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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Game Over: Outplayed  (Read 7273 times)

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #165 on: December 25, 2024, 02:33:33 am »

So Hyper roleblocked/Jailkeepered Tric.  That is confirmed by Tric, so I'm not likely to vote either of them today.

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #166 on: December 25, 2024, 02:35:18 am »

I think I would like to see more from NQT.

Crystalizedmire

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #167 on: December 25, 2024, 04:49:06 pm »

CrystalizedMire, what does the timing of my vote have to do with why you are voting me?  You bring it up, what does it mean to you?
To me it looked like a counterwagon to Vermillionskies wagon. This makes me suspicious of both of you after Starver flipped town. I'm choosing to vote you here because of the possibility of scum hammering on Vermillion.

Okay.  I hope scum don't hammer on me either; one vote that isn't a concern.

I want to hear more from Verm today, and others of course.

Yesterday when I voted for Starver, votes were like this:

Quote
VermillionSkies (2): notquitethere, EuchreJack
Imp (2): TricMagic, NJW2000
TricMagic (1): Hyper
Starver (1): Maximum Spin
Crystalizedmire (1): Imp
NJW2000 (0):
Maximum Spin (0):
EuchreJack (0):
notquitethere (0):
Hyper (0):

Not voting: Crystalizedmire, VermillionSkies

As I said when I voted starver:

Consolidating yeah but I think this is town Verm or he learned a lot from last game's snipe, and I think town Verm more likely.

I don't know what to think about CM, CM's foxed me as anti-town, good player there.  Play is good enough for another day, and I need to consolidate off her.

Jack flipped off of NJW, nobody else agrees on him.  I am concerned about NJW, still low confidence okay with Jack.

Hyper looks newbie and feels likely town.

I'm more sus of Tric than I was.  Tric doesn't seem to be playing, just parroting and tunneling.  Tired or dodging or what I don't know, this isn't a Tric I know.

NQT seems better than had earlier, good to watch but this could be fine.

The way Starver's playing, I can't imagine him being in the final rounds, can't even reason with that playstyle even if he is town.  Everything fluff so far, a hint at trying not to look townie, but what I've seen so far, this can die.  Between Starver and Tric, this.

Who'd I forget?  Max.  That sucks.  Well, it's Max.  Null still, thanks for a flavor of Max I don't hate.

I get that ties are no elim, and we have time, about 2 hours to EoD and FoU saying if 504s are an issue more time.  I'd consolidate to Tric, but Starver seems more off than Tric, Tric could be in his town range but I don't know how to work with Starver's playstyle and this could be anti-town.

You sound confused, counterwagon to verm wagon yet worried scum hammer verm.  That's fine, I don't know what's going on either.  But I voted Starver over Tric because I sussed how Starver was posting more.
Euchrejack literally voted Verm before you voted Starver. It wasn't in the vote count because it was right after the vote count was recorded. I didn't vote vermillion just to be safe. What I feel the most suspicious part is that Vermilion voted Starver right after you did.
Crystal, two things: first, why do you have to specify that your action is non-threatening? second, what’s the purpose of targeting tric n1?
I wanted to specify that because I wanted to be clear that I didn't target Tricmagic with a kill. Secondly, I suspected that Tricmagic was town(due to claiming miller) so I targeted him with a non-threatening action.
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I like birds

FallacyofUrist

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #168 on: December 25, 2024, 11:45:04 pm »

With two dead, one might expect the bickering crows to demand greater violence, a persecution of the traitors within.

Yet they seemed divided, or perhaps, distracted.

Still, time continued to march on.

Quote from: Votecount
Imp (2): Crystalizedmire, TricMagic
Maximum Spin (0):
TricMagic (1): Imp
Crystalizedmire (0):
EuchreJack (0):
notquitethere (1): EuchreJack
VermillionSkies (1): notquitethere
Hyper (0):

No Execution (0):

Not Voting (3): Maximum Spin, VermillionSkies, Hyper

5 to hammer.

Day 2 will end tomorrow at 4:30 PM Central time, Thursday the 26th, or upon hammer.
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FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

Would you like to play a game of Mafia? The subforum is always open to new players.

notquitethere

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 1: An Abundance of Suspicion (10 / 10)
« Reply #169 on: December 26, 2024, 08:07:02 am »

OK, read back on NJW and there really wasn't a lot there. The only thing we can really say about NJW is that he was suspicious of Imp:
It's not suspicious that Imp is inviting people into the game.

It is suspicious that Imp couldn't find something specific to ask about. That has never been a problem before.
The fact that you asked a question that would be answered by any observation about the setup or thread so far... that is more interesting. It was not an attempt to elicit specific information, nor was it likely to make CM or I say anything we wouldn't anyway.
Yeah, I want to see where this leads.

Imp
Very little wavering:
Hmm... NQT is right that Verm has done very little. But my gut is ok with what they have don.

The Imp < Tric < Hyper vote pattern interests me... does make me feel there might be something there. Tric is posting unusually... but they do seem genuinely tired, and it would be an odd bit of coaching to tell them to just try and vote out Imp. Max might do it on the basis that I'm stubborn and would stay on the Imp wagon... but he's more likely to tell a scum partner to just vote someone who doesn't defend themselves well... or to vote me. Hmmm. I still feel ok about my vote, though it's a bit early for associative tells.

With less than an hour before the EOD, Imp moves on to Starver with a reason, but given she was evens to be eliminated herself at that point, it could be read as a vote to save her own skin (which is NAI, but worth pointing out):
 
The way Starver's playing, I can't imagine him being in the final rounds, can't even reason with that playstyle even if he is town.  Everything fluff so far, a hint at trying not to look townie, but what I've seen so far, this can die.  Between Starver and Tric, this.

I'm going to come back with a more positive case and see how more of Imp's actions stack up, but for now I think the only reason mafia would NK NJW is to protect Imp D2. If Imp is town, then why not keep the townie who hates Imp around?

Now of course, you can say this is WIFOM, because mafia would know that I would know this and would pick NJW randomly to place suspicion on Imp... but I don't think if Imp was scum that she would necessarily think like that. What do you all reckon?
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EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #170 on: December 26, 2024, 10:34:48 am »

I won't be upset if Imp gets voted out today, but I am not going to put them at L-1.

notquitethere

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #171 on: December 26, 2024, 11:35:48 am »

The difficult thing about it being the holiday season is that it's hard to tell how much we're in "quiet thread = dead town" territory.

When you get back from eating leftovers, could Max, Hyper and Vermillion weigh in and vote before EOD?
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #172 on: December 26, 2024, 12:01:58 pm »

NQT, who do you think would be teamed with Imp? Give me an ordering.
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notquitethere

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #173 on: December 26, 2024, 01:04:23 pm »

Euchrejack or Vermillion Skies would be best guesses— when the Imp wagon was forming near end of day they also both moved to create alternative wagons.

Hyper is also a strong possibility, if Tric is an Imp enemy, then Hyper role blocking Tric would make sense.

Crystal is unlikely, Tric very unlikely. As for Max? Well you tell me.

At this stage the field is still open, though some possibilities are pretty well closed off. Bare in mind I'm operating on assumption of 2 mafia and 1 mafia ally.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #174 on: December 26, 2024, 01:12:04 pm »

Bare in mind I'm operating on assumption of 2 mafia and 1 mafia ally.
Interesting statement, and one that feels a little like a slip. I personally tend not to consider mallies very likely over other third parties.
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notquitethere

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #175 on: December 26, 2024, 01:28:22 pm »

Check the OP. There are only two kinds of third parties in this setup: SKs and Mallies. There was only one kill last night, so SK is a little less likely (though not impossible — Tric, for example).

I think with 10 players a 2+1 team is more likely than a 3 mafia team. But I could be wrong. You think there are three mafia?
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VermilionSkies

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #176 on: December 26, 2024, 01:48:15 pm »

Hm.

NQT - We might have an arsonist SK.
Additionally, while I agree that Imp wouldn't pull a WIFOM, they have to have a partner and there's nobody else in the game I would point to as being incapable of it.

Hyper, is your roleblock shotted?

I do plan to roleblock someone tonight.

Max, what did you do last night?
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #177 on: December 26, 2024, 02:14:42 pm »

Hm.

NQT - We might have an arsonist SK.
Additionally, while I agree that Imp wouldn't pull a WIFOM, they have to have a partner and there's nobody else in the game I would point to as being incapable of it.

Hyper, is your roleblock shotted?

I do plan to roleblock someone tonight.

Max, what did you do last night?
VermillionSkies you just raised 5 red flags in one post.
Flag 1: ArSONist SK. What here has conviced you we have an arsonist running about when no one has claimed being primed?
Flag 2: Asking if a role is shotted is rolefishing.
Flag 3: Yes most roles seem to be shotted, mine included. Why isn't yours?
Flag 4: Claiming you will roleblock when we have a jailer and JOAT revealed already.
Flag 5: Max happens to be one of my townreads. And do you really need that information today?
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TricMagic

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #178 on: December 26, 2024, 02:15:34 pm »

VermillionSkies Though I made that red.
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VermilionSkies

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 2: Found Admist The Forest (8 / 10)
« Reply #179 on: December 26, 2024, 02:21:36 pm »

Tric -
1. Bold assumption that the prime would inform people.
2. They already claimed their role, I'm figuring out if it's shotting to see if the role holds up.
3/4.
I would rather not be hammered today, my role's pretty good going into mid to late-game.
I have two shots of roleblock. I'm not sure why I snuck a tranquilizer rifle onto a plane, but I have two darts for it.
I claimed both my role and the fact it was shotted early today.
5. The information affects what I'm doing tonight, and I'm not sure I trust your townreads at the moment.
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