn't pay much attention to what's going on.

Concusion: Imp, NQT, Elephant Parade look like town players: they have suspicions, they ask questions, they entertain multiple suspects. Crystal technically suspects almost everyone, does next to nothing and has no commitments. NJW prematurely rules out everyone else except NQT.

I think the preferences of everyone are:

Crystal: 1. NQT -  2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Imp: 1. NQT - 2. NJW - 3. Crystal  4. Elephant Parade
NQT: 1. Crystal - 2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Elephant Parade: 1. NQT - 2. Crystal - 3. NJW - 4. Imp
NJW: 1. NQT .......  2. Crystal - 3. Imp - 4. Elephant Parade

If we put that into points in order of elimination preference:

#1 NQT
#2 Crystal
#3 NJW
#4 Elephant Parade
#5 Imp

If this doesn't shift in the next six hours, I'll full claim, so don't hammer.

And who's on top that I lean NJW over you for elim, despite my huge concern about you too?

Because... I said that.  Like twice.

[Elephant Parade]

@NQT: I remind you every time you bring it up that CM took Smithy at the request of multiple players and you continue to not mention that. Mistakes struggle but this is an increasingly implausible one and I think you're leaving it out because it makes it harder to throw shade.

[NJW2000]

NQT: While I appreciate the effort that went into those posts, I do think there are quite a few leaps of logic or misrepresentations involved.

I'm not imagining it am I, NJW and Salvatore never converse in the duelist chat, it's always with me, right?

I did answer him at times - updating him on the thread when he had connectivity issues, for example. I think the reason I didn't have a flowing conversation with him the way you did was that I generally wasn't on at the same time. This is something I'd probably have thought about as scum.

The pro move is clearly to play like Crystal and NJW and avoid making waves so no one omguses you back.

This is a pretty deep misrepresentation of my play. I've had scumreads, I've made claims, and I've even pissed some people off. I'm not sure what else I could be doing, other than throwing my vote around at random. Possibly you're getting "omguses" because players have genuine problems with your votes, such as an earlier one on Imp.

What have you been doing that makes waves?

(Aside from repeatedly bickering with Imp, which I'm not going to townread you for, because it very clearly doesn't get town anywhere.)

And now for the pick of the bunch, on Crystal:

Crystal does the same thing she did D3 and immediately picks scum and then sits on it, not doing much of anything.

...

Most suspicious: NJW & Crystal tied

No commentary required.


I could go on. Your vote analysis is, as I've mentioned several times, blindly focused on votes rather than the actual realities of the thread. For example: I was basically settled on Juicebox the entirety of D3, from this post on. I expressed full intent to hammer if Imp didn't here. I didn't feel the need to vote them because they were pretty obviously scum and clearly about to be eliminated - I wasn't going to end the day early just to get my vote on the hammer.

But I don't think it's worth going into your methods of analysis very deeply at this point, because they're pretty clearly producing your intended outcome each time.

On balance, Crystal is the best pick. If Crystal isn't scum, she needs to give a clear read on who is and vote for them.

To be honest, I suspect you'd like to know whether Crystal is willing to vote me or you today before settling on an elimination.

If you get eliminated today, a possibility you're clearly not too interested in considering, wouldn't it be smart to start talking to other players about what they're going to do D6?

[notquitethere]

Elephant Parade

I thought I might be killed, in which case I wanted to share my start-of-night info, and there were no useful abilities left (there haven't been any since N2).

Got it.

@NQT: I remind you every time you bring it up that CM took Smithy at the request of multiple players and you continue to not mention that. Mistakes struggle but this is an increasingly implausible one and I think you're leaving it out because it makes it harder to throw shade.

I've had to condense down a lot and I just forgot that particular argument. You're probably right. Moreover, I should be clearer that I don't rate the suspiciousness of auction stuff on D1 highly at all, and I don't think Crystal taking something that scummy was particularly dubious. After all, Tric did something similar and I started the whole auction push myself. There's not much in it on that particular day, mostly because town really have very little to go on on D1.

I'm disappointed that you picked up on one mistake in accuracy on the least consequential day, and haven't engaged with the larger point. Has Crystal acted like town or acted like scum over the course of the whole game? Do you see my point about Crystal's mindset in this post:

I think it's one of Euchrejack and Salavtore Monday. Of the two, I think it's salvatore monday because I feel that their suspicion of Euchrejack wasn't genuine and make town doubt that Euchrejack and Imp aren't town.

When I did the first pass of my analysis I was very aware that I could be falling into confirmation bias, and weighing things more heavily against Crystal and discounting scummy things that NJW did, so I took a second pass and I have reason to have pause about NJW... When you read my conclusions about the pair, do you think NJW comes out looking worse?


Imp

And who's on top that I lean NJW over you for elim, despite my huge concern about you too?

Sorry Imp, I thought you were still on my case. I made the list to get this exact kind of clarity.

If that's the case, the order is:

Crystal: 1. NQT -  2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Imp: 1. NJW- 2. NQT - 3. Crystal  4. Elephant Parade
NQT: 1. Crystal - 2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Elephant Parade: 1. NQT - 2. Crystal - 3. NJW - 4. Imp
NJW: 1. NQT .......  2. Crystal - 3. Imp - 4. Elephant Parade

If we put that into points in order of elimination preference:

#1 NQT
#2-3 Crystal & NJW tied
#4 Elephant Parade
#5 Imp

More to the point, what do you think of my thoughts about Crystal? To simplify the argument, in Crystal vs NJW:

- Crystal would have to be bussing, but we have strong reason to believe there would be bussing of (especially) Juicebox and (quite possibly) Salvatore. Crystal has been accurate with her picks but basically never does any active scum hunting.
- NJW has been off-wagon many times in the game in much the same way Juicebox and Salvatore were, though each time he was technically around to hammer. NJW has clear suspicions but often fails to use his vote proactively.

You've engaged a lot with player's metas. Is Crystal's daygame really NAI for her?

[notquitethere]

NJW

I did answer him at times - updating him on the thread when he had connectivity issues, for example. I think the reason I didn't have a flowing conversation with him the way you did was that I generally wasn't on at the same time. This is something I'd probably have thought about as scum.

I think I made this exact point to Imp yesterday. I don't rate this the highest bit of evidence, as you're right, it could just be timezones. Also it takes two to converse, and Salvatore wasn't the chattiest in the chat. But it was something that gave me pause.

This is a pretty deep misrepresentation of my play. I've had scumreads, I've made claims, and I've even pissed some people off. I'm not sure what else I could be doing, other than throwing my vote around at random. Possibly you're getting "omguses" because players have genuine problems with your votes, such as an earlier one on Imp.

What have you been doing that makes waves?

We have a very different view on voting, as I've mentioned before. You want to use yours as a final execution note and are happy to not vote or vote late. I try to use mine proactively (as does Elephant Parade & Imp). I've been actively revising my suspicions, going back over the game multiple times on various days and reassessing my reads. The normal scum move to do would have just been to decide Imp was evil and then kept at that. Easy play. But I stopped and reassessed what I was doing (as you rightly pointed out it was most likely a town-town spat) and eventually came to the right conclusion on D4, just as I made the right call on D3 (following my very publicly stated D2 desire to eliminate Juice). I hope to repeat that success today.

I should say though, that this comment I made was in part out of frustration in the face of possible town losing the game. I feel less frustrated now that I've taken a look back and made a decision for the day. I've made a good faith effort to get the answer right today (which is more than can be said of Crystal).

I could go on. Your vote analysis is, as I've mentioned several times, blindly focused on votes rather than the actual realities of the thread.

Players always say this shit when I do vote analysis. Go back ten years and they all say the same thing. I think votes matter more than words, I accept that not everyone thinks this way, but I do and have done for as long as I've played mafia. I can point to a bunch of games where this is the case but I think you already know this. Moreover, I was very careful to list player's stated suspicions as well as their votes, so this doesn't even land.

If you get eliminated today, a possibility you're clearly not too interested in considering, wouldn't it be smart to start talking to other players about what they're going to do D6?

I already have considered it and discussed what should be done. I can certainly discuss more, of course! I'm off to eat dinner now, but I can find you the post if you can't see it when I get back.

I don't think you get how much I think this day might end in a loss for town if we get this wrong.

[Elephant Parade]

I've had to condense down a lot and I just forgot that particular argument. You're probably right. Moreover, I should be clearer that I don't rate the suspiciousness of auction stuff on D1 highly at all, and I don't think Crystal taking something that scummy was particularly dubious. After all, Tric did something similar and I started the whole auction push myself. There's not much in it on that particular day, mostly because town really have very little to go on on D1.

I'm disappointed that you picked up on one mistake in accuracy on the least consequential day, and haven't engaged with the larger point. Has Crystal acted like town or acted like scum over the course of the whole game? Do you see my point about Crystal's mindset in this post:

I think it's one of Euchrejack and Salavtore Monday. Of the two, I think it's salvatore monday because I feel that their suspicion of Euchrejack wasn't genuine and make town doubt that Euchrejack and Imp aren't town.

When I did the first pass of my analysis I was very aware that I could be falling into confirmation bias, and weighing things more heavily against Crystal and discounting scummy things that NJW did, so I took a second pass and I have reason to have pause about NJW... When you read my conclusions about the pair, do you think NJW comes out looking worse?


Imp

And who's on top that I lean NJW over you for elim, despite my huge concern about you too?

Sorry Imp, I thought you were still on my case. I made the list to get this exact kind of clarity.

If that's the case, the order is:

Crystal: 1. NQT -  2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Imp: 1. NJW- 2. NQT - 3. Crystal  4. Elephant Parade
NQT: 1. Crystal - 2. NJW - 3. Elephant Parade - 4. Imp
Elephant Parade: 1. NQT - 2. Crystal - 3. NJW - 4. Imp
NJW: 1. NQT .......  2. Crystal - 3. Imp - 4. Elephant Parade

If we put that into points in order of elimination preference:

#1 NQT
#2-3 Crystal & NJW tied
#4 Elephant Parade
#5 Imp

More to the point, what do you think of my thoughts about Crystal? To simplify the argument, in Crystal vs NJW:

- Crystal would have to be bussing, but we have strong reason to believe there would be bussing of (especially) Juicebox and (quite possibly) Salvatore. Crystal has been accurate with her picks but basically never does any active scum hunting.
- NJW has been off-wagon many times in the game in much the same way Juicebox and Salvatore were, though each time he was technically around to hammer. NJW has clear suspicions but often fails to use his vote proactively.

You've engaged a lot with player's metas. Is Crystal's daygame really NAI for her?

That one mistake actually does eclipse the entire post for me, is the thing, because it cements a pattern of you fishing for reasons to scumread people instead of taking everything in balance.

I think CM's daygame has indeed been laughably scummy. Despite her sheeping tendencies it's highly unusual for her to avoid commenting on the daygame as she has prior to this Day -- anyone who doubts this should go take a look at, say, Bring Your Own Monster. I just think yours, adjusting for usual scumminess level, has been scummier. I find it easier to believe that CM has played an exceptionally lazy game than that all the times you've pinged my radar are mistakes or coincidences or misreadings.

I agree that NJW's voting pattern has been weird but that isn't enough reason for me to lynch him. Also, I just realized something that probably makes him town: when he alleged that scum controlled or nearly controlled the vote D1 and that lynching was therefore a misplay, he was correct. The players who still had votes remaining were me, him, juicebox, Hyper, and FoU. If he was town then he correctly identified that town only had the votes for a bare, perfectly coordinated hammer. If he was scum then making that allegation was insane and suicidal and fingered 3/5 of the scum team while turning down an opportunity for a free lynch. I'm not going to rule it out, but it'd be a hell of a play.

This is less a question than an allegation, but tracking Imp makes perfect sense for scum!NQT because, in addition to not clearing an additional player, it lets you hard defend her, which, given her inclination toward repaying reads in kind, greatly reduces the odds of you being lynched today. There's a universe where you do it as town but the universe where you do it as scum seems more likely.

[notquitethere]

I'm sorry you feel that way Elephant Parade. I'm clearly not cut out to play this stupid game when I'm held to an impossible standard of perfect town play and players like Crystal just get to snooze through.

If you lynch me today and somehow town survives the night, then I would recommend eliminating Crystal over NJW tomorrow.

[Imp]

I don't have focus to read deeply and properly yet.

At a skim, what I want to say.  And I'll come back and read and consider careful when I can, be a few hours.

We have 1 or 2 maf left.

Apparently CM is Eurogame.

If she's town, she's safe from me. Nothing about my mech could mess with her claimed mech if she's town.  If she's maf and Eurogame she may already be trying to understand why some mech didn't work as expected.  There are some board games based on catching cheaters, I could have submitted one of those, nice coinkidink if so; nice cover story if not.  Of course I don't confirm or deny anything specific and I am very careful to be clear when I do deny something.  And I just don't confirm anything really.  Except that I am town.

If CM is maf, then juice went for her, hunting-style especially once it's known that CM was self targeting.

Self targeting; something I've been accused of by two players still alive.  And the day I was accused of it, people went for me hard too.  Course who knows how often I've been supposedly caught self targeting and if someone maf said so on first catch or made plans for an expected future catch - even by someone else.

I suspect the setup knowledge maf have may include look for self targeters.  I could be wrong, I am guessing.

But any world CM is maf in, maf Juice bussed her pretty hard.  And tried to make her look sus for self targeting.  Later, I am accused of self targeting and people try to hammer on me for a while because I'm also now in duelist.  Maybe a hard choice for maf, add Imp or add CrystalizedMire.

I don't think CM is likely maf.  If she is and her claims and what's revealed about her are reasonably close to true, I think she may have some complications.  I don't think two town kills are likely to fly for the expected maf-reasons if she is maf.  I did get told she's Eurogame quite a few days ago.  I also got to see what Eurogame exactly is a day later.

My biggest concern is if CM is town.  Then what are the maf doing.  And why does it look like maybe Maf NQT would rather have Maf NJW live if they both can't live.

And if there's just one maf.  And it's NQT.  Can town lose if we elim NJW today?

If there's 2 maf, is there one we must elim today, and it actually matters?

So I lean let's elim NJW because... if NQT is maf, I don't think town loses if we do.

And if CM is maf, I don't think town loses if we do.

And if EP is maf, town already lost or something, great job EP and I'll study this game when it's over and be so impressed.

But maybe we do lose if NJW is maf and not elim today.

NQT, whatcha think about my ideas about why CM probably isn't maf?  That Juice stuff.  I won't discuss my possible mech of course.  And if you're town, you shouldn't either.  Which you already did today, but hey, why compound errors.

[notquitethere]

Everything I do gets interpreted through the lens of "NQT is a master manipulator trying to craft a narrative" and everything Crystal does is "she just sucks at this game but also she has perfect reads". Now it's flattering I'm held to a higher standard and maybe I'm completely off base and NJW is actually scum or we're in a tinfoil world where Imp or Elephant Parade are bad. But I really don't see how people genuinely think I was on a team with both Juice and Salvatore. I think Elephant Parade is just being lazy and is in confirmation bias land and this might lose us the game.

[Elephant Parade]

I'm sorry you feel that way Elephant Parade. I'm clearly not cut out to play this stupid game when I'm held to an impossible standard of perfect town play and players like Crystal just get to snooze through.

If you lynch me today and somehow town survives the night, then I would recommend eliminating Crystal over NJW tomorrow.

I mean it isn't just about standard of play. If you had made more questionable plays but fewer of them had been in service of (IMO) forcing scumreads, I wouldn't have this problem. If you're town then sorry, genuinely. Being accused of poor play as town sucks (I've had a lot of that this game!).

I'd like your thoughts on this paragraph:

I agree that NJW's voting pattern has been weird but that isn't enough reason for me to lynch him. Also, I just realized something that probably makes him town: when he alleged that scum controlled or nearly controlled the vote D1 and that lynching was therefore a misplay, he was correct. The players who still had votes remaining were me, him, juicebox, Hyper, and FoU. If he was town then he correctly identified that town only had the votes for a bare, perfectly coordinated hammer. If he was scum then making that allegation was insane and suicidal and fingered 3/5 of the scum team while turning down an opportunity for a free lynch. I'm not going to rule it out, but it'd be a hell of a play.

Everything I do gets interpreted through the lens of "NQT is a master manipulator trying to craft a narrative" and everything Crystal does is "she just sucks at this game but also she has perfect reads". Now it's flattering I'm held to a higher standard and maybe I'm completely off base and NJW is actually scum or we're in a tinfoil world where Imp or Elephant Parade are bad. But I really don't see how people genuinely think I was on a team with both Juice and Salvatore. I think Elephant Parade is just being lazy and is in confirmation bias land and this might lose us the game.

Weirdly, I don't really see you (or most people) making this kind of appeal as scum. @NJW: You've played with scum!NQT before, is he willing to get personal?

[Imp]

Everything I do gets interpreted through the lens of "NQT is a master manipulator trying to craft a narrative" and everything Crystal does is "she just sucks at this game but also she has perfect reads". Now it's flattering I'm held to a higher standard and maybe I'm completely off base and NJW is actually scum or we're in a tinfoil world where Imp or Elephant Parade are bad. But I really don't see how people genuinely think I was on a team with both Juice and Salvatore. I think Elephant Parade is just being lazy and is in confirmation bias land and this might lose us the game.

Cool, so whatcha think of a tentative plan of NJW today.  Apparently EP doesn't think the family mess with the duelist alignment check is gonna go off.

And so presumably I get told you're town.  Or get told you're maf.

Or you get told I'm maf, that'd be fun.

But we have the choices of who to elim and maybe we elim CM tomorrow.  After elim NJW today.

Maf, whoever you are.

What if your right option, if you're alive tonight, is to drop your sword?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH_iDlCdL60

[notquitethere]

Imp

NQT, whatcha think about my ideas about why CM probably isn't maf?  That Juice stuff.  I won't discuss my possible mech of course.  And if you're town, you shouldn't either.  Which you already did today, but hey, why compound errors.

I'm trying to take it on board. You're right that my read of Crystal being scum relies on her and Juice hard bussing each other. I've explained why I think that that was a possible play (everyone knew Juice would be eliminated) but it's possible I've got the sequence of events muddled: did Juice start going hard on Crystal before everyone scumread Juice? I don't think so, but am I wrong?

Cool, so whatcha think of a tentative plan of NJW today.  Apparently EP doesn't think the family mess with the duelist alignment check is gonna go off.

As I said before, mechanically eliminating NJW is actually the best move for me. If he turns out to be town, I have a very good chance of controlling the night game. I've explained why he's my #2 pick, but I think we might have a good chance at surviving to end game if I'm right about Crystal. I will go along with NJW over myself, of course.


EP

If you're town then sorry, genuinely. Being accused of poor play as town sucks (I've had a lot of that this game!).

Thank you. I often have to take a moment to rephrase my posts so I don't get too heated as this game can be very frustrating! When you see the night chat with Imp that will be very apparent...

I'd like your thoughts on this paragraph:

I agree that NJW's voting pattern has been weird but that isn't enough reason for me to lynch him. Also, I just realized something that probably makes him town: when he alleged that scum controlled or nearly controlled the vote D1 and that lynching was therefore a misplay, he was correct. The players who still had votes remaining were me, him, juicebox, Hyper, and FoU. If he was town then he correctly identified that town only had the votes for a bare, perfectly coordinated hammer. If he was scum then making that allegation was insane and suicidal and fingered 3/5 of the scum team while turning down an opportunity for a free lynch. I'm not going to rule it out, but it'd be a hell of a play.

This is an interesting point. I pointed out in my big post that NJW turning down hammering EP at the end of the day looks good for him. Let's take a look at what he says:

I think there's 1-3 scum in the pool of people who had a vote at the end of D1, and 0-2 outside it. So I'd really prefer to elim in the vote-havers today. Probably not EP. I'm willing to give HyperSalvation some time, especially after Hyper's posts late D1. So Juicebox and FoU.[...]
FallacyofUrist: are you willing to eliminate Juicebox today? If not, why?

You're right! He does narrow the pool down to vote-havers and he gets this absolutely correct. It was good instinct (even if he picks the wrong person). And it's a move that you wouldn't expect scum to make. This makes me feel better about my Crystal pick.